Predicting Every Game Of The World Cup All The Way To Final

[HacheMan]

Predicting the entire 2022 World Cup, from Qatar vs. Ecuador to the final​

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When I first did this, seven months ago, I wrote the following: "Players can get injured, players can play poorly, players can appear out of nowhere, managers can quit their jobs -- the list of complicating factors is endless." And yet, I still went ahead and made a prediction for all 64 of the matches scheduled to be played in Qatar.

Since then, the final two slots in the tournament were confirmed. (Sorry, Peru!) And so have the 26-man rosters for all 32 teams. (Sorry, Paul Pogba, N'Golo Kante, Diogo Jota, Reece James, and on and on.) We now know who's playing, both at a micro and macro level, in a way I did not, back in April. Players have been injured, players have played poorly, players have appeared out of nowhere, and managers have left their jobs.

So, with this added information, we're running it back and predicting all the matches from Nov. 21 through Dec. 18 -- again. Some of the predictions and analysis from the first time around will not change, while other parts will read very differently. Like last time, all of the stats mentioned in the piece come from Stats Perform, but unlike last time, we are only looking at data from competitive matches played since August 1, 2021..

And also like last time, I've employed the help of the consultancy Twenty First Group, which has built a model that combines individual player ratings and team performance to create a rating for every international team. With international soccer, there aren't enough games to truly judge a team based on its recent results, and the rosters are always changing, so this player-based method attempts to address those problems. I'll reference their ratings throughout this journey; it's just another tool to help guide us from start to finish.

All right, let's get to it -- again!

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The group stage​

Nov. 20​

Qatar vs. Ecuador (Group A): One big thing that's changed since the first go-round? The date of and participants in the opening game! Senegal-Netherlands was supposed to be the opener, but tournament organizers have since bumped up this match a day to ensure the host nation gets Game 1. Does the fact that no one had thought about this until a couple of months ago bode well for the general logistical success of a massive global event taking place in a tiny desert nation? It does not, but we've already lost the thread here. Back to the games ...

There's no other way to say it, really: Qatar are the worst host nation team in the history of the World Cup, and the Qataris are only in the tournament because of the incredibly dubious process that led to their country being awarded the tournament.

- Is Qatar's World Cup an attempt at sportswashing, or something more?

They're 50th in the FIFA rankings, and Twenty First Group's model rates them as the worst defensive team in the tournament by a good margin. Per the ratings, the gap between them and the 31st-ranked defensive team (Costa Rica) is bigger than the gap between Costa Rica and No. 17 Senegal. Qatar can play some nice possession soccer at times (see: their match against the United States at the 2021 Gold Cup) -- but it's hard to see them not getting overpowered by bigger and stronger teams.

Despite some fun talent, Ecuador don't seem all that good -- they barely eked out a positive goal differential in qualifying -- but they should cruise in this one.

Result: Qatar 0-2 Ecuador

Nov. 21​

England vs. Iran (Group B): England have been awful ever since I wrote those first predictions. They were relegated from the first tier of the Nations League and haven't won any of their past six games. Since 1998, teams that made the semifinals of the World Cup have, on average, won better than 60% of their final five games before the tournament. Gareth Southgate's team, of course, have won 0%.

After Spain, England are the slowest team in the tournament, moving the ball upfield at a crawl's pace of 0.96 meters per second. And while Iran can't score, they've always been tough to score against. This one, especially the first half, could be a slog for the Three Lions.

Result: England 2-0 Iran

Senegal vs. Netherlands (Group A): OK, now that we've reached what should be the first competitive game of the tournament, it's time for some ground rules, base rates, what have you. Over the past two World Cups, 80% of the matches were won by one team or another, with the remaining 20% ending in draws. And there have been an average of 2.6 goals scored per game.

When a team wins, they score 2.3 goals and concede 0.6. When it's a draw, the scores, very nicely, add up to 1.0 goals for and 1.0 goals against. So roughly, the average win at the World Cup is a 2-1 margin, and the average draw is 1-1.

Among teams that have appeared in the past two tournaments, France have averaged both the most goals scored (2.0) and conceded the fewest (0.8). At the other end of the spectrum, among teams with appearances in both events, Iran have scored the fewest goals (0.5 per game), while Australia have allowed the most (2.3). If we limit it to teams who have made at least one appearance, then Panama have allowed the most goals (3.7), while Cameroon and Honduras (0.3) have scored the fewest.

While they missed out on Russia 2018, Netherlands have scored the most goals (2.1) and conceded the second fewest (0.6, behind Denmark's 0.5) among teams to appear in at least one of the previous two tournaments. Their manager in 2014? Louis van Gaal. Their manager in 2018? One Louis van Gaal.

Befitting what is widely considered the worst group in the tournament, Netherlands are the eighth-best team, according to the Twenty First Group model, while Senegal rank 18th. One stylistic indicator to keep an eye on: Senegal have moved the ball upfield faster (1.73 meters per second) than any team in the tournament other than Morocco. In contrast, LVG's teams have a history of slow-moving, sideways possession. Should be a fun one, and it's a nice matchup for Sadio Mane & Co. The winner of this likely wins the group.

Result: Senegal 1-1 Netherlands

United States vs. Wales (Group B): The U.S. had a really hard time with teams that could effectively sit back and counter during qualifying; and with a supposedly fit and healthy Gareth Bale leading the way, the Welsh have been one of the most effective sit-back-and-counter teams in international soccer over the past decade. Of course, we have seen Bale sprint approximately one time since April, and that was after he scored the tying goal in the dying minutes of the MLS Cup for Los Angeles FC against the Philadelphia Union. He sure can dunk; can he still run?

The U.S. truly do have more talent than Wales, but their Day 1 opponents will present a tactical puzzle that Gregg Berhalter's team haven't yet solved.

Result: U.S. 1-1 Wales

Nov. 22​

Argentina vs. Saudi Arabia (Group C): The vibes around Argentina are as good as they've ever been right now, and the Saudis just match up terribly with them -- and frankly, with most teams in the tournament. They like to possess the ball, so there should be plenty of space for Argentina's dynamic attackers to run into as Lionel Messi continues to drop deeper and deeper as he gets older, pinging pinpoint passes up and across the field. Their 35-game unbeaten streak continues apace.

Result: Argentina 3-0 Saudi Arabia

Denmark vs. Tunisia (Group D): In international soccer, everyone knows you've got the Big Nine. (Actually, don't use this term; I just made it up, and people will look at you funny if you try to drop it in conversation.) There's Brazil and Argentina from South America, along with the European septet of France, Spain, England, Germany, Portugal, Belgium and the Netherlands. But after that group, Denmark have the shortest odds to win the whole thing. They made the semis of the Euros, and it wasn't a fluke.


The level of coaching at this tournament and at international soccer in general will vary widely, but Kasper Hjulmand showed an ability to build a really fun, interesting and flexible side last summer. The Danes are still lacking a truly standout goal scorer, but they're one of the more cohesive and well-thought-out teams in the event. They'll smash the set-piece button, too.

Result: Denmark 2-0 Tunisia

Mexico vs. Poland (Group C): Yes, Poland do have Robert Lewandowski, the red-hot best striker in the world. But also: Poland have had Robert Lewandowski for over a decade at this point and never really accomplished anything of note at the international level. I don't see much of a difference in these two teams overall.

Result: Mexico 1-1 Poland

France vs. Australia (Group D): Sure, France lost the entire midfield that made this team go, but there's still no need to overcomplicate this. Despite attempting to qualify out of a comparatively easy region, Australia produced an expected-goal differential of plus-0.22 per 90 minutes in their competitive matches since last August. Only Uruguay, Costa Rica and Ghana were worse -- with the latter two somehow making it into the tournament despite consistently getting buried under great chances by their opponents.

France will probably play this more conservatively than they should, but hey, it worked last time, didn't it?

Result: France 1-0 Australia

 

[HacheMan]

Nov. 23​

Morocco vs. Croatia (Group F): These are two teams that illustrate the dual beauty and curse of international soccer: some global superstars playing with some guys from the Croatian and Moroccan first divisions. In April, I wrote, "It would be a massive boost for Morocco if Chelsea's Hakim Ziyech decides to unretire before the World Cup, but we're counting him out for now." Guess what? Ziyech is back, baby! Croatia, meanwhile, are essentially just a worse, older version of the unlikely team that made the World Cup final last time around.

Among tournament sides, Croatia rank 10th according to Twenty First Group, while the Moroccans sit 17th. INCREDIBLY MINOR UPSET ALERT.

Result: Morocco 2-1 Croatia

Germany vs. Japan (Group E): Don't sleep on this game -- metaphorically, that is. For some of you, this game will be played while you literally are sleeping, but DVR it if you have to because it could be a lot of fun.

In the sample of games mentioned in the intro, Germany had the best expected-goal differential per game, while Japan were sixth. By hiring former Bayern manager Hansi Flick, the Germans have basically doubled down on the push-everyone-forward high-wire act that saw them get dumped out in the group stages in 2018; all of their matches are a must-watch.

Result: Germany 3-2 Japan

Spain vs. Costa Rica (Group E): Time for some introspection. I stand by the phrase, uttered in April, "Spain have the best coach in the tournament." But Luis Enrique is really testing my resolve here and making me wonder what "coaching" even means. He left the likes of Liverpool's Thiago and PSG's Sergio Ramos off his roster, and he recently admitted that he thought practicing set pieces was a waste of time. Despite, you know, some people (me) writing whole chapters of whole books about how set-piece practice is the most cost- and time-effective way to score goals.

That being said, Spain mopped the floor with Italy in the semifinals of the Euros only to lose in a shootout, and the team is built around a core of young, dynamic, flexible winger/attacker/midfielder/whatever types that have produced some really intricate and club-team-like possession play.

Costa Rica, meanwhile, might be the oldest team at the tournament. I'm not buying their late surge in CONCACAF or their win over New Zealand, either.

Result: Spain 2-0 Costa Rica

Belgium vs. Canada (Group F): This is just an awful matchup for Belgium. They're weak at the back and can't really defend in space, but Roberto Martinez has the team playing in a way that requires his aging slew of center backs to sometimes still do that. Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David are both one-man counterattacks ... and they play on the same team.

The Belgians might overwhelm Canada with possession, but it's really hard to imagine any pattern to this game that doesn't involve David and Davies streaking up the field into wide-open space at least a couple of times.

Result: Belgium 1-2 Canada

Nov. 24​

Switzerland vs. Cameroon (Group G): Will Xherdan Shaqiri finally take off all of his clothes during a World Cup match? Tune in on Thanksgiving morning as we begin our collective journey.

Result: Switzerland 1-0 Cameroon

Uruguay vs. South Korea (Group H): I must repent.

April me: "Sorry, but I just can't get excited about a team that (A) is managed by a coach who was fired by the worst club in MLS, (B) conceded as many goals as it scored in qualifying and (C) still relies on a pair of 35-year-old strikers. This will be South Korea's last World Cup with Son Heung-Min somewhere near his peak. I like that a little better."

- World Cup vignettes: People in Qatar talk about what it means to them

November me: Darwin Nunez is the most exciting player in world soccer. He's averaging more than a goal or an assist per 90 minutes. He frequently looks like he doesn't know how to tie his shoes, let alone walk and chew gum at the same time, let alone play professional soccer for one of the best teams in the world. He will, on a single play, dribble the ball 60 yards, beat three defenders, and then somehow shoot the ball ... backward. He's complete chaos -- and he's likely going to be paired with a mild-mannered veteran named ... LUIS SUAREZ. Throw in midfielders Federico Valverde and Rodrigo Bentancur, neither of whom can stop scoring, then add in a recent injury to Son Heung-Min, and we're taking Uruguay this time.

Result: Uruguay 1-0 South Korea

Portugal vs. Ghana (Group H): Remember all those Ghana teams the U.S. had trouble with? Good, now wipe that from your memory. Although they've added some new, nationalized talent like Inaki Williams and Tariq Lamptey, the Black Stars limped into the tournament off a lucky Thomas Partey goal in a match that Nigeria dominated. This team didn't get out of its group at the Africa Cup of Nations.

Result: Portugal 2-0 Ghana

Brazil vs. Serbia (Group G): When they played four years ago, the match ended 2-0. When they play while you're falling asleep on your couch from too much turkey ...

Result: Brazil 2-0 Serbia

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[HacheMan]

Nov. 25​

Wales vs. Iran (Group B): It probably won't happen, but this match could consist of 90 minutes of both teams staring at the ball while it sits in the middle of the center circle, daring the other side to take the initiative. With both sides at their best without the ball, this feels like a terrible matchup for everyone, especially those who decide to wake up early to watch it.

Result: Wales 0-0 Iran

Qatar vs. Senegal (Group A): Senegal soaks up possession from Qatar, the hosts can't break down the likes of Everton's Idrissa Gueye and Chelsea's Kalidou Koulibaly, the ball turns over and all of a sudden, it's Sadio Mane breaking into the penalty area -- over and over and over again.

Result: Qatar 0-2 Senegal

Netherlands vs. Ecuador (Group A): The Netherlands have been on fire over the past few months. The Elo ratings get updated each time a team plays a game based on the result and the competitiveness of the match, and only Brazil, Argentina and Spain are currently ahead of the Dutch. But this roster ... just doesn't make much sense. They have a bunch of good center backs who can't all play together and a bunch of gigantic strikers who can't all play together. Beyond that, the midfield feels very light, and then it's a bunch of wide attackers who all like to occupy the same spaces and not many guys who can stretch a defense.

It can work when all the players are world class -- elite players can figure out the fit on the fly -- but the standard of the Dutch attackers this cycle is a couple of ticks below the Robin Van Persie and Arjen Robben generation. The lack of talent is why the Twenty First Group model isn't so high on them, either.

This could be a tricky match for LVG's side.

Result: Netherlands 2-1 Ecuador

England vs. United States (Group B): The "It's Called Soccer, Lads" derby!

Despite all of the exciting attacking talent on both sides, both teams are much better defensively than they are going forward. It's a weird matchup, and that's going beyond the anxieties and emotional complexes both nations have developed against, and in concert with, each other over the past 300 years. England should be able to dominate with the ball more than they typically do, while the USMNT have typically fared better without the ball despite wanting the ball more often. Am I talking myself into both teams swapping managers before the tournament starts? I asked this question in April, and I'm still asking it today.

- Borden: Introducing the USMNT's "Class of 2022" for the World Cup

This is also a matchup between perhaps the two most out-of-form teams in the tournament; England have dropped eight spots in the Elo ratings over the past year, while the U.S. tumbled nine places. There are still all kinds of ways to overthink this one, but despite a pretty volatile seven months for both sides, I'm sticking with the reasoning I went with back in April: "The more talented team wins."

Result: England 2-1 U.S.

Nov. 26​

Tunisia vs. Australia (Group D): Based on the Twenty First Group ratings, this would be the worst game of the tournament: No. 25 vs. No. 29.

Result: Tunisia 1-1 Australia

Poland vs. Saudi Arabia (Group C): This feels like one of those "guy wins the Golden Boot in one game" type matches, doesn't it? Would the over/under on Lewandowski goals be 1.5? Maybe even 2?

Result: Poland 4-1 Saudi Arabia

Argentina vs. Mexico (Group C): The last time Tata Martino coached an international match involving the greatest soccer player of all time, Lionel Messi immediately retired after the game. Let's all hope that's not the case this time around! I'm skeptical that Martino's familiarity with the Argentina setup will provide too much of an edge, but it certainly can't hurt.

Result: Argentina 2-1 Mexico

France vs. Denmark (Group D): The holders against the Euro semifinalists makes for a fun group stage rematch. They drew 0-0 when they played in the group stages in 2018. Denmark have definitely improved since then, and although Pogba and Kante are gone, Karim Benzema is back.

Result: France 1-1 Denmark

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[HacheMan]

Nov. 27​

Japan vs. Costa Rica (Group E): It's time for the transitive property of analysis. Japan pummeled the USMNT in their tuneup friendly a couple of months ago. Despite the score lines over their matches, the U.S. were clearly a better team than Costa Rica over the course of qualifying. Therefore ...

Result: Japan 1-0 Costa Rica

Belgium vs. Morocco (Group F): In April, I said, "This is a much better matchup for Belgium than Canada, I think." I'm proud of myself for absentmindedly inserting "I think" there because it suggested some trepidation. And while I do think Morocco are a slightly better matchup, I no longer think they're a much better matchup. After all, as mentioned earlier, the Moroccans are the fastest team in the tournament. This is a less talented, and much older, Belgium team than the one we saw at the last World Cup, and the situation hasn't improved much since April. Eden Hazard has essentially fallen off the face of the earth but is expected to play a prominent role, while Romelu Lukaku has scored a whopping one goal in Serie A this season. He's on pace to score fewer goals for Inter than he did during last season's disastrous stint at Chelsea.


Remember: A favorite goes out early in every tournament ...

Result: Belgium 1-1 Morocco

Croatia vs. Canada (Group F): Against Canada in Canada, the U.S. dominated possession, pressed well and put together some really nice combinations, but it rarely ever led to a quality shot on goal. Croatia should be able to control this game in the same way, and with more midfield talent than the Americans can offer, they also should be able to turn that possession into some more dangerous chances.

If they can't, they'll just bop crosses into the box and shoot from range -- two specialties of Ivan Perisic -- opting for a more industrial Plan B the U.S. never resorted to.

Result: Croatia 2-1 Canada

Spain vs. Germany (Group E): With Nos. 2 and 7 in the Twenty First Group ratings, this is, theoretically, the Game of the Group Stages. But more often than not, the Game of the Group Stages ends in disappointment because both sides have more to lose than to gain by going all-out for the win. Hell, and even when they do, like with Spain and Portugal in 2018, the match can still end even.

Result: Spain 1-1 Germany

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Nov. 28​

Cameroon vs. Serbia (Group G): This just isn't a good group for Cameroon. Brazil might be the best team in the tournament, while Serbia and Switzerland both rank within the top 15 of the Twenty First Group rankings. As such, TFG gives the Indomitable Lions just an 11% chance of reaching the knockout rounds. Only Qatar (9%) and Costa Rica (8%) have a smaller chance of advancing.

Result: Cameroon 1-2 Serbia

South Korea vs. Ghana (Group H): Among all the teams in the tournament, Ghana are the only ones who were outscored in all of their competitive matches since last August. This isn't a vintage South Korea side by any means, but they should be alive come the final Matchday.

Result: South Korea 1-0 Ghana

Brazil vs. Switzerland (Group G): They tied 1-1 in the group stages last time around, but Brazil totally dominated the shot count 21-6. There's no good reason to suggest any different this time around, and there's no good reason to expect the bounces to fall Switzerland's way a second time.

Result: Brazil 2-1 Switzerland

Portugal vs. Uruguay (Group H): Funnily enough, the Twenty First Group model rates Uruguay as exactly the same as Serbia. And that Serbian team beat and drew Portugal en route to winning the World Cup qualifying group and forcing Fernando Santos' team into a playoff. Portugal lost Diogo Jota since I first wrote this thing, and Cristiano Ronaldo seems to be rapidly declining and killing the vibes at every possible opportunity, while Uruguay have a bunch of ascending soon-to-be-if-they're-not-already superstars. But even without Jota and with a big question mark over Ronaldo's performance up top, Portugal still have way more talent up and down the roster.

Uruguay knocked Portugal out in the round of 16, but these two teams are in very different places four years later -- even if the headline names remain the same.

Result: Portugal 2-1 Uruguay

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[HacheMan]

Nov. 29​

Netherlands vs. Qatar (Group A): One of those classic World Cup matchups between one team that's already eliminated and another team that's trying to score as many goals as possible in order to win the potential goal-differential tiebreaker atop the group.

Result: Netherlands 4-1 Qatar

Ecuador vs. Senegal (Group A): While the incentives tend to be uniform over the first two matches of the group stages -- win as many points as you can -- by the third game, you're just trying to do whatever you think maximizes your chances of qualifying. While a win would put Ecuador through, a draw or a win would be good enough for Senegal.

It was the same exact situation when Senegal played Colombia in the final group stage game in 2018 -- and lost. Four years later, they've learned their lesson.

Result: Ecuador 1-1 Senegal

Wales vs. England (Group B): Based on the prior outcomes, England will have already clinched first place in the group through the first two matches. That, theoretically, bodes incredibly well for Wales ... until you remember that England's second-choice team is likely to be nearly as good as its first. Southgate rotated his squad during the group stages of the Euros without much issue, and the same should be true this time around.

Result: Wales 1-1 England

Iran vs. United States (Group B): Another team that doesn't want the ball.

In April, I wrote: "Hopefully you're sensing a theme here ... and hopefully Gregg Berhalter is too. While, paradoxically, it seemed like the U.S. might match up better against better competition come the World Cup -- less of the ball, but more transition opportunities, and more space in the attacking third -- they've drawn a collection of teams who also function better without it. Figuring out how to break these teams down -- hint, hint, set pieces! -- should be the goal of the next seven months."

Spoiler: They did not figure it out over the next seven months. However, I am now dangerously close to proclaiming, "The USMNT is better against good teams than bad teams," and that's step too cute, even for me. This seems likely to be a very frustrating three-match slate for American fans, but after a tense first half, the U.S. breaks through -- and then breaks through again as Iran now have to push forward to stay alive.

Result: Iran 0-2 U.S.

 

[HacheMan]

Nov. 30​

Tunisia vs. France (Group D): Finally, a decisive win for the defending champs.

Result: Tunisia 0-3 France

Australia vs. Denmark (Group D): Australia would have to win this by a large margin in order to advance and so we'll say that they get a goal, but then leave themselves open at the back over the full 90 minutes. Denmark and France both finish the group with seven points and the same goal differential, but the Danes top the standings thanks to the goals-scored tiebreaker.

Result: Australia 1-3 Denmark

Poland vs. Argentina (Group C): A chance for Lewandowski to avenge Messi for stealing his Ballon d'Or? Or not. When both teams benefit from a draw, I expect both teams to -- ultimately -- benefit from a draw.

Result: Poland 1-1 Argentina

Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico (Group C): Feels like the right way for Tata Martino's reign as Mexico manager to come to an end, right? A decisive win gets them to four points, but thanks to a schedule quirk, Argentina doesn't have as much to play for against Poland, so Poland gets an extra point from the final match to send El Tri packing.

Result: Saudi Arabia 1-3 Mexico

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Dec. 1​

Croatia vs. Belgium (Group F): The Belgium attackers finally click, as Croatia controls possession but leave the Red Devils too much space to play into on the counter. Will it be enough?

Result: Croatia 1-2 Belgium

Canada vs. Morocco (Group F): What did I say earlier? When a draw suits both parties, don't be surprised when both parties end in a draw. Morocco tops the group, and Canada and Belgium finish tied on points, on goal differential, and on goals scored. The next tiebreaker? Head-to-head, and so the second- and third-place finishers from 2018 both get dumped out before the round of 16.

Result: Canada 1-1 Morocco

Japan vs. Spain (Group E): The way to frustrate Spain is to limit space in your defensive third and force them to circulate the ball from side to side. The issue with that in this particular situation? Japan need to win, not just grind out a draw. The incentives are against them in this one.

Result: Japan 0-2 Spain

Costa Rica vs. Germany (Group E): The Costa Rica of two World Cups ago would have given Germany some problems. The problem with this year's Costa Rica is that they have many of the same players as the Costa Rica of two World Cups ago. Four players on the roster have 100-plus caps; that's not a good thing.

Result: Costa Rica 1-3 Germany

 

[HacheMan]

Dec. 2​

South Korea vs. Portugal (Group H): I fear that the scheduling really works against the Koreans here. Playing the most important group match -- against Uruguay -- first isn't ideal with Son only just coming back from injury in time to kick things off. We don't know how effective he'll be in his first game back. And then, to wrap, they get to play a frustratingly conservative Portugal team who are incentivized to be conservative in this one, as they only need a draw to top the group.

Result: South Korea 1-1 Portugal

Ghana vs. Uruguay (Group H): Originally, I projected this to be the only meaningless game of the group stages, based on how everything shook out. Instead, we get a rematch of the time Luis Suarez punched a ball off the goal line in extra time of a World Cup quarter final -- and it worked. Suarez was sent off, Asamoah Gyan missed the ensuing penalty and Uruguay won in a shootout.

- World Cup kit rankings: Every nation ranked from 32 to 1

While typically Uruguay would benefit from playing an already-eliminated team, Ghana should be up for this one with the opportunity to eliminate the team that eliminated them, tragically, 12 years ago. I see this one getting really weird and emotional. It ends with lots of goals -- just enough for Uruguay to sneak past South Korea via tiebreaker.

Result: Ghana 2-2 Uruguay

Cameroon vs. Brazil (Group G): Just a brutal draw for Cameroon. They were also in Brazil's group -- in Brazil -- in 2014. Sorry, guys!

Result: Cameroon 1-2 Brazil

Serbia vs. Switzerland (Group G): Serbia vs. Switzerland was the best game of the group stages in 2018, and it's setting up for that to be the case again in 2022. Switzerland would just need a draw, Serbia would need a win. Last time, Shaqiri got naked from the waist up after his 90th-minute winner and he and Granit Xhaka were charged by FIFA for politically charged celebrations.

Switzerland has the slightly better -- and more balanced -- team, but this would be an electric match.

Result: Serbia 1-1 Switzerland

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OK, here we go: the round of 16​

Dec. 3​

Netherlands vs. United States: Ah, yes, finally a matchup that might suit the USMNT's strength. As we already went over, the Dutch might be the worst best team from the group stages, so this part of the draw worked out well for Berhalter's team. Only Germany and Spain had a higher percentage of the final-third possession in their matches than the Dutch did, and they'll likely look to do the same against the Americans. However, they also don't have the devastating attacking talent of other top teams to turn that possession into goals. Tim Ream and Walker Zimmerman should be able to hang with the likes of Wout Weghorst and Luuk De Jong.

Of course, on the other end, is it hard to imagine a team without a true striker scoring against a team with Virgil van Dijk? Sure, but hey, Christian Pulisic always plays well against Liverpool, doesn't he?

Result: Netherlands 1-2 U.S.

Argentina vs. France: Argentina's reward for winning their group? A game against France, who, in 2018, were rewarded for winning their group with a game against Argentina. The Albiceleste are way better equipped to handle France this time around, but it's just a brutal draw for them.

So much of winning the World Cup comes down to good fortune, and unfortunately, Lionel Messi knows that as well as anyone. I have this sneaking suspicion that one of Argentina's talented but volatile center backs -- Nicolas Otamendi, Cristian Romero or Lisandro Martinez -- is going to do something silly at the wrong moment, and it's going to cost them the tournament.

Result: Argentina 1-2 France (after extra time)

 

[HacheMan]

Dec. 4​

Denmark vs. Poland: Poland have the best player; Denmark have the better team. It might seem like an unlikely outcome for either side to reach the quarterfinals, but based on Twenty First Group's projections, there's about a 5042% chance that at least one of them does.

Result: Denmark 1-0 Poland

England vs. Senegal: This would be a fun one, huh? A colossal battle between Sadio Mane and The Narrative That Trent Alexander-Arnold Can't Defend. Just kidding; I doubt TAA will be out there, unless multiple other players get hurt. This could be a difficult one for England, but I just don't think they'll concede the same kind of space Senegal are likely to see during the group stages.

Result: England 2-0 Senegal

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Dec. 5​

Spain vs. Canada: Now this could be a really tricky matchup for Luis Enrique's team. Canada are the exact kind of team that has historically given Spain trouble, and there's just no one in their squad who can handle Alphonso Davies. But Spain are just going to have so much of the ball in this one, and they're better equipped than just about anyone else in the tournament to convert all that ball control into high-quality chances.

Result: Spain 1-0 Canada

Brazil vs. Uruguay: Brazil outscored Uruguay 6-1 in their two qualifying matches and outshot them 22-10. While Uruguay do have Darwin, Suarez, Bentancur and Valverde, Brazil have Neymar, Thiago Silva, Alisson, Casemiro, Ederson, Marquinhos, Vinicius Junior, Fabinho, Bruno Guimaraes, Gabriel Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus, Raphinha, Rodrygo, Richarlison ...

Result: Brazil 2-0 Uruguay

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Dec. 6​

Morocco vs. Germany: While Argentina finish first in their group and land France, Germany finish second in theirs and luck out with a matchup against Morocco. Germany's big problem under Hansi Flick is that they haven't really played well against any big teams but they've absolutely pummeled any team they've had the definitive talent advantage against. While Morocco handled Belgium in our tournament, the Germans are essentially a much better version of the same team: Push the attack dials up to 100 and deal with the fallout.

Result: Morocco 1-3 Germany

Portugal vs. Switzerland: The Swiss are the kind of organized, know-who-we-are team that Portugal have struggled with over the years. I think the same thing probably happens here, much like with France at the Euros. Each team grabs a goal, it goes to penalties and, well, it's pretty much a coin flip from there.

Result: Portugal 1-1 Switzerland, Portugal advances on penalties

 

[HacheMan]

Quarterfinals​

Dec. 9​

Spain vs. Brazil: Wow. These teams were circling each other during the late aughts and early 2010s, with Spain dominating Europe, Brazil doing the same in South America but neither team ever meeting on the world's biggest stage. These seriously might just be the two best teams in the tournament.

Tite has turned Brazil into the best defensive team on the globe, and that's been true for the better part of a decade. Since he took over as coach, they've allowed 3.7 goals -- per year. Meanwhile, Luis Enrique has Spain playing like an elite club team: pressing high and dominating games with complex positional rotations in possession. This would be a title fight, but I think this is where Enrique's refusal to mine for edges -- leaving talented veterans off the squad, laughing away set pieces -- comes back to bite him.

Result: Spain 1-2 Brazil (after extra time)

United States vs. France: Yep, that's going to do it for the Americans. Could they theoretically pull off the upset here? Yes, sure, but just because North Macedonia beats Italy doesn't mean you should predict that it'll happen. It's close to impossible for me to imagine the U.S. scoring against France. And at the other end, who's going to slow down Kylian Mbappe, Karim Benzema, Ousmane Dembele, Kingsley Coman and on and on and on?

Result: U.S. 0-2 France

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Dec. 10​

Germany vs. Portugal: We saw Germany absolutely annihilate Portugal at the Euros in 2021, and outside of the retirement of Toni Kroos, they're now a better -- and better coached -- team. Flick manages in a way that attempts to raise his team's ceiling, while Portugal's Fernando Santos opts to pull up his team's floor.

The latter gets you out of the group stages; the former gets you to the World Cup semifinals.

Germany 2-1 Portugal

England vs. Denmark: It's a day of Euro 2020 rematches!

Denmark really were worthy semifinalists in the summer of 2021, dominating the balance of chances in every match they played ... until England showed up.

Although it went to extra time, England outshot the Danes 20-6, putting nine on target to their opponent's three. The game was in England, of course, but England might have even more talent in Qatar than they had at the Euros. They overwhelmed Denmark last time, and the bounces didn't quite go their way until extra time.

The big difference this time -- beyond the match not being at Wembley Stadium? The tournament is happening in the middle of the season and most of the England roster falls into one of two camps: (1) those who have played an absurd number of minutes over the past 18 months or (2) those who have not played an absurd number of minutes over the past 18 months only because their club managers dropped them due to poor performance. When I looked in mid-September, England had 10 players who had logged at least 5,000 minutes over the previous 365 days, while Denmark only had one: Tottenham's Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg.

For a number of reasons, this World Cup is going to be unlike anything we've seen, and so I think we should all just be way less confident in our predictions, in general. He says, after predicting every game in the tournament? Rather, I mean that I think there's more room for an underdog run and for big teams going down early than there has been in any other modern edition of the tournament. And so, the Danes get their revenge.

Result: England 1-2 Denmark (after extra time)

 

[HacheMan]

Semifinals​

France vs. Brazil (Dec. 13): Whenever these two teams play, it feels like you're watching history unfold in real time. You know the things you're seeing are things people will be talking about in 50 years, and you know it while they're happening: Roberto Carlos violating every law of physics with a free kick; Zinedine Zidane looking like he escaped one of the four mendicant orders to come dominate the 1998 World Cup final; Zidane turning back the clock to knock Brazil out in 2006 round of 16.

This one shouldn't be any different. It'll be decided by a single moment or two that everyone in both countries will remember forever. Since it hasn't really happened for them since 2002, Brazil seems due for a few of those to go their way.

Result: France 1-2 Brazil

Denmark vs. Germany (Dec. 14): This would be as close as we'll come to a Bundesliga game breaking out in Qatar. Most of the top teams in this tournament like to play slowly and carefully. They grind through games that don't feature many turnovers. Not these two, though.

Among qualifiers from Europe, Denmark's matches featured the most possessions per team (93.5), while Germany were essentially the same (93.4). They both won roughly seven possessions per match in the attacking third -- both ranking behind only Japan in that regard. And they both moved the ball upfield at almost exactly the same speed: Denmark at 1.24 meters per second, Germany at 1.23.

We can be more specific than just "a Bundesliga game" -- this might actually look like a Bayern Munich game, if they were to play themselves. The main reason Bayern Munich have won 10 league titles in a row is their large financial advantage over the rest of the league; but another -- very minor -- reason is that most of the league tries to go toe-to-toe with them whenever they play. It makes for a great spectacle, and this theoretical matchup would present the same possibility, but it typically just doesn't work. When you try to press and unsettle Bayern Munich, you're essentially trying to beat them at their own game, and you're typically not going to be able to do that because Bayern Munich will always have better players than you.

This match might feature a similar dynamic.

Result: Denmark 2-3 Germany

 

[HacheMan]

Third-place game​

France vs. Denmark (Dec. 17): Out of principle, I am not going to analyze an imaginary soccer game that shouldn't even exist in the first place. BAN THE THIRD-PLACE GAME. THE PLAYERS DON'T CARE. THE FANS DON'T CARE. THIS TOURNAMENT IS HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE OF A DOMESTIC SOCCER SEASON. WE DON'T NEED THIS, FIFA. REFUND YOUR SPONSORS.

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The 2022 World Cup final​

Brazil vs. Germany (Dec. 18): The main story, of course, would be the 7-1. Can Brazil get revenge for perhaps the most embarrassing defeat in the history of the World Cup? Neymar, theoretically, would be playing, which also would mean that his teammates wouldn't be in tears, moments before kickoff, while they held up his jersey during the national anthem. Also, theoretically, Thiago Silva wouldn't be suspended. Meanwhile, the current German squad features only three holdovers from 2014: Manuel Neuer, Thomas Muller and Mario Gotze.

It's 1 vs. 2 in the Twenty First Group ratings; it's the best defense vs. the best attack.

However, there's also a larger narrative at play in this one: Influenced by a number of innovations that began or were popularized in the Bundesliga, the European club game has become the global epicenter of the world's most popular sport. The best players and coaches and trainers and executives all tend to work in Europe. Pressing is Germany's major tactical export, and the national team does it as aggressively as anyone. Only Morocco and Senegal held their opponents to a lower pass-completion percentage than Flick's team (72.5%). Brazil, meanwhile, stand in refutation of the dominant trend, as they've allowed 82.7% of opposition passes to be completed -- a higher number than everyone in the tournament other than Costa Rica and France.


While there was supposed to be a global leveling in the international game, it seems like it's actually going in the other direction, with European sides becoming ever more dominant thanks to their proximity to the highest echelon of the sport. Among the past 12 top-three finishers at the World Cup, just one (Argentina, in 2014) comes from outside of Europe.

A win for Brazil would be a welcome, if temporary, reversal of where the game is going. Of course, if they do win, they'll be doing it with a roster composed almost completely of players who all work in the same place: Western Europe.

Result: Brazil 2-0 Germany