Sounds like you're hung up on the NEXT game and predicting whether they will win or lose TODAY. I'm not saying that. I just gave laws of probability of a consecutive streak given an assumed true occurence rate. That's all. Don't confuse game odds with streak odds. Of course the Phils would never be -10000 because the oddsmakers have to keep each game independent to promote proper action. For the bookmakers and bettors, every game IS independent and I don't recommend anyone be foolish enough to bet on or against streaks because we don't know when it will end.
Again, it is just a general calculation based on assumed true odds (I said we have to assume the Phils were a true .537 for sake of the example). It's just simple mathematics of a .537 probability (or .463 for a loss) having the likelihood of occuring a # of consecutive times.
You have to realize that at .463, the odds of consecutive occurences gets gradually lower EACH GAME. You can't single out the 7th game at 0.46% and factor that into a wager. The first loss is 46.3% and then it basically gets cut in half with every consecutive occurence after that. The longer it goes, the less likely it is to continue. That's all I'm saying.
