Gents -
I know little about science, but I like predictive analytics using available data. Here is what I have for this weeks soccer matches. If it is in green, the numbers indicate value making it worth a deeper look, and potentially a wager.
I know little about science, but I like predictive analytics using available data. Here is what I have for this weeks soccer matches. If it is in green, the numbers indicate value making it worth a deeper look, and potentially a wager.
| ITALY SERIE A | STATS | ODDS & VALUE | |||||||||||||||||
| Expected Goals per Game | Exp G/A % vs League AVG | Projected Goals Neutral | Projected Goals Home Field | 1 | X | 2 | H +0.5 | A +0.5 | H +1.5 | A +1.5 | H -1.5 | A -1.5 | o2.5 | u2.5 | o3.5 | u3.5 | |||
| Home | Genoa | 1.19 | 99.72% | 1.19 | 1.40 | My Odds | 2.24 | 3.73 | 3.49 | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.12 | 1.27 | 4.69 | 9.16 | 2.24 | 1.81 | 4.27 | 1.31 |
| Away | Sampdoria | 1.30 | 100.07% | 1.29 | 1.06 | Bookie | 2.63 | 3.34 | 2.91 | 1.47 | 1.54 | 1.98 | 1.89 | 3.45 | 1.36 | ||||
| Adj Kelly | 1.06 | -0.45 | -0.87 | 1.03 | -2.70 | -1.18 | 0.49 | -0.78 | 1.09 | ||||||||||
| Home | Udinese | 1.17 | 99.96% | 1.17 | 1.38 | My Odds | 3.31 | 4.30 | 2.15 | 1.87 | 1.43 | 1.33 | 1.15 | 7.48 | 3.99 | 1.65 | 2.54 | 2.61 | 1.62 |
| Away | Roma | 2.14 | 100.11% | 2.14 | 1.76 | Bookie | 4.45 | 3.77 | 1.86 | 2.05 | 1.24 | 1.78 | 2.13 | 2.86 | 1.44 | ||||
| Adj Kelly | 1.00 | -0.45 | -1.54 | 0.91 | -5.60 | 1.04 | -1.44 | 0.52 | -2.51 | ||||||||||
| Home | Juventus | 2.11 | 100.38% | 2.11 | 2.48 | My Odds | 1.42 | 5.95 | 7.80 | 1.15 | 3.37 | 1.04 | 1.94 | 2.07 | 23.73 | 1.49 | 3.04 | 2.20 | 1.83 |
| Away | SPAL 2013 | 1.18 | 99.97% | 1.18 | 0.97 | Bookie | 1.16 | 8.11 | 23.24 | 5.84 | 1.56 | 2.65 | 2.43 | 1.63 | |||||
| Adj Kelly | -12.09 | 0.51 | 0.89 | 1.51 | 0.81 | -0.78 | 0.73 | -1.76 | |||||||||||
| Home | Inter | 1.53 | 100.26% | 1.53 | 1.79 | My Odds | 1.54 | 4.52 | 7.83 | 1.15 | 2.87 | 1.03 | 1.63 | 2.60 | 31.11 | 2.27 | 1.79 | 4.36 | 1.30 |
| Away | Frosinone | 0.78 | 99.70% | 0.78 | 0.64 | Bookie | 1.24 | 6.44 | 14.10 | 4.44 | 2.25 | 1.71 | 1.56 | 2.63 | 2.47 | 1.62 | |||
| Adj Kelly | -8.15 | 0.78 | 0.61 | 1.60 | 3.08 | -4.77 | -5.56 | 2.90 | -2.95 | 3.99 | |||||||||
| Home | Parma Calcio 1913 | 0.82 | 99.78% | 0.82 | 0.97 | My Odds | 3.47 | 3.48 | 2.35 | 1.74 | 1.40 | 1.23 | 1.12 | 9.65 | 5.30 | 2.64 | 1.61 | 5.50 | 1.22 |
| Away | Sassuolo | 1.51 | 99.99% | 1.51 | 1.24 | Bookie | 3.05 | 3.38 | 2.50 | 1.43 | 1.93 | 1.94 | 3.31 | 1.37 | |||||
| Adj Kelly | -0.60 | -0.12 | 0.42 | 0.38 | -2.92 | 2.16 | -1.72 | 3.25 | |||||||||||
| Home | Bologna | 0.77 | 99.85% | 0.77 | 0.91 | My Odds | 3.83 | 3.53 | 2.19 | 1.84 | 1.35 | 1.27 | 1.10 | 11.21 | 4.75 | 2.63 | 1.61 | 5.48 | 1.22 |
| Away | Fiorentina | 1.58 | 100.15% | 1.58 | 1.30 | Bookie | 3.93 | 3.35 | 2.12 | 1.81 | 1.29 | 2.17 | 1.76 | ||||||
| Adj Kelly | 0.09 | -0.22 | -0.30 | -0.17 | -1.51 | -1.50 | 1.19 | ||||||||||||
| Home | Empoli | 1.19 | 99.93% | 1.19 | 1.40 | My Odds | 2.69 | 3.96 | 2.66 | 1.60 | 1.59 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 5.81 | 5.73 | 1.88 | 2.14 | 3.22 | 1.45 |
| Away | Atalanta | 1.71 | 100.16% | 1.71 | 1.41 | Bookie | 4.99 | 3.92 | 1.75 | 2.21 | 1.40 | 3.08 | 1.69 | 2.30 | 2.71 | 1.50 | |||
| Adj Kelly | 2.15 | -0.04 | -4.62 | 3.14 | 3.93 | -2.22 | -1.44 | 0.57 | -0.93 | 0.67 | |||||||||
| Home | Napoli | 1.79 | 100.16% | 1.78 | 2.10 | My Odds | 1.40 | 5.38 | 9.82 | 1.11 | 3.48 | 1.03 | 1.86 | 2.16 | 39.70 | 1.94 | 2.07 | 3.39 | 1.42 |
| Away | Chievo | 0.78 | 99.64% | 0.78 | 0.64 | Bookie | 1.13 | 9.42 | 24.83 | 1.41 | 3.04 | 1.99 | 1.88 | ||||||
| Adj Kelly | -15.17 | 0.89 | 0.64 | -6.62 | 2.30 | -4.17 | 3.68 | ||||||||||||
| Home | Lazio | 1.36 | 100.05% | 1.36 | 1.60 | My Odds | 2.55 | 4.23 | 2.69 | 1.59 | 1.64 | 1.22 | 1.24 | 5.12 | 5.53 | 1.64 | 2.56 | 2.59 | 1.63 |
| Away | AC Milan | 1.88 | 100.06% | 1.89 | 1.55 | Bookie | 1.85 | 3.77 | 4.54 | 1.25 | 2.08 | 1.81 | 2.09 | 2.94 | 1.43 | ||||
| Adj Kelly | -3.26 | -0.39 | 1.94 | -8.83 | 2.45 | 1.25 | -1.69 | 0.70 | -2.92 |
