By Susan Page and Richard Benedetto
USA TODAY
WASHINGTON -- This has not been a happy new year for President Bush.
A drumbeat of attack by the Democratic presidential contenders, credible allegations about intelligence failings on Iraq and an uninspiring State of the Union message have shaken the solid political standing he seemed to have just a few weeks ago.
A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Thursday through Sunday showed Bush getting the sort of marks that presidents prefer to avoid: The lowest job-approval rating -- and highest disapproval rating -- of his term. Close to his worst ratings ever for his handling of the economy, health care and Iraq. Optimism about the economy has faded; support for the war in Iraq has waned.
What is equally worrisome to the White House: The rankings for his likely Democratic opponent, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, are heading in the other direction.
Kerry is suddenly in a commanding position to claim the Democratic nomination, thanks to his first-place finishes in the opening Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary last month. Three weeks ago, the poll found Kerry mired in third place in the Democratic field, at 9%. Now he's at 49%. The nomination used to be Howard Dean's to lose; the former Vermont governor seems to have done that, sinking to second place at 14%.
Kerry's standing has strengthened not only against his Democratic rivals but also against Bush. For the first time, he clearly defeats the president in a head-to-head matchup, 53% to 46%. By 63% to 24%, those surveyed say Kerry would be a good president.
''A confluence of events -- problems in Iraq, the failure to find weapons of mass destruction (in Iraq) and the Democratic presidential candidates occupying so much media space -- are hurting Bush,'' says Frank Newport, Gallup editor in chief. Perhaps the most troubling finding for the White House: For the first time, fewer than half those polled say it was worth going to war in Iraq.
Bush's top international ally on Iraq, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, is also bending to criticism. He is expected to announce today that he will appoint a commission to investigate faulty prewar intelligence.
Strategists in both parties caution against putting too much weight on a single survey. The poll captures a moment that is good for Kerry and bad for Bush. The Massachusetts senator has been the beneficiary of two weeks of publicity showing his arms raised in victory. Bush has been pummeled by Democratic contenders without hitting back.
But analysts also agree that the results spotlight vulnerabilities for Bush on the economy, on foreign policy and even on his attributes as a leader, his greatest strength since the terror attacks of 2001. In the end, the most damaging development for Bush may turn out to be the testimony last week by former chief U.S. arms inspector David Kay that intelligence warnings before the war about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction were wrong.
''Either his competence or his credibility has been dealt a severe blow by Kay,'' says Mark Mellman, a pollster and strategist for Kerry's campaign.
Bush's chief campaign strategist, Matthew Dowd, says the findings are predictable ones. In fact, he predicted them: In memos that the Bush campaign circulated, Dowd wrote last April and November that the Democratic nominee would at some points in this campaign be leading the president. The nation is polarized and almost evenly divided politically, he notes.
But that moment has come more quickly than Dowd expected, and perhaps with more ferocity.
Bush is taking steps to address the concerns. He met Monday with Kay and announced he would order an investigation into the intelligence failings. ''I want to know all the facts,'' he told reporters. His administration insists the economy is recovering, although it has yet to begin creating significant numbers of jobs, a big issue.
And Bush's campaign is beginning to attack Kerry, now that he's emerged as the apparent Democratic nominee. ''The campaign has always said as soon as we think they've decided who the nominee is, the campaign will engage in a much more concerted way,'' Dowd says.
It's about time, Republican pollster Neil Newhouse says. ''You can take criticism for only so long before you've got to set the record straight,'' he says. ''Unanswered criticisms in a political campaign are often damaging to political health.''
Bush retains some major advantages. By wide margins over Kerry, voters say Bush is a strong and decisive leader and a person who stands up for what he believes. But by equally wide margins, respondents say Kerry is more in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face. Those surveyed say Kerry, more than Bush, puts the country's interests ahead of his own political interests.
By 50% to 44%, those surveyed say Bush would do a better job handling the situation in Iraq than Kerry. But Kerry is trusted more on some other fronts: to make a decision about sending troops to war, to protect your family's economic interests, to make sure good jobs are available.
And history's lessons?
Only twice have presidents been trailing challengers at this point in an election year. In 1948, Harry Truman managed to come back and win. In 1976, Gerald Ford didn't.
USA TODAY
WASHINGTON -- This has not been a happy new year for President Bush.
A drumbeat of attack by the Democratic presidential contenders, credible allegations about intelligence failings on Iraq and an uninspiring State of the Union message have shaken the solid political standing he seemed to have just a few weeks ago.
A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Thursday through Sunday showed Bush getting the sort of marks that presidents prefer to avoid: The lowest job-approval rating -- and highest disapproval rating -- of his term. Close to his worst ratings ever for his handling of the economy, health care and Iraq. Optimism about the economy has faded; support for the war in Iraq has waned.
What is equally worrisome to the White House: The rankings for his likely Democratic opponent, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, are heading in the other direction.
Kerry is suddenly in a commanding position to claim the Democratic nomination, thanks to his first-place finishes in the opening Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary last month. Three weeks ago, the poll found Kerry mired in third place in the Democratic field, at 9%. Now he's at 49%. The nomination used to be Howard Dean's to lose; the former Vermont governor seems to have done that, sinking to second place at 14%.
Kerry's standing has strengthened not only against his Democratic rivals but also against Bush. For the first time, he clearly defeats the president in a head-to-head matchup, 53% to 46%. By 63% to 24%, those surveyed say Kerry would be a good president.
''A confluence of events -- problems in Iraq, the failure to find weapons of mass destruction (in Iraq) and the Democratic presidential candidates occupying so much media space -- are hurting Bush,'' says Frank Newport, Gallup editor in chief. Perhaps the most troubling finding for the White House: For the first time, fewer than half those polled say it was worth going to war in Iraq.
Bush's top international ally on Iraq, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, is also bending to criticism. He is expected to announce today that he will appoint a commission to investigate faulty prewar intelligence.
Strategists in both parties caution against putting too much weight on a single survey. The poll captures a moment that is good for Kerry and bad for Bush. The Massachusetts senator has been the beneficiary of two weeks of publicity showing his arms raised in victory. Bush has been pummeled by Democratic contenders without hitting back.
But analysts also agree that the results spotlight vulnerabilities for Bush on the economy, on foreign policy and even on his attributes as a leader, his greatest strength since the terror attacks of 2001. In the end, the most damaging development for Bush may turn out to be the testimony last week by former chief U.S. arms inspector David Kay that intelligence warnings before the war about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction were wrong.
''Either his competence or his credibility has been dealt a severe blow by Kay,'' says Mark Mellman, a pollster and strategist for Kerry's campaign.
Bush's chief campaign strategist, Matthew Dowd, says the findings are predictable ones. In fact, he predicted them: In memos that the Bush campaign circulated, Dowd wrote last April and November that the Democratic nominee would at some points in this campaign be leading the president. The nation is polarized and almost evenly divided politically, he notes.
But that moment has come more quickly than Dowd expected, and perhaps with more ferocity.
Bush is taking steps to address the concerns. He met Monday with Kay and announced he would order an investigation into the intelligence failings. ''I want to know all the facts,'' he told reporters. His administration insists the economy is recovering, although it has yet to begin creating significant numbers of jobs, a big issue.
And Bush's campaign is beginning to attack Kerry, now that he's emerged as the apparent Democratic nominee. ''The campaign has always said as soon as we think they've decided who the nominee is, the campaign will engage in a much more concerted way,'' Dowd says.
It's about time, Republican pollster Neil Newhouse says. ''You can take criticism for only so long before you've got to set the record straight,'' he says. ''Unanswered criticisms in a political campaign are often damaging to political health.''
Bush retains some major advantages. By wide margins over Kerry, voters say Bush is a strong and decisive leader and a person who stands up for what he believes. But by equally wide margins, respondents say Kerry is more in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face. Those surveyed say Kerry, more than Bush, puts the country's interests ahead of his own political interests.
By 50% to 44%, those surveyed say Bush would do a better job handling the situation in Iraq than Kerry. But Kerry is trusted more on some other fronts: to make a decision about sending troops to war, to protect your family's economic interests, to make sure good jobs are available.
And history's lessons?
Only twice have presidents been trailing challengers at this point in an election year. In 1948, Harry Truman managed to come back and win. In 1976, Gerald Ford didn't.
