West Ham vs Leeds
West Ham ML (0.5Units)
West Ham Over 2.5 Goals (0.5 Units)
*Disclaimer —— Leeds came to St. James over the weekend, lashed at our legs for 90 minutes, and got away with a point, this has angered me.*
Of the many surprising outfits this year in the Premier League, seeing West Ham toil around at the bottom of the table is amongst my personal biggest. From my vantage point, I think David Moyes is a very good manager, and frankly, this team has such a solid backbone in the middle of the pitch that it was hard to imagine them struggling the way they have. But there’s really no two ways about it, 17th in the table is an ugly place to be as January hits, and a rather quick turnaround will be needed if they are to salvage a season that started with such lofty ambitions. Moreover, for the future of the club having a sterling second half may be vital, as Declan Rice is a cornerstone type figure, and losing him in the summer would certainly be tough for the Hammers faithful.
But there is a reason for optimism nonetheless, and a match with a floundering Leeds side might just be the antidote. Because entering today’s match Jesse Marsch’s side is now dead last in the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals allowed at 1.62 per 90 minutes, which is to say, the defense quite poor. Just in the last two matches, they have conceded over six expected goals, and over the span of their last 6, they’ve allowed opponents to create 12 big scoring chances. Tough to see it getting much better as the fixtures begin to pile up for this side, because even though Marsch isn’t Bielsa in terms of chaotic pressing, Leeds is a team who presses the opposition above league average, and unlike their contemporaries in that space, they’ve really not got the depth of talent down the roster to do so when facing 3 games in 10 days.
Moreover, though West Ham’s season has to date been that of struggle, The Hammers are one of, if not the biggest positive regression candidate in the Premier League right now. Moyes’ side currently sits in 17th place with a +1.6 expected goal differential, but a -9 actual goal differential. That isn’t sustainable in the best way possible, and while the attack has been blunt and ineffective so far, goals are going to come flooding at some point if you care at all for the predictive metrics —— they’ve scored 13 goals off 19.6 expected this season, the largest difference to the negative in the table.
So with West Ham losing 5 consecutive games, you might think a man mad for buying now —- but as they say in the finance world, WE BUY THE DIP
Another Winning Wednesday Awaits (Volume 1)
Picks and Analysis for January 4th (NHL/EPL)
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