Purdue vs Wisconsin 11/5/2011

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Wisconsin is a heavy favorite winning 95% of simulations over Purdue. Russell Wilson is averaging 200 passing yards and 2 TDs per simulation and Montee Ball is projected for 114 rushing yards and a 91% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 5% of simulations where Purdue wins, Caleb TerBush averages 1.34 TD passes vs 0.37 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.71 TDs to 0.5 interceptions. Ralph Bolden averages 59 rushing yards and 0.46 rushing TDs when Purdue wins and 51 yards and 0.21 TDs in losses. Wisconsin has a 37% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 98% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is WIS -26.5 --- Over/Under line is 60

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