[h=1]Potential 2013 QB keeper picks[/h][h=3]Fantasy Foresight: Are Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan and Andy Dalton keepers?[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
This week, the emphasis will be on quarterback keeper prospects. An important aspect in determining the short-term value of a quarterback keeper pick is the relative schedule strength of the 2013 season, so each passer's review will include a list of nondivisional opponents for that campaign.
[h=3]Peyton Manning[/h]Broncos 2013 non-divisional opponents: Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington, New York Giants, New England and the AFC North first-place team
It is normally not a good idea to use a roster spot on a quarterback who will be 37 years old at the start of the season, but Manning is an exception to the rule. Despite going through some early season struggles, he ranks fifth in quarterback fantasy points, has posted route-depth metrics that are markedly superior to what he posted in 2010 and recently claimed the top spot in Ron Jaworski's quarterback rankings.
<offer>Those factors all indicate he should still be able to provide fantasy owners with high-end QB1-level points next year, and that is before taking into account the potentially favorable schedule. Every one of the foes listed above has seen its share of coverage issues this year, and the Broncos' AFC West opponents have been just as hit-or-miss, so Manning's point ceiling could be even higher next year.
That makes him a very strong keeper pick in any league, but many owners in leagues that assign draft-round values to keepers might be able to retain Manning for a relatively low cost based on his 2012 ADP rankings. In those cases, he may be the easiest keeper pick those owners ever make.
[h=3]Matt Ryan[/h]Falcons 2013 nondivisional opponents: St. Louis, Seattle, New England, NY Jets, Arizona, San Francisco, Buffalo, Miami, NFC East first-place team and NFC North first-place team
Ryan may seem like a slam-dunk selection, but many of his numbers suggest otherwise.
This year he has operated in a pass-first offense against a schedule that seemed to be ready-made for huge passing numbers (Carolina, two games against Washington and Philadelphia, New Orleans and Oakland), but he still only ranks eighth in fantasy quarterback points.
So what explains the inability to post more points? There isn't a single major reason his point totals have not been higher this year, but rather myriad smaller reasons. There have been injuries at wide receiver (Julio Jones and Roddy White have both battled various physical ailments), a midseason regression by Tony Gonzalez after a great early start (three double-digit-point games to start the season, but only three since then) and a faltering rushing attack (Michael Turner has a career-low 3.7 yards per carry this year) that doesn't force defenses to honor the pass. Ryan's low rushing numbers (103 yards, one touchdown) also don't help matters.
The bad news is that all of these issues look like they could recur in 2013. Jones will still have the question marks about his durability (something that has been in question since his collegiate days), Gonzalez may end up retiring and Jacquizz Rodgers might not be able to handle a full workload. Plus, there is a dearth of running back talent in the NFL draft that could replace Turner in the lineup.
Compounding this is the slate of 2013 opponents that includes very difficult matchups against Seattle, San Francisco, St. Louis and possibly either Green Bay or Chicago.
Add it all up and it means that Ryan's progression to a high-end QB1 is by no means assured. His keeper value should be assessed accordingly.
[h=3]Andy Dalton[/h]Bengals 2013 nondivisional opponents: New England, Buffalo, NY Jets, Miami, Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit, AFC South and AFC West team (determined by the season-ending standings in each division)
Andrew Luck is seen by many as the NFL's quarterback of the future, but consider this: So far this year, Luck has scored 219 fantasy points and Dalton has scored 213 points.
Dalton has been able to post a total of this caliber in part because of the presence of A.J. Green, whose 172 points ranks third among fantasy wide receivers and places him only three points behind Calvin Johnson.
Having a target like Green gives Dalton strong keeper credentials, but there are a couple of downsides to examine.
First, the Bengals are not likely to operate a pass-first offense. According to pro-football-reference.com, only twice in Marvin Lewis' tenure has Cincinnati ranked in the top 10 in pass attempts. It's not like his earlier Bengals clubs lacked for wide receiver talent, either, as they had Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh as a 1-2 wide receiver punch for years.
Lewis probably did not emphasize the pass because of the power of the AFC North defenses. Those platoons are not quite as daunting today, but Pittsburgh is still tough (first in the league in pass yards per attempt allowed), Cleveland is better than generally acknowledged (tied for seventh in YPA allowed) and Baltimore has some skill in the secondary -- and a general manager in Ozzie Newsome who has a proven track record of identifying and acquiring dominant defensive talents.
Another potential downside for Dalton is the Bengals have been unable to develop a WR2 opposite Green. To be fair, they've had just under two seasons to do this and have developed a very good tight end in Jermaine Gresham, but with a roster that doesn't have much in the way of WR2 potential (Mohamed Sanu had the fifth-lowest yards per catch among college wide receivers with at least 80 receptions in 2011), a draft pool that has only one wide receiver in Mel Kiper's latest Big Board and what looks to be a thin class of free-agent wideouts, the prospects for upgrading here are slim.
Put it all together and it means Dalton should be considered a low-end QB1 for the foreseeable future when judging his keeper status.
</offer>
This week, the emphasis will be on quarterback keeper prospects. An important aspect in determining the short-term value of a quarterback keeper pick is the relative schedule strength of the 2013 season, so each passer's review will include a list of nondivisional opponents for that campaign.
[h=3]Peyton Manning[/h]Broncos 2013 non-divisional opponents: Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington, New York Giants, New England and the AFC North first-place team
It is normally not a good idea to use a roster spot on a quarterback who will be 37 years old at the start of the season, but Manning is an exception to the rule. Despite going through some early season struggles, he ranks fifth in quarterback fantasy points, has posted route-depth metrics that are markedly superior to what he posted in 2010 and recently claimed the top spot in Ron Jaworski's quarterback rankings.
<offer>Those factors all indicate he should still be able to provide fantasy owners with high-end QB1-level points next year, and that is before taking into account the potentially favorable schedule. Every one of the foes listed above has seen its share of coverage issues this year, and the Broncos' AFC West opponents have been just as hit-or-miss, so Manning's point ceiling could be even higher next year.
That makes him a very strong keeper pick in any league, but many owners in leagues that assign draft-round values to keepers might be able to retain Manning for a relatively low cost based on his 2012 ADP rankings. In those cases, he may be the easiest keeper pick those owners ever make.
[h=3]Matt Ryan[/h]Falcons 2013 nondivisional opponents: St. Louis, Seattle, New England, NY Jets, Arizona, San Francisco, Buffalo, Miami, NFC East first-place team and NFC North first-place team
Ryan may seem like a slam-dunk selection, but many of his numbers suggest otherwise.
This year he has operated in a pass-first offense against a schedule that seemed to be ready-made for huge passing numbers (Carolina, two games against Washington and Philadelphia, New Orleans and Oakland), but he still only ranks eighth in fantasy quarterback points.
So what explains the inability to post more points? There isn't a single major reason his point totals have not been higher this year, but rather myriad smaller reasons. There have been injuries at wide receiver (Julio Jones and Roddy White have both battled various physical ailments), a midseason regression by Tony Gonzalez after a great early start (three double-digit-point games to start the season, but only three since then) and a faltering rushing attack (Michael Turner has a career-low 3.7 yards per carry this year) that doesn't force defenses to honor the pass. Ryan's low rushing numbers (103 yards, one touchdown) also don't help matters.
The bad news is that all of these issues look like they could recur in 2013. Jones will still have the question marks about his durability (something that has been in question since his collegiate days), Gonzalez may end up retiring and Jacquizz Rodgers might not be able to handle a full workload. Plus, there is a dearth of running back talent in the NFL draft that could replace Turner in the lineup.
Compounding this is the slate of 2013 opponents that includes very difficult matchups against Seattle, San Francisco, St. Louis and possibly either Green Bay or Chicago.
Add it all up and it means that Ryan's progression to a high-end QB1 is by no means assured. His keeper value should be assessed accordingly.
[h=3]Andy Dalton[/h]Bengals 2013 nondivisional opponents: New England, Buffalo, NY Jets, Miami, Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit, AFC South and AFC West team (determined by the season-ending standings in each division)
Andrew Luck is seen by many as the NFL's quarterback of the future, but consider this: So far this year, Luck has scored 219 fantasy points and Dalton has scored 213 points.
Dalton has been able to post a total of this caliber in part because of the presence of A.J. Green, whose 172 points ranks third among fantasy wide receivers and places him only three points behind Calvin Johnson.
Having a target like Green gives Dalton strong keeper credentials, but there are a couple of downsides to examine.
First, the Bengals are not likely to operate a pass-first offense. According to pro-football-reference.com, only twice in Marvin Lewis' tenure has Cincinnati ranked in the top 10 in pass attempts. It's not like his earlier Bengals clubs lacked for wide receiver talent, either, as they had Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh as a 1-2 wide receiver punch for years.
Lewis probably did not emphasize the pass because of the power of the AFC North defenses. Those platoons are not quite as daunting today, but Pittsburgh is still tough (first in the league in pass yards per attempt allowed), Cleveland is better than generally acknowledged (tied for seventh in YPA allowed) and Baltimore has some skill in the secondary -- and a general manager in Ozzie Newsome who has a proven track record of identifying and acquiring dominant defensive talents.
Another potential downside for Dalton is the Bengals have been unable to develop a WR2 opposite Green. To be fair, they've had just under two seasons to do this and have developed a very good tight end in Jermaine Gresham, but with a roster that doesn't have much in the way of WR2 potential (Mohamed Sanu had the fifth-lowest yards per catch among college wide receivers with at least 80 receptions in 2011), a draft pool that has only one wide receiver in Mel Kiper's latest Big Board and what looks to be a thin class of free-agent wideouts, the prospects for upgrading here are slim.
Put it all together and it means Dalton should be considered a low-end QB1 for the foreseeable future when judging his keeper status.
</offer>
