Pulled all my money out of the stockmarket today

[PatsFan1283]

I personally think there will be a recession in around 18-24 months when the fiscal stimulus from increased spending/tax cuts begins to wear off. I think a lot of the malinvestment that has built up because of ZIRP probably comes due then as well.

But I'm not trying to bet much on that analysis as I've been served up plenty of humility from my own feeble attempts at market timing.

I'm not a fan of goldbugging as a hedge against this either though really. Too many things have to go right to time when to invest in gold and when to unload it. That's why even people like Schiff that pegged the housing bubble still didn't really monetize their opinions very well.

 

[Michelangelo]

The Tea Party went away for only one reason, because Obama weaponized the IRS.

Good taxpaying citizens cannot afford to be targeted and entangled with a malicious IRS.

They are wise enough to know that, so Tea Party members went back underground, silenced by a corrupt, all powerful IRS.

The crimes of the Obama administration were much greater, as not even in the same league, than any Trump payment to a couple of pornstars, yet they go unchallenged.

This is the danger of the Deep State in neon lights. Silencing the sane voices of good Americans.

 

[brucefan]

You've never predicted a market crash? Really? I could find tons of posts with you predicting market/economic crash for years. And if you said the economy would crash, well obviously 95% of the time the market would crash with it. But I'm pretty sure you've said both.

And yes, I'm familiar with all of the austrian/free market arguments for why these asset bubbles will deflate. I'm sympathetic to most of them besides the extreme bear scenarios.

But that doesn't change the fact you've been wrong and SPY has crushed your thesis over the last 8-10 years. At some point you will get to be right, but at what cost? SPY is up 320% since '09 and gold is down 40% since '11. You're going to need something very cataclysmic to get back to even. A true black swan. Will it happen? Maybe but I'd probably still say SPY > Gold over the next 10 years if you put a gun to my dome.

I have been, and still own many stocks

Just check the finance forum

. I find it hard to believe any free market economist that has predicted a crash until now . Too much global QE

Its also why we cant get any real growth, and this will all end in stagflation , at best


I own lots of gold stocks too, and those haven't worked out yet

They will . Im not trying to be right so you can come up here and say Bruce was right but he has been a broken clock . Obviously I dont care what people think ( I believe Jerry Sandusky is innocent !)

I want to be right so I, we, can make money

 

[PatsFan1283]

I have been, and still own many stocks

Just check the finance forum

. I find it hard to believe any free market economist that has predicted a crash until now . Too much global QE

Its also why we cant get any real growth, and this will all end in stagflation , at best


I own lots of gold stocks too, and those haven't worked out yet

They will . Im not trying to be right so you can come up here and say Bruce was right but he has been a broken clock . Obviously I dont care what people think ( I believe Jerry Sandusky is innocent !)

I want to be right so I, we, can make money

So then what would the fed backing off their rate hike policy entail to you? Powell sounded pretty dovish on Friday.

Why do you think gold will benefit from the increased deficits from a recession? What if there are no fiscal/monetary levers left and it just leads to austerity? Then gold would be screwed. What if gold becomes more in demand and extraction methods get better? Then the price is just going to stabilize.

I can see owning a few mining stocks because they've been beaten down so much and some of them could 10x if gold were to hit new highs but the actual metal doesn't seem to have a ton of upside unless you truly believe there is going to be a dollar crisis. And I'm more of the opinion that I'll have to see that to believe it (atleast at present time)

 

[brucefan]

If this is a prediction then it has to be asked...

What is A? What would be "backing off" to you. We've had 5 raises in the last 20 months. Would 5 more over the next 20 be backing off? What's the number?

What is B? They can wind down as slow as they want.

And I don't necessarily think you are wrong (I'll admit I have no clue what the result of this experiment will be as there is really no historical precedence) but you should atleast define all the variables if you are going to make a prediction like that.

If Powell raises 3x instead of 5x over the next 20 months, you can just say they continued to prop it up. In effect, you can never be wrong regardless of what happens when your statements are so vague.

No, they will start talking about the end of rate hikes for the "foreseeable future" That language will start the greatest bull run gold has ever seen . What triggers the sentiment change will be the slowing of our economy which will happen soon . One qtr of strong GDP growth that pulled forward a lot of demand does not make an economic boom . Its silly really.

People still actually believe that we solved our economic woes from 2008 ? Yes we have had some small rate hikes , but we have far from normalized rates .

The feds balance sheet has to shrink before we call all the bailouts, and QE a success.

Land the plane before you call your flight a success

In the fall the fed will have a 600 billion dollar annual run rate , we will be running trillion dollar deficits , at a minimum . Add some more rate hikes, possibly the end of QE or continued tapering by the ECB, and watch out . That of course doesn't include a strong performance by the Dems in the midterms .

As I am sure you aware , I believe Fed will sacrifice the dollar and let inflation run wild before they sacrifice the market and the economy, to have deep recession, and market correction that it truly needs

The question is what will be enough to stop the selling this time ?

QE4 is coming, just a matter of time .

 

[PatsFan1283]

You just said there will be a 50% decline in 6 months if rate hikes continue, but then said you don't think they will continue.

If that's the case, then you don't think there will be a haircut coming.

As far as the economy going into recession, what do you think the catalyst will be if it isn't rate hikes?


What gold miners do you like?

 

[Ricboff]

$ROKU has been on fire the last couple of weeks - - - $AMD and $NFLX had a monster week . .. .
also looking for $GOOGL and $AMZN to break out again soon

yupper

GOOG answering Friday's chart signals, she had probability square on her side..stacked

can AMZN break the ceiling?

 

[brucefan]

You just said there will be a 50% decline in 6 months if rate hikes continue, but then said you don't think they will continue.

If that's the case, then you don't think there will be a haircut coming.

As far as the economy going into recession, what do you think the catalyst will be if it isn't rate hikes?


What gold miners do you like?

We would already be in recession if Hilary was elected . Trump did some good things to delay the inevitable . Rate hikes wont stop until its too late. Rates should normalize but no one wants to live through that pain .

Correct . I dont think the Fed will let a recession settle in, and a market pullback happen, without reversing course ie: lowering rates, and kicking in QE4 in some form or another .
That may halt the slide , but this time I dont think the market rally's like last time, because then everyone will know these temporary measures, were actually just debt monetization

AG is the best pure play for Silver

Gold stocks I would look at the leveraged ETFS JNUG, and NUGT to get the best bang for your buck

Individual producers would be PVG , FNV, SAND , AUY , and KL

Doing a quick screen, here are 4 names that pop up as trading above their long term moving avg, even though gold has gotten beaten up

No. Ticker Company Sector Industry Country Market Cap P/E Price Change Volume 1 GORO Gold Resource Corporation Basic Materials Gold USA 302.63M 19.78 5.28 0.38% 308,967 2 GSV Gold Standard Ventures Corp Basic Materials Gold Canada 416.98M - 1.64 -1.20% 206,753 3 KL Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. Basic Materials Gold Canada 4.14B 21.29 19.61 0.41% 886,501 4 SA Seabridge Gold Inc. Basic Materials Gold Canada 642.73M - 11.40 1.79% 213,576 <tbody> </tbody>

Filters: ind:gold sec:basicmaterials ta_sma200a export <tbody> </tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[PatsFan1283]

Fair enough Bruce, but then your prediction in #229 isn't much of a prediction if we're pretty much all in agreement that if there is economic weakness that the fed will reverse course in various ways (rate cuts, QE)

So then you can't really ever be wrong.

Not really sure why you need a thread time stamped when it isn't much of a prediction.


If you said something to the effect of "Regardless of what the fed does, equities will fall 50% in XYZ duration and we will be in recession by ABC" that would be a little more of a hot take.

 

[5teamparlay]

Still hanging out on the sidelines

[h=1]Nasdaq Hits New Record as It Passes 8000 Mark[/h][h=2]The surge underscores how tech shares like Netflix and Amazon have powered the U.S. stock market this year[/h]

 

[viking611]

someone "lost" a LOT of money pulling out april '17

 

[PatsFan1283]

20% is nothing to sneeze at but in the grand scheme of things it’s not too bad. We’ve all had our bouts with outsmarting ourselves as far as the equity markets go I’m sure. More power to anyone who hasn’t.

 

[Ricboff]

It truly is incredible that the Tea Party just shriveled up and died because "their guy" is in power . Makes me embarrassed to say I was one

Trump is already setting the table to blame the Fed when it comes tumbling down

When the next recession hits....... 2 trillion, 3 ? ugh , ugly

Trump says the Fed has ‘gone crazy’ after the Dow tumbles 830 points in one day


LMFAO

‘I think the Fed is making a mistake. It’s so tight, I think the Fed has gone crazy’​

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[PatsFan1283]

FAANG is really carrying everything right now.

If that continues+massive $ flowing into indexes then I would think equal weighted would beat market weighted for atleast a 5 year period. There has to be some mean regression with those companies.

It's crazy how much of the market relies on these stocks now. Amazon, Apple and Google today lost the value of Comcast as a company. Think about that for a second. In 7 hours, they lost the value of one of the biggest telecom companies in the world.

So goes big tech, so goes the market for better or worse as far as right now is concerned.

 

[Ricboff]

tomorrow should be a spectacular day. Nearly everything is approaching its 200 SMA, she either bounces , acts as brick wall or breaks. If it breaks, just look out below

the close on the qqq's was crazy- lost just under 1% in the last 8 minutes of trading.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I do wonder if a 20% decline could lead to a bigger decline just because the wealth effect of asset prices have played a huge role in the economy. Going on 9.5 years of a near 300% bull run, a lot of people are flush from the runups. Well, if that gets chopped by 1/3rd to 1/4th, that's some serious money in real dollar terms. You're talking 375k-500k on 1.5m. That's the price of a nice house in most areas.

It doesn't feel like upper middle class families were losing the value of a house in previous market downturns in American history. So I think that could definitely cause a curb in consumption if anything close to it were to occur.

 

[Recon792]

Or could just be they are resetting prices lower before the next earnings period coming up

 

[Ricboff]

looking forward to seeing tomorrow's candlesticks at 3:45 pm-- for the qqq's ; getting stretched from the 20 SMA , stupid oversold and approaching a CRITICAL level of support. Todays volume was disturbing

 

[mickj]

I know MA is moving average. What's S?

 

[brucefan]