10-1; on a late-season roll except Sunday when they pulled their starters. Of the several longshots they are the only ones with a real "shot" but imho the real odds ought to be 15-1 or so, 10-1 is just what I can find right now.
You could also get 10-1 on Green Bay and play the "team of destiny" angle but I think Seattle will undo that angle this weekend.
You could also get 10-1 on Green Bay and play the "team of destiny" angle but I think Seattle will undo that angle this weekend.
RPM,
I disagree on your Tennessee 10-1 evaluation. Tennessee will have to win 4 games to cash, not 3. Let's assume that they win at +115 against the Ravens, if you were fast enough. If Indy wins, they play New England. They would be probably about a 5-7 point dog. ML (+170)-(+220). If they played Kansas City, ML would be about +130.
For the sake of argument, let's say Denver wins and then beats New England as well. Tennessee would play Denver at home and probably be a 6.5 point favorite, ML -230. Same ML if they played Dallas in the Super Bowl.
Start: $1
Win over Baltimore: $2.15
Win over Kansas City: $4.95*
Win over Denver: $7.10*
Win over Dallas: $10.19*
*Figure was rounded to nearest cent
I think we can both agree this scenario is highly unlikely.
This one is more likely IMO
Win over Baltimore: $2.15
Win over Kansas City: $4.95*
Win over New England: $14.85**
Win over Philadelphia: $26.73
*number was rounded
**took median number of the price I listed
I did those numbers rather quickly and if they're off please tell me. The reason I posted this was to discourage the 10-1 is as good as you can get theory. You have to come up with your own reasoning as to what the likelihood of certain things happening and make your wagers from there. Personally, I don't think Dallas or Carolina have a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Stranger things have happened. If they did somehow make it, it would be a bloodbath IMO. I'm not saying Philadelphia is my choice for NFC representative, but it's been a wild year and I'll go with the favorite until they're beaten.
I disagree on your Tennessee 10-1 evaluation. Tennessee will have to win 4 games to cash, not 3. Let's assume that they win at +115 against the Ravens, if you were fast enough. If Indy wins, they play New England. They would be probably about a 5-7 point dog. ML (+170)-(+220). If they played Kansas City, ML would be about +130.
For the sake of argument, let's say Denver wins and then beats New England as well. Tennessee would play Denver at home and probably be a 6.5 point favorite, ML -230. Same ML if they played Dallas in the Super Bowl.
Start: $1
Win over Baltimore: $2.15
Win over Kansas City: $4.95*
Win over Denver: $7.10*
Win over Dallas: $10.19*
*Figure was rounded to nearest cent
I think we can both agree this scenario is highly unlikely.
This one is more likely IMO
Win over Baltimore: $2.15
Win over Kansas City: $4.95*
Win over New England: $14.85**
Win over Philadelphia: $26.73
*number was rounded
**took median number of the price I listed
I did those numbers rather quickly and if they're off please tell me. The reason I posted this was to discourage the 10-1 is as good as you can get theory. You have to come up with your own reasoning as to what the likelihood of certain things happening and make your wagers from there. Personally, I don't think Dallas or Carolina have a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Stranger things have happened. If they did somehow make it, it would be a bloodbath IMO. I'm not saying Philadelphia is my choice for NFC representative, but it's been a wild year and I'll go with the favorite until they're beaten.
