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[Pesos]

Wednesday's Notes

Hottest team: Cubs (7-2 last nine) vs. Reds

Chicago pulled off an exciting home sweep over Toronto this past weekend, as the Cubs rallied once again on Tuesday to beat the Reds, 13-9. The defending champions overcame a pair of three-run deficits to win their fourth in a row, while staying a step ahead of Milwaukee and St. Louis in the NL Central race. Since dropping the final two games at San Francisco earlier this month, the Cubs have scored at least six runs eight times, while improving to 9-5 against the Reds this season.

Mike Montgomery heads to the mound for Chicago as the southpaw makes his first start since July 19 at Atlanta in an 8-2 victory. Montgomery lost the last time he started at Cincinnati on June 30, allowing four earned runs in 6.2 innings of a 5-0 defeat, as the Cubs are 3-5 in his eight starts this season.

Coldest team: Mets (1-8 last nine) vs. Diamondbacks

Things continue to unravel for the “other” New York team after losing the first two games to Arizona. Following an extra-innings loss on Monday, the Mets fell short in a 7-4 defeat on Tuesday to drop to 2-11 in the last 13 games at Citi Field. The Mets have yet to knock off the D-Backs this season by going 0-5 against Arizona, while being held to four runs or fewer in all five losses.

Rookie Chris Flexen looks to give New York its first victory over Arizona as the right-hander had his short two-game winning streak snapped in a 3-1 defeat to Miami in his previous trip to the mound. Flexen has walked more batters than he has struck out (16 to 14), while allowing at least three earned runs in four of his first five starts.

Hottest pitcher: Dylan Bundy, Orioles (12-8, 4.17 ERA)

Baltimore remains under the .500 mark, but Bundy has been on fire since the All-Star break. In his last five starts, the Orioles are 5-0, while Bundy has struck out 10 batters in each of his past two appearances. Bundy dominated the A’s in his previous trip to the mound on August 12 in a 12-5 victory as he tossed six innings and allowed three earned runs. Bundy has benefited from terrific run support during this five-game stretch as the O’s have averaged 9.2 runs per contest, while scoring at least six runs in each of his last seven starts that Baltimore won.

Coldest pitcher: Trevor Williams, Pirates (5-6, 4.71 ERA)

Pittsburgh fell to 0-5 against Los Angeles this season after dropping an 8-5 decision at home on Tuesday. Williams is winless in four of his past five starts, while allowing a season-high eight earned runs in three innings of an 11-10 setback to St. Louis his last time out. The right-hander looks to avenge a 12-1 defeat to the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine in early May as he gave up eight runs (six earned) in three innings, as the Pirates look to beat the Dodgers for the first time since August 2016.

Biggest OVER run: Phillies (7-2 last nine)

Philadelphia may be going nowhere at this point of the season, but the Phillies are playing exciting games. On Tuesday, the Phillies lost both games of a double-header to the Marlins, but eclipsed the OVER in each contest, while allowing 19 runs to Miami. In four of the past five contests, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up at least seven runs, while losing five of its previous six games at Citizens Bank Park.

Biggest UNDER run: Athletics (5-0 last five)

Oakland held off Baltimore on Tuesday, 6-4, but still cashed the UNDER on the high total of 11. In fact, both games between the A’s and Orioles have reached 10 runs, but the inflated total of 11 kept Oakland’s UNDER streak going. Oakland reached the six-run mark on Tuesday after scoring a total of six runs in its previous three games combined. Sean Manaea will look for a better showing against Baltimore after not escaping the first inning in a 12-5 defeat on August 12, while the Oakland southpaw is 8-2 to the OVER in his last 10 outings.

Matchup to watch: Nationals vs. Astros

Washington and Houston continue its three-game series on Wednesday as these two elite squads may see each other again in the World Series. The Nationals edged the Astros in the opener, 4-3 to cash as +160 underdogs, as Washington owns one fewer victory (75) than Houston (76). Washington improved to 7-0 in its previous seven series openers, while looking to build on a 7-4 record in its past 11 Game 2’s of a road series.

Edwin Jackson takes the mound for Washington as the right-hander owns a solid 4-2 mark in his six starts since coming over from Baltimore in July. Jackson has allowed one earned run in three of his past four starts, while picking up road victories over the Angels and Padres.

Mike Fiers counters for Houston, as the right-hander is going backwards of late with the Astros dropping four of his past five starts. The Astros are 1-2 in his last three home outings as Houston rallied for a 7-6 walk-off victory in the lone win in this stretch as Fiers yielded five runs in that victory. Houston is looking to avoid its fifth losing streak of at least three games at Minute Maid Park this season.

Betcha didn’t know: The Padres blasted the Cardinals in their series opener at Busch Stadium on Tuesday to snap a six-game losing streak to St. Louis dating back to last April. San Diego is worth a look on Wednesday as a +155 underdog as the Padres have compiled a solid 6-3 record in its past nine Game 2’s of a road series.

Biggest public favorite: Yankees (-210) at Tigers

Biggest public underdog: Rockies (+110) at Royals

Biggest line move: Cardinals (-160 to -170) vs. Padres

 

[Pesos]

Double-Play Picks

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (+130, 10)

The Cubs and Reds collide in Cincinnati this evening for Game 2 of their three-game series.

These two offensive-minded teams met last week for four games at Wrigley Field and it was a fireworks display, with three of the four games going over the total and an average combined score of 14.75 runs per game. And last night the two teams combined for 22 runs (a winner on the Over for us) in a 13-9 win for the Cubs.

That means the Cubs and Reds are averaging 16.2 total combined runs in their last five head-to-head meetings.

Today at the Great American Ball Park should be no different. The wind is expected to be blowing out to right-center (7-9 miles per hour) and the ball will be flying once again.

The Cubs are averaging 7.78 runs per game over their last nine contests and will send left-hander Mike Montgomery to the mound tonight. Monty will be making his first start since July 19. He's been pretty good out of the bullpen, but over his last four starting assignments his ERA is a lofty 7.45.

Montgomery's only career start against the Reds came earlier this season when he allowed four earned runs over 6.2 innings of work, including nine hits and a home run, in an eventual 5-0 loss in Cincinnati.

The Reds will send young right-hander Asher Wojciechowski to the hill to attempt to slow down the streaking World Champions. Asher started against the Cubs last Monday and was absolutely destroyed to the tune of seven earned runs, 10 hits, and two home runs allowed in just 3.2 innings of work at Wrigley Field.

Over Woj's last three appearances he has worked 11.1 innings, owns an ERA of 9.53, owns a WHIP of 1.853, and has allowed five home runs to opposing hitters.

Two offensive-minded teams, two struggling pitchers, a hitter's ballpark, and a slight hitter's wind. Gimme, gimme, gimme.

Pick: Over 10

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (+101, 8.5)

Both the Blue Jays and Rays are quickly falling out of contention for the second wildcard spot in the American League, but luckily for Toronto they send a guy to the mound for Wednesday’s matchup in Tampa Bay who gives his all on every pitch, no matter the score, count or standings.

That’s right, Marcus Stroman will be toeing the rubber for Game 2 of this American League East battle, and the “Height Doesn’t Measure Heart” right-hander has been one of the lone bright spots in this Blue Jays’ season and has been light’s out in his last three starts.

Stroman has complied a 11-6 record with a 2.99 ERA (third best in the American League) and a 1.30 WHIP this season and despite a 1-1 record in his last three starts, he has pitched to a 1.71 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. In fact, his last start was against the Rays, where he scattered two runs on six hits over 6.1 innings pitched in a 3-2 win.

The Rays counter with 27-year-old rookie Austin Pruitt, who is 1-3 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in six starts since joining the Tampa Bay rotation.

Yes, the Blue Jays have lost four straight, but Stroman thrives in being able to help his team out of a slump. Plus, he is 4-1 with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in five career starts at Tropicana Field.

Pick: Blue Jays -111

Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 122-112-13

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians (12-3, 2.67 ERA, $-49)

It was a bit of a roller coaster start to the season for the Indians, but they have used the dog days of summer to round into form and starter Corey Kluber has been no different.

In his first five starts this season he pitched to a 5.06 ERA, but since then he has turned it on. In fact, of Kluber’s last 15 starts, 12 have been quality ones. In his last four starts, he is 4-0 with a 1.78 ERA and a 0.659 WHIP, while racking up 35 strikeouts to just four walks.

Kluber and the Indians are big -180 home favorites against the visiting Red Sox.

Slumping: Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers (7-10, 5.87 ERA, $-479)

Oh boy. The Tigers owe Jordan Zimmermann a lot of money for a lot more seasons and, right now, they are not getting their money’s worth.

Zimmermann has struggled mightily in his second season in Detroit, going 7-10 with a 5.87 ERA (the worst of his career) and a 1.519 WHIP. In his last two starts, Zimmermann has allowed 14 earned runs on 18 hits in just 8.2 innings pitched.

Zimmermann and the Tigers are big +180 home dogs today when they host the Yankees.

Wednesday's Top Trends

* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 54-10 in their last 64 overall. -160 today at Pirates.
* Under is 9-0 in the Washington Nationals' last nine interleague games. Nats/Astros Total: 9.5.
* Over is 11-1 in the St. Louis Cardinals' last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter. Padres/Cards Total: 8.5.
* The Colorado Rockies are 4-17 in their last 21 road games vs. a right-handed starter. +120 today at Royals (Kennedy).

Weather To Keep An Eye On

Fingers crossed - there shouldn't be any precipitation that will interrupt any of today's games on the MLB schedule.

It should be a pretty calm day in the wind department as well, with the only wind getting over 10 miles per hour will be a 12-15 MPH breeze blowing out to center field at AT&T Park in San Francisco where the Giants will host the Brewers this afternoon. The total for that game is set at 9.

Ump Of The Day

Angel Hernandez: MLB umpires are pissed off and, generally speaking, nobody gets more pissed off and involved in the action than Angel Hernandez. Most average baseball fans couldn't name three MLB umpires - but everyone knows Angel Hernandez (and Joe West).

With all of the controversy involving umpires over the last few weeks, Hernandez has taken it upon himself to get games over and get off the field as quickly as possible. That means plenty of strikes called and plenty of Unders. The Under has now cashed in his last nine games behind the plate and his strike percentage is now a whopping 64.2 percent for the season.

Angel will be calling balls and strikes in Baltimore this afternoon where the O's will host the A's. The total is currently set at 10.5.