Be wary of winners in preseason QB competitions
Think back to a year ago at this time. The Arizona Cardinals were heading into training camp with a supposed question mark at quarterback.
Only young phenom Matt Leinart never put up much of a fight, and veteran Kurt Warner walked back under center. Warner went on to his finest season since 2001, taking the Cardinals' on that surprising Super Bowl run.
History is unlikely to repeat itself in any of this year's preseason quarterback competitions. These battles earn the headlines and breathless attention, even though the reality is usually only subpar teams can't figure out whom to start.
•Cleveland Browns. This is the headline fight of the year between Derek Anderson, with 29 touchdowns two years ago and nine last season, and wunderkind Brady Quinn. The problem is, it isn't clear what the winner gets. The Browns' best wide receiver can't catch, and the second-best one is a kick returner.
New coach Eric Mangini is the wild card; whomever he feels more comfortable with will get the job, and Mangini has turned as secretive as mentor Bill Belichick. We already know what Anderson isn't, and he probably would not be worth messing around with again. Quinn is the unknown and could be worth a pick. Yet the Browns seem unlikely to turn into a high-scoring team, which is what Quinn will need to become a significant fantasy factor.
•Detroit Lions. Matthew Stafford should be the no-brainer starter, even though Daunte Culpepper made noise late in the offseason. Culpepper undoubtedly would be better for WR Calvin Johnson, at least early on, because Stafford would have some ugly games even when the Lions get blown out and have to throw 45 times.
After a full offseason of work, Culpepper should be in good enough shape to have decent stats after looking lethargic and in poor condition last year. If he starts, and if you pick him up, understand that you'll be playing him on borrowed time and Stafford probably will take over after a few losses.
•New York Jets. The Jets did not tap Mark Sanchez as their new savior to sit him on the bench for very long. He will have to push ahead of Kellen Clemens, who has thrown five TD passes in three seasons with the Jets. Clemens keeps getting in the mix but never asserts himself enough to play for very long. The same probably will happen this year with Sanchez taking over very early or as soon as Clemens struggles, perhaps Week 2.
New coach Rex Ryan watched rookie Joe Flacco do wonders for the Baltimore Ravens last season, and Flacco wasn't supposed to be ready to play so soon. So Ryan is not likely to fear playing Sanchez, who has to hope his receivers step up. Jerricho Cotchery is the only established wide receiver, and tight end Dustin Keller started to make an impact toward the end of last season. Remember, even though Flacco started, he was not much of a fantasy quarterback. Sanchez might be the same initially with the Jets focused on defense and running.
•Oakland Raiders. Veteran Jeff Garcia was supposed to be a comforting presence behind young JaMarcus Russell. But Russell apparently ruffled enough feathers in the offseason that Garcia might wind up pushing him aside. And the passing offense is such a mess that it might not matter who starts.
Garcia, 39, clearly is near the end of his career, while Russell is entering his third season. And Garcia has not thrown more than 13 TD passes in a season since 2003. Russell hit 13 TDs last year when he and the Raiders supposedly could do little right. If Garcia starts, the Raiders might win an extra game or two, but you practically can forget about their offense.
•San Francisco 49ers. No way Alex Smith gets a start, right? Not after the former No. 1 overall pick bumbled his way through three seasons of losing and injury. Well, coach Mike Singletary, conducting his first training camp, will give Smith a crack against Shaun Hill. Smith still has not played very much because he has been hurt and benched for much of his NFL career. Considering Singletary also wants to run more, Smith seems like a long shot to do much even if he cashes the long-shot bet of starting.
Hill is a different story. He never looks like he should be much of a player but has been surprisingly productive. In nine games last season, he accounted for at least two TDs in six of them, and he should have some trust already from Singletary. Hill sprayed five of his eight interceptions in two games and needs to cut out those clumps if he wants to start. But if he does, he could turn into a reliable backup.
•Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers got rid of their coach (Jon Gruden) who loved to collect quarterbacks and then promptly spent the offseason collecting quarterbacks. Veteran Byron Leftwich is the name most people latch on to because he has been a starter before. Leftwich's limitations, specifically a 10-second windup, are well-known, and no team is going very far with him.
Luke McCown is an unknown with very modest results in limited playing time over his first five seasons. No matter what you might hear out of the Bucs, if he were a legitimate threat, he probably would have gotten more playing time by now — somewhere. The other option is first-round pick Josh Freeman, who has physical ability but is a significant project. He would be a huge risk if he played significantly this season.
Whomever starts will have a couple of nice options as WR Antonio Bryant tries to back up last year's breakout and TE Kellen Winslow II attempts to assert himself again. That might mean a few nice fantasy games, especially if Tampa Bay is behind frequently and can't run consistently.
Think back to a year ago at this time. The Arizona Cardinals were heading into training camp with a supposed question mark at quarterback.
Only young phenom Matt Leinart never put up much of a fight, and veteran Kurt Warner walked back under center. Warner went on to his finest season since 2001, taking the Cardinals' on that surprising Super Bowl run.
History is unlikely to repeat itself in any of this year's preseason quarterback competitions. These battles earn the headlines and breathless attention, even though the reality is usually only subpar teams can't figure out whom to start.
•Cleveland Browns. This is the headline fight of the year between Derek Anderson, with 29 touchdowns two years ago and nine last season, and wunderkind Brady Quinn. The problem is, it isn't clear what the winner gets. The Browns' best wide receiver can't catch, and the second-best one is a kick returner.
New coach Eric Mangini is the wild card; whomever he feels more comfortable with will get the job, and Mangini has turned as secretive as mentor Bill Belichick. We already know what Anderson isn't, and he probably would not be worth messing around with again. Quinn is the unknown and could be worth a pick. Yet the Browns seem unlikely to turn into a high-scoring team, which is what Quinn will need to become a significant fantasy factor.
•Detroit Lions. Matthew Stafford should be the no-brainer starter, even though Daunte Culpepper made noise late in the offseason. Culpepper undoubtedly would be better for WR Calvin Johnson, at least early on, because Stafford would have some ugly games even when the Lions get blown out and have to throw 45 times.
After a full offseason of work, Culpepper should be in good enough shape to have decent stats after looking lethargic and in poor condition last year. If he starts, and if you pick him up, understand that you'll be playing him on borrowed time and Stafford probably will take over after a few losses.
•New York Jets. The Jets did not tap Mark Sanchez as their new savior to sit him on the bench for very long. He will have to push ahead of Kellen Clemens, who has thrown five TD passes in three seasons with the Jets. Clemens keeps getting in the mix but never asserts himself enough to play for very long. The same probably will happen this year with Sanchez taking over very early or as soon as Clemens struggles, perhaps Week 2.
New coach Rex Ryan watched rookie Joe Flacco do wonders for the Baltimore Ravens last season, and Flacco wasn't supposed to be ready to play so soon. So Ryan is not likely to fear playing Sanchez, who has to hope his receivers step up. Jerricho Cotchery is the only established wide receiver, and tight end Dustin Keller started to make an impact toward the end of last season. Remember, even though Flacco started, he was not much of a fantasy quarterback. Sanchez might be the same initially with the Jets focused on defense and running.
•Oakland Raiders. Veteran Jeff Garcia was supposed to be a comforting presence behind young JaMarcus Russell. But Russell apparently ruffled enough feathers in the offseason that Garcia might wind up pushing him aside. And the passing offense is such a mess that it might not matter who starts.
Garcia, 39, clearly is near the end of his career, while Russell is entering his third season. And Garcia has not thrown more than 13 TD passes in a season since 2003. Russell hit 13 TDs last year when he and the Raiders supposedly could do little right. If Garcia starts, the Raiders might win an extra game or two, but you practically can forget about their offense.
•San Francisco 49ers. No way Alex Smith gets a start, right? Not after the former No. 1 overall pick bumbled his way through three seasons of losing and injury. Well, coach Mike Singletary, conducting his first training camp, will give Smith a crack against Shaun Hill. Smith still has not played very much because he has been hurt and benched for much of his NFL career. Considering Singletary also wants to run more, Smith seems like a long shot to do much even if he cashes the long-shot bet of starting.
Hill is a different story. He never looks like he should be much of a player but has been surprisingly productive. In nine games last season, he accounted for at least two TDs in six of them, and he should have some trust already from Singletary. Hill sprayed five of his eight interceptions in two games and needs to cut out those clumps if he wants to start. But if he does, he could turn into a reliable backup.
•Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers got rid of their coach (Jon Gruden) who loved to collect quarterbacks and then promptly spent the offseason collecting quarterbacks. Veteran Byron Leftwich is the name most people latch on to because he has been a starter before. Leftwich's limitations, specifically a 10-second windup, are well-known, and no team is going very far with him.
Luke McCown is an unknown with very modest results in limited playing time over his first five seasons. No matter what you might hear out of the Bucs, if he were a legitimate threat, he probably would have gotten more playing time by now — somewhere. The other option is first-round pick Josh Freeman, who has physical ability but is a significant project. He would be a huge risk if he played significantly this season.
Whomever starts will have a couple of nice options as WR Antonio Bryant tries to back up last year's breakout and TE Kellen Winslow II attempts to assert himself again. That might mean a few nice fantasy games, especially if Tampa Bay is behind frequently and can't run consistently.
