Hull v Chelsea
Hull are a tough team to beat at home having lost just 20% of their home league games, conceding on average 0.6 goals per game, while Chelsea have won just 40% of their away league games so this match is not as clear cut as one might expect. Chelsea are 1.62 (BetVictor) and this looks too thin to back. Chelsea have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 league matches and Hull will be set up to play very defensively having only had 1 shot on target in their previous game versus Chelsea. Factoring in Mourinho’s tendency to tighten up when taking the lead recently, they should limit Hulls chances who are unlikely to drive forward in numbers until the last 20 minutes if they are within a goal so I recommend Chelsea To Win To Nil – 2.55 (Ladbrokes).
Cardiff v West Ham
Both of these teams are currently in terrible form with West Ham without a win in their last 7 league matches and on the losing side of some heavy defeats however Cardiff have just a single win in their last 10 league matches so luck will play a big part if there is a winner in this match. West Ham have won the last 5 meetings between these teams however they have a lot of injuries coming in to this game and its unlikely they will make it 6 on the bounce. Cardiff won their last match (FA Cup) against Newcastle and coupled with home advantage they are worthy favorites this time around however their price has dropped to odds on now which is not appealing as they are very inconsistent with just 4 wins in 20 league matches. Cardiff can currently be had at 1.5 Draw No bet (Stan James) which should be snapped up especially when you consider West Ham have won just 10% of their away league matches and Kevin Nolan is suspended for this match.
Everton v Norwich
Everton are generally 1.4 to win this match which holds no appeal especially with Lukaku having scored only 1 goal in his last 8 games they do not have the goal supremacy over a tight Norwich team to justify those odds. Norwich have conceded just 1 goal in their last 3 away league matches while Everton have kept just one clean sheet in their last 7 matches in all competitions. The corresponding fixture last season ended 1-1 and it could be the same this time however the bet that stands out is Everton To Score Under 2.5 Goals at 1.5 (Bet365).
Fulham v Sunderland
Fulham have won 30% of their league games this season and host bottom of the table Sunderland who have failed to live up to expectations this season after spending a lot of money on their squad which has failed to settle winning just 15% of their matches however they have shown a better defensive approach recently and Fulham are one of the most inconsistent teams this season so making a prematch prediction for this fixture is like trying to pick a winner in the Grand National. Statistically both teams start slowly and neither are prolific scorers yet their defenses are relatively weak but factoring in their respective home and away styles against similar teams I recommend a bet of exactly 1 goal to be scored in the 1st half at 2.62 (BetVictor).
Southampton v West Brom
A fixture that won’t get the masses excited however Southampton are having an impressive season and their style is no doubt being studied by the Championship teams fighting for promotion. Both teams have a similar total goals per game average with 2.45 and 2.5 and there is a very high likelihood that this game ends with exactly 2 or 3 goals which can be had at 2.0 (Bet365).
Tottenham v Crystal Palace
Tottenham are big favorites at 1.36 having won the reverse fixture 1-0 and being in good form with a change of management and Adebayor and Soldado forming a good partnership and Palace having lost 65% of their league matches however their recent form is much improved and I don’t see Tottenham winning much more than the 74% to justify backing them in the win-draw-win market. The market that stands out to me is Tottenham To Score Exactly 2 or 3 Goals at 2.0 (Ladbrokes).
Man Utd v Swansea
Swansea beat Man Utd on Sunday and the odds have already drifted from 1.3 to 1.5 on a Utd win. United have already dropped more home points this season than they did throughout the entirety of last season, although Swansea are winless in six Premier League games. While Utd will miss Van Persie and Rooney will have to undergo a late fitness test, Swansea have more serious injury concerns with Michu, Dyer and De Guzman all out. Utd could potentially have to play Kagawa and Welbeck up front which takes away any appeal from the 1.5 on them to win and I expect them to be closer to 1.7 on the day for those of you that want to trade your way on the exchanges to a Bonus Bet. Swansea play much more defensively away from home and especially again a Utd team who will be playing an unusual formation and forgoing their usual high possession percentage game, chances could be at a premium in this game however there is a history of high scoring games between these two with the last 3 going over 2.5 goals. The bet with the highest EV is Exactly 2 or 3 Goals To Be Scored In The Match at 2.0 (Bet365).
Newcastle v Man City
The big statistic in this match is that Man City have won the 9 previous meetings and won by 2 or more goals in the last 7 and the 1.7 on offer with Coral on Man City taking the 3 points looks appealing however City have been poor away from home this season winning 40% while Newcastle have lost just 20% of their home matches. Aguero is not expected to be back for this game so Negredo and Toure are the next most dangerous goal stats betting wise and could face a Newcastle side without Tim Krul. While Newcastle have a massive player missing in Cabaye they have Remy and Gouffran up front who are capable of beating City’s defense. Navas is likely to be out for City which will reduce the supply to Negredo. A bet that appeals which has paid out in the last 6 away matches for City against Newcastle is City To Score Exactly 2 or 3 Goals at 2.05 (Ladbrokes).
Stoke v Liverpool
The fact that Liverpools odds are only 1.67 shows that the bookmakers are expecting a lot of money to be wagered on Suarez pulling off the magic yet again but hopefully the punters won’t overlook the fact that Stoke have lost just 10% of their home league games while Liverpool left with 3 points on their travels just 30% of the time this season so even though I will be wearing my Suarez jersey I would rather be a layer than a backer this time. Need more convincing? Liverpool have won just 1 from their last 6 visits to Stoke. I am going to have to go with my head over my heart on this one and will recommend Stoke To Win or Draw at 2.4 (BetVictor).
Aston Villa v Arsenal
Arsenal got bad news during the week with Walcott expected to be out for the season. Villa won the last meeting, granted that involved 2 Benteke penalties however every other stat this season points to an Arsenal win but it is difficult to back Arsenal on a Monday night in Birmingham at odds requiring them to win more than 64% of the time before we get to profit. The goalscoring stats have shown the half time correct score bet to be very profitable and current form supports a bet of Arsenal to be winning 1-0 at half time at odds of 3.6 (Ladbrokes).
Hull are a tough team to beat at home having lost just 20% of their home league games, conceding on average 0.6 goals per game, while Chelsea have won just 40% of their away league games so this match is not as clear cut as one might expect. Chelsea are 1.62 (BetVictor) and this looks too thin to back. Chelsea have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 league matches and Hull will be set up to play very defensively having only had 1 shot on target in their previous game versus Chelsea. Factoring in Mourinho’s tendency to tighten up when taking the lead recently, they should limit Hulls chances who are unlikely to drive forward in numbers until the last 20 minutes if they are within a goal so I recommend Chelsea To Win To Nil – 2.55 (Ladbrokes).
Cardiff v West Ham
Both of these teams are currently in terrible form with West Ham without a win in their last 7 league matches and on the losing side of some heavy defeats however Cardiff have just a single win in their last 10 league matches so luck will play a big part if there is a winner in this match. West Ham have won the last 5 meetings between these teams however they have a lot of injuries coming in to this game and its unlikely they will make it 6 on the bounce. Cardiff won their last match (FA Cup) against Newcastle and coupled with home advantage they are worthy favorites this time around however their price has dropped to odds on now which is not appealing as they are very inconsistent with just 4 wins in 20 league matches. Cardiff can currently be had at 1.5 Draw No bet (Stan James) which should be snapped up especially when you consider West Ham have won just 10% of their away league matches and Kevin Nolan is suspended for this match.
Everton v Norwich
Everton are generally 1.4 to win this match which holds no appeal especially with Lukaku having scored only 1 goal in his last 8 games they do not have the goal supremacy over a tight Norwich team to justify those odds. Norwich have conceded just 1 goal in their last 3 away league matches while Everton have kept just one clean sheet in their last 7 matches in all competitions. The corresponding fixture last season ended 1-1 and it could be the same this time however the bet that stands out is Everton To Score Under 2.5 Goals at 1.5 (Bet365).
Fulham v Sunderland
Fulham have won 30% of their league games this season and host bottom of the table Sunderland who have failed to live up to expectations this season after spending a lot of money on their squad which has failed to settle winning just 15% of their matches however they have shown a better defensive approach recently and Fulham are one of the most inconsistent teams this season so making a prematch prediction for this fixture is like trying to pick a winner in the Grand National. Statistically both teams start slowly and neither are prolific scorers yet their defenses are relatively weak but factoring in their respective home and away styles against similar teams I recommend a bet of exactly 1 goal to be scored in the 1st half at 2.62 (BetVictor).
Southampton v West Brom
A fixture that won’t get the masses excited however Southampton are having an impressive season and their style is no doubt being studied by the Championship teams fighting for promotion. Both teams have a similar total goals per game average with 2.45 and 2.5 and there is a very high likelihood that this game ends with exactly 2 or 3 goals which can be had at 2.0 (Bet365).
Tottenham v Crystal Palace
Tottenham are big favorites at 1.36 having won the reverse fixture 1-0 and being in good form with a change of management and Adebayor and Soldado forming a good partnership and Palace having lost 65% of their league matches however their recent form is much improved and I don’t see Tottenham winning much more than the 74% to justify backing them in the win-draw-win market. The market that stands out to me is Tottenham To Score Exactly 2 or 3 Goals at 2.0 (Ladbrokes).
Man Utd v Swansea
Swansea beat Man Utd on Sunday and the odds have already drifted from 1.3 to 1.5 on a Utd win. United have already dropped more home points this season than they did throughout the entirety of last season, although Swansea are winless in six Premier League games. While Utd will miss Van Persie and Rooney will have to undergo a late fitness test, Swansea have more serious injury concerns with Michu, Dyer and De Guzman all out. Utd could potentially have to play Kagawa and Welbeck up front which takes away any appeal from the 1.5 on them to win and I expect them to be closer to 1.7 on the day for those of you that want to trade your way on the exchanges to a Bonus Bet. Swansea play much more defensively away from home and especially again a Utd team who will be playing an unusual formation and forgoing their usual high possession percentage game, chances could be at a premium in this game however there is a history of high scoring games between these two with the last 3 going over 2.5 goals. The bet with the highest EV is Exactly 2 or 3 Goals To Be Scored In The Match at 2.0 (Bet365).
Newcastle v Man City
The big statistic in this match is that Man City have won the 9 previous meetings and won by 2 or more goals in the last 7 and the 1.7 on offer with Coral on Man City taking the 3 points looks appealing however City have been poor away from home this season winning 40% while Newcastle have lost just 20% of their home matches. Aguero is not expected to be back for this game so Negredo and Toure are the next most dangerous goal stats betting wise and could face a Newcastle side without Tim Krul. While Newcastle have a massive player missing in Cabaye they have Remy and Gouffran up front who are capable of beating City’s defense. Navas is likely to be out for City which will reduce the supply to Negredo. A bet that appeals which has paid out in the last 6 away matches for City against Newcastle is City To Score Exactly 2 or 3 Goals at 2.05 (Ladbrokes).
Stoke v Liverpool
The fact that Liverpools odds are only 1.67 shows that the bookmakers are expecting a lot of money to be wagered on Suarez pulling off the magic yet again but hopefully the punters won’t overlook the fact that Stoke have lost just 10% of their home league games while Liverpool left with 3 points on their travels just 30% of the time this season so even though I will be wearing my Suarez jersey I would rather be a layer than a backer this time. Need more convincing? Liverpool have won just 1 from their last 6 visits to Stoke. I am going to have to go with my head over my heart on this one and will recommend Stoke To Win or Draw at 2.4 (BetVictor).
Aston Villa v Arsenal
Arsenal got bad news during the week with Walcott expected to be out for the season. Villa won the last meeting, granted that involved 2 Benteke penalties however every other stat this season points to an Arsenal win but it is difficult to back Arsenal on a Monday night in Birmingham at odds requiring them to win more than 64% of the time before we get to profit. The goalscoring stats have shown the half time correct score bet to be very profitable and current form supports a bet of Arsenal to be winning 1-0 at half time at odds of 3.6 (Ladbrokes).
