Premiership for the weekend of 11/20/05

[quantumleap]

Bolton pk +105 over Birmingham (bet365)
The home field is often an advantage in the EPL and also the French Ligue 1. That's why I bet them. But there are some situations like this that cause the books to hang a line that goes too far in favor of the home team. Birmingham is just such a team.

Birmingham has not won a match at home in 6 tries. In fact, they have lost 5 times and only scored 3 goals. Bolton is 3rd in the league and has won 3 times on the road. They look at this match as a chance to gain on 2nd place Wigan who are at home to Arsenal.

More later when more books come out with their lines.

 

[quantumleap]

Chelsea -1 and -1.5 +104 over Newcastle (PointBet)
I have to go with Chelsea here at home. After getting some much-needed rest the Blues will be looking to get a win at home against Newcastle who have found it hard to score on the road.

Man City -0.5 +106 over Blackburn (PointBet)
Man City has done well at home while Blackburn has struggled on the road. Two opposite teams.

Everton/West Brom under 2.5 -165 (betCRIS) (3 units)
Everton has scored 4 goals in 11 matches and has yet to participate in a match that has gone over 2.5 this season. West Brom has scored 1 goal in 6 road matches this year. People, it doesn't get any easier than this.

West Ham/Tottenham under 2.5 -152 (Mrbookmaker)
West Ham has scored 4 goals in 5 road matches.Tottenham has gone over 2.5 only once so far this season.

 

[Nylon]

Wazzup Quantum.....you live in the O.C.?

I think you got a mix-up,
westbrom is @ home vs
everton

I think West Brom avg total goals for their home games are 3, I also guess Everton is due an over match sometime this year, this might be it. I'll stay away from this one, what do you think about WIGAN-ARESENAL Under, it seems like a decent play.


I may parlay one of these EPL games w/ today's Valez Sarsfield-Olimpo under 2.5. Some value here.

 

[quantumleap]

I live in Orange County, Calif. Recently I've been doing some consulting in San Diego so I'm splitting my time between places.

Right you are though regarding West Brom being at home. However, they have only scored 2 goals in their last 5 EPL matches and that was in 1 game so this bet still stands. The thing I like about Everton unders is that they seem to play to low-scoring matches rather than just not being able to score. In other words, their strategy is more suited to keep the other team from scoring, whereas other teams' strategy is to try to score first.

 

[quantumleap]

Chelsea 3, Newcastle 0 +1.04
Man City 0, Blackburn 0 -1.00

 

[quantumleap]

West Brom 4, Everton 0 -1.00

All of the EPL matches today went over 2.5 except for one. It seems the unders may not have the value they once had. I still believe West Ham/Tottenham still has a value on the under though.

 

[Nylon]

Wow, plenty EPL Overs, glad I layed off on that Everton match as I had a hinch the OVER was finally due! ............reminds me of last year when I used to play Russian Prem. games, that league had plenty of unders w/ inflated lines like -222, I don't know if the fix was in or not, but everytime the the top 4 under teams got together, the game amazingly went Over???? Coincidence? Doubt it, but it's like going to the "well" to many times, your bound to come up empty eventually.Stay profitable

 

[quantumleap]

Wow, plenty EPL Overs, glad I layed off on that Everton match as I had a hinch the OVER was finally due! ............reminds me of last year when I used to play Russian Prem. games, that league had plenty of unders w/ inflated lines like -222, I don't know if the fix was in or not, but everytime the the top 4 under teams got together, the game amazingly went Over???? Coincidence? Doubt it, but it's like going to the "well" to many times, your bound to come up empty eventually.Stay profitable

This has been happening in the EPL league for a couple years. I've alluded to it in my past posts about the under/over thing changing.

As far as 2 under teams getting together, oftentimes they are just poor scoring teams but they aren't the best on defense. I stayed away from the under in the Sunderland/Aston Villa match for this reason and they went over.

 

[joeyfitzclick]

Thoughts on the boro match tomorrow ?


I will bet on it because it's on telly but don't really have a strong oinion on the game.

 

[quantumleap]

Thoughts on the boro match tomorrow ?


I will bet on it because it's on telly but don't really have a strong oinion on the game.

I'll take a look at it again joey. Maybe I can find something I overlooked before.

 

[quantumleap]

Thoughts on the boro match tomorrow ?


I will bet on it because it's on telly but don't really have a strong oinion on the game.

Middlesbrough -0.5 -107 over Fulham (PointBet) 1 unit
Fulham/Middlesbrough draw +230 (several books) 0.5 units
I'm hedging this bet with the draw. Fulham has not won on the road and Middlesbrough has won their last 2 matches big. However I feel Fulham may have had a confidence booster with their win against Man City and may get the draw.

 

[quantumleap]

Middlesbrough 3, Fulham 2 net +0.43
Tottenham 1, West Ham 1 +0.66

Net so far: +0.13

1 more match left.

 

[joeyfitzclick]

thnx took boro.


arty:

 

[quantumleap]

thnx took boro.


arty:

Thanks for challenging me. I can't believe I didn't see that earlier and I'm glad it turned out well for us.

arty:

 

[quantumleap]

Last match gets cancelled.

Net for this week: +0.13

YTD series all soccer: 16-3
YTD all soccer: 10.55