QOH since I am mathematically challenged can you help me out? There were 9 out of 10 games where that points did not matter one way or another. Can you tell me what the percentage would be? I think it could be under that 12.5% that we were talking about, but I am really not sure. I would not want to be misleading anyone or giving them false information.
This is simply not true.
I have plenty of confidence, and will put in 1-2 teasers every week. Its a small part of my overall play, but I still play them and they still cost money when I do. I'll do a totals teaser and a spread teaser.
Sitting on a Buff +10, Det PK, Phil +9.5 teaser that all covered, ending with a Baltimore +14. BTW, none of them covered the game spread.
I can now take the cost of the teaser and play NE -6 buying a half. Large middle opportunity, and will at worst break even.
I played Hou/Ind Under, Chi/Det Under, and Wash/Phil Under this am. Went 2-1 on reg lines, and teased them all and they all covered. I'm left with a Dal/NYG Under 47 to close the teaser. I can hedge the cost of the teaser with Dal/NYG OVER 39 as the line is now 46.
The teasers are paying 2/1, so if the hedge loses I get paid even money if the teaser wins or push the wager if the teaser loses.
Teasers are sucker bets for those that play them wrong. Buying thru Zero never a good idea. Road favorites another dangerous play. Making a blanket statement that they are for suckers is ridiculous.
Monica I play NHL everyday. Who do you like? I'm on Minnesota tonight
You know dam well what games I referring to. The Thursday game. KC-4 plus all of those games that were played at 1. You can also count the 4 o' clock games they were 4-0. That brings that to a grand total of 13 out of 14 games where the spread did not matter. What's that come out to. I think about 9.28%. Correct me if I am wrong.
Sounds about right.
Anyway, thanks for the informative posts Queen. It's nice to see someone understands some simple maths as gambling on football is a numbers game where you have a very small edge [if any] over the books. The books have to offer a line on every game, but we can be selective and only participate in games where we see positive expectation.
It's challenging to accurately assess the absolute expectation for each game [or bet] but it is reasonably straightforward to calculate the difference between alternatives. Queen has provided you a good explanation of this. Also teams play to win the game not to cover the spread so there is obvious implied value for teasing, even through zero in some cases [depends on the actual numbers].
BOL QOH
How many tell us? How about if you took the money line when betting a dog instead of taking the points. Would you be better off? You would be saving the juice which would reduce the amount of winners that you would have to pick. I don't know the numbers or the outcome but it would be interesting to start tracking it.
