QL's 2006-2007 European Football thread

[quantumleap]

I love European football! I love betting on it. I love reading about the strategies of who might win. So I have been making guesses on the leagues in the last week or so. I have not had a losing series yet so I will include my YTD record so far.

I had stated that I will not include some of the previous series so I will only include the bets I have made that count toward my YTD record in this thread. It had been a little confusing having the picks in separate threads.

I have been betting European football for the last 3 years and have had a profit in each of those 3 years. I have discovered some additional sources of some very good info on these leagues so I hope to expand my picks.

Here are my YTD picks so far:
7/19/06:
Denmark - Superligaen
Brøndby I.F./Vejle over 2.5 -154 (NordicBet) 1 unit

7/20/06:
Sweden - Allsvenskanliga
BK Häcken/Djurgårdens IF FF Under 2.5 -132 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

1st half/2nd half combo (all bets at Centrebet.com):
Draw/Draw +425 1 unit
Draw/Djurgårdens IF FF +400 1 unit
Djurgårdens IF FF/Djurgårdens IF FF +250 1.5 units

 

[quantumleap]

Brøndby I.F./Vejle over 2.5 -154 (NordicBet) 1 unit - WINNER +0.65
YTD: +0.65

 

[quantumleap]

BK Häcken/Djurgårdens IF FF Under 2.5 -132 (winner: +1.52)
Draw/Draw +425 1 unit (loss: -1.00)
Draw/Djurgårdens IF FF +400 1 unit (winner: +4.00)
Djurgårdens IF FF/Djurgårdens IF FF +250 1.5 units (loss: -1.50)

Series net: +3.02

YTD net: +3.67

 

[quantumleap]

7/22/06:

Sweden - Allsvenskanliga
Helsingborgs -1 +340 [Expekt] (1 unit)
Draw with Helsingborgs -1 handicap +300 [Centrebet] (1 unit)
Örgryte is on the bottom of the league and has only scored 3 goals in 4 home matches. Their primary goalkeep is out due to a red card and the substitute let 3 goals through in the 1st half as a reserve against Kalmar.

This is a bet for Helsingborgs to win by 1 goal or more.

 

[quantumleap]

7/22/06:

UEFA Intertoto 3rd round/2nd leg
Odense/Hibernian Ediborough Under 2.5 -143 (Interwetten) 1 unit
I have to go with the under here again. The 1st leg ended up with Odense scoring the only goal. Hibernian doesn't have the offense and Odense is good on defense. This will allow them to sit on their 1-goal lead.

Lillestrøm SK/Newcastle United Under 2.5 -137 (Fonbet) 1 unit
Lillestrøm SK +0.5 -126 over Newcastle United (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Lillestrøm is going to be a bit tired after a busy schedule and will have to contend against Newcastle's good defensemen. Newcastle will be a bit rusty again as this is the beginning to their new year. Three of their top scorers from last year will not be playing. This low-scoring affair should bode well for the Lillestrøm team getting points at home.

Maribor +0.5 and +1 +112 over Villareal (Pinnacle) 1 unit
I don't see why everyone is high on Villareal. I guess it's because they were Champions League semi-finalists. However they are just starting their season and Maribor will be at home. This is too much to give this home team that will be playing defensively since Villareal must have 2 goals if Maribor is able to score 1.

FC Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk pk and +0.5 -112 over Olympique Marseille (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Marseille is still without Ribery and did not press well last week. Dnipro is at home and will keep up with this French team.

 

[quantumleap]

7/22/06:

Sweden - Allsvenskanliga
Helsingborg -1 +340 [Expekt] (1 unit)
Draw with Helsingborg -1 handicap +300 [Centrebet] (1 unit)
Örgryte is on the bottom of the league and has only scored 3 goals in 4 home matches. Their primary goalkeep is out due to a red card and the substitute let 3 goals through in the 1st half as a reserve against Kalmar.

This is a bet for Helsingborgs to win by 1 goal or more.

Helsingborg 1, Örgryte 1. (-2.00)

YTD: +1.67

 

[quantumleap]

7/22/06:

UEFA Intertoto 3rd round/2nd leg
Odense/Hibernian Ediborough Under 2.5 -143 (Interwetten) 1 unit
I have to go with the under here again. The 1st leg ended up with Odense scoring the only goal. Hibernian doesn't have the offense and Odense is good on defense. This will allow them to sit on their 1-goal lead.

Lillestrøm SK/Newcastle United Under 2.5 -137 (Fonbet) 1 unit
Lillestrøm SK +0.5 -126 over Newcastle United (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Lillestrøm is going to be a bit tired after a busy schedule and will have to contend against Newcastle's good defensemen. Newcastle will be a bit rusty again as this is the beginning to their new year. Three of their top scorers from last year will not be playing. This low-scoring affair should bode well for the Lillestrøm team getting points at home.

Maribor +0.5 and +1 +112 over Villareal (Pinnacle) 1 unit
I don't see why everyone is high on Villareal. I guess it's because they were Champions League semi-finalists. However they are just starting their season and Maribor will be at home. This is too much to give this home team that will be playing defensively since Villareal must have 2 goals if Maribor is able to score 1.

FC Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk pk and +0.5 -112 over Olympique Marseille (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Marseille is still without Ribery and did not press well last week. Dnipro is at home and will keep up with this French team.

The day didn't start out very well as I lost my first 4 bets including the Swedish match. I recovered and won 1 1/2 of the remaining 2 bets. I had a couple late goals cause the unders to lose but I got a late goal for Dnipro to pull that one out.

Hibernian 2, Odense 1 (-1.00)
Newcastle 3, Lillestrøm 0 (-2.00)
Maribor 1, Villareal 1 (+1.12)
Dnipro 2, Marseille 2 (+0.45)

Series net: -1.43

YTD net: +0.23

 

[quantumleap]

07/23/06:

Russian Premier League
CSKA Moscow/PFK Kryliya Sovetov Samara under 2.5 +105 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Only 3 out of 12 of Moscow's matches have gone over 2.5 this season and only 2 of Kryliya's 7 away matches have gone over. The only concern I have is that Kryliya has scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 away matches or else I would put more units on this one.

FK Torpedo Moscow/FK Zenit St. Petersburg under 2.5 -141 (Pinnacle) 2 units
Only 2 of Torpedos matches have gone over 2.5 this season and none of them were at home. Zenit's last 5 matches have all gone under including the last 3 matches that resulted in 0-0 scores.

Finland Veikkausliga
IFK Mariehamn/FC Honka Espoo over 2.5 -131 (Pinnacle) 3 units
Honka's number of goals scored for their home matches are 2-4-5-6. Mariehamn averages 1.75 goals per match.

Finland Ykkönen League
FC Viikingit Helsinki/Rovaniemi PS over 2.5 -111 (bet365) 3 units
Only 2 of 11 matches this year have NOT gone over 2.5 for Viikingit.

 

[quantumleap]

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 307pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=409 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 307pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 14957" width=409><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 307pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=409 height=17>Norway - Tippelaegen</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE style="WIDTH: 307pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=409 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 307pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 14957" width=409><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 307pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=409 height=17>Hamar Kam/Sandefjord over 2.5 -153 (Centrebet) 2 units
It's Hamar Time as Hamar Kam has gone under 2.5 only 4 matches out of 13 and only 2 out of 7 home matches. Sandefjord has gone over 4 out of 6 away matches and one of the 2 that went under was the first match of the season that ended 0-0.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[quantumleap]

Norway - Tippelaegen
Rosenborg/Start Kristiansand under 2.5 and 3 -110 (Pinnacle) 2 units
Start is a team that plays defensively at home. They have 3 goals in 6 home matches and have only allowed 4 in that time. Rosenborg has 10 goals in 6 road matches however I believe Start's slow-down strategy will prevent them from causing this one to go over.

 

[quantumleap]

Norway - Adeccoligaen
Bodø-Glimt/Moss over 2.5 -167 (Interwetten) 2 units
While Moss has no problem scoring they also have no problem in allowing opponents to score in their wide-open game style. They have gone over 6 out of their last 7 matches including 5 out of 6 home matches for the season. Bodø-Glimt has scored 31 goals in 13 matches.

Hødd/Manglerud Star-FK Oslo Øst draw +275 (Centrebet) 2 units
Manglerud Star-FK Oslo Øst +170 over Hødd (bet365) 3 units
This is a bet for MS not to lose. Hødd has lost their last 7 matches. The reason I didn't take the MS victory is because they have had a few ties lately.

Finland - Veikkausliga
HJK Helsinki +105 over FC Lahti (Pinnacle, 3-way betting) 1 unit
Lahti has several injuries and has lost 4 out of their last 5 matches.

 

[quantumleap]

Well the big loss was that Hødd wins their 1st game in 8 tries after I bet on them. Couple that with a loss in the 90th minute and you have a net loss for the day.

Here are the results:
CSKA Moscow/PFK Kryliya Sovetov Samara under 2.5 +105 (Pinnacle) 1 unit/WINNER +1.05
FK Torpedo Moscow/FK Zenit St. Petersburg under 2.5 -141 (Pinnacle) 2 units/Loss -2.00
IFK Mariehamn/FC Honka Espoo over 2.5 -131 (Pinnacle) 3 units/WINNER +2.29
FC Viikingit Helsinki/Rovaniemi PS over 2.5 -111 (bet365) 3 units/Loss -3.00
Hamar Kam/Sandefjord over 2.5 -153 (Centrebet) 2 units/WINNER +1.30
Rosenborg/Start Kristiansand under 2.5 and 3 -110 (Pinnacle) 2 units,1/2 loss,1/2 draw -1.00
Bodø-Glimt/Moss over 2.5 -167 (Interwetten) 2 units/Loss -2.00
Hødd/Manglerud Star-FK Oslo Øst draw +275 (Centrebet) 2 units/Loss -2.00
Manglerud Star-FK Oslo Øst +170 over Hødd (bet365) 3 units/Loss -3.00
HJK Helsinki +105 over FC Lahti (Pinnacle, 3-way betting) 1 unit/WINNER +1.05

Net for the day:
-7.31

YTD: -7.08

 

[quantumleap]

Sweden - Allsvenskanliga
FF GAIS Göteborg pk +102 over Östers IF Växjö 3 units
Here we have another team that has not won at home (Östers). In fact, they have lost their last 5 matches altogether. While GAIS isn't the best team in the league I feel the odds here are good.

 

[untone]

Sweden - Allsvenskanliga
FF GAIS Göteborg pk +102 over Östers IF Växjö 3 units
Here we have another team that has not won at home (Östers). In fact, they have lost their last 5 matches altogether. While GAIS isn't the best team in the league I feel the odds here are good.

i agree with that..

 

[Igm]

I love the under 2 1/2 that I got at Bet Cris.

 

[quantumleap]

So Östers fails to score in 4 out of their 5 home matches and falls behind 0-2 to GAIS at half. Then they come back to make this a 2-2 draw.

PUSH.

 

[quantumleap]

Finland Ykkönen League
FC Viikingit Helsinki -125 over Pallokerho-35 Helsinki (bet365, 3-way)
Viikingit has never failed to score at home. P-35 only has 2 goals on the road. This is a bet for Viikingit to win. If the match ends in a draw this bet loses.

 

[quantumleap]

Finland Ykkönen League
FC Viikingit Helsinki -125 over Pallokerho-35 Helsinki (bet365, 3-way)
Viikingit has never failed to score at home. P-35 only has 2 goals on the road. This is a bet for Viikingit to win. If the match ends in a draw this bet loses.

Adding 1 more unit to this one for a total of 2 units. Viikingit beat P-35 5-0 earlier in the season. This is set for Thursday morning.

 

[quantumleap]

Sorry for the late entry.

UEFA Cup-Q
CSKA Sofia/Dinamo Tirana under 3.5 and 4 +102 (Pinnacle) 3 units
CSKA have a lot of players that are either injured or have been traded. Emil Gargorov was traded and he was one of their best strikers. CSKA won the first leg 1-0. I think they will be happy to get a couple goals and sit on their lead against a much weaker Dinamo team.

 

[quantumleap]

Finland Ykkönen League
FC Viikingit Helsinki -125 over Pallokerho-35 Helsinki (bet365, 3-way)
Viikingit has never failed to score at home. P-35 only has 2 goals on the road. This is a bet for Viikingit to win. If the match ends in a draw this bet loses.

Viikingit 2, P-35 1. WINNER! +1.60

YTD: -5.48