Playoffs Round 3 - My Lines and Plays

[thecruncher]

Hi all. Year-to-date roundup: 118-88.5-1 for +29.5 Units. A very solid year, and I'm really pleased with the results of the spreadsheet program I've developed and worked on throughout the season to find value in games.

Away Team__PS__MyPS__Value
Home Team_Total_MyTotal_Value

Falcons__+4.5_+7.27__Eagles 2.77 Value
Eagles___42___42.37__Over .37 Value

Patriots___-2__-.03__Steelers 1.97 Value
Steelers___37__41.08_Over 4.08 Value

Plays

Eagles -4.5 -- 1.5 Units
Experience and home field should win the day in this contest.

Pitts/NE Over 37 -- 1 Unit
Weather figures to be cold and a little snowy, so I'll keep checking the forecast throughout the week and gameday in case it gets nastier. If it does, I may just eat the juice and get off this play.

2Team 7point Teaser
Pitts/NE Over 30 w/ Pitts+10 -- 1 Unit

I'm not sure Big Ben the rookie can win this one against a tough and experienced Patriots team, but it looks like the Steelers should hang tough in this one. Low total = good tease.

Just a few small plays this week, as I'm not really in love with anything here. BOL this week to all.

 

[THEBUFFROCK]

Cruncher.......I too love the over in the Pit game. I also agree Big Ben will show more of his "rookieness" and the Pats should win quite easily.


GL

 

[Deb12]

Hey thecruncher..

Great job crunching the Championship games already...thanks!

 

[thecruncher]

The Pitt/NE total is creeping downward, so I bet 1 Unit on the Under while it was still at 37. I bet the original Over 37 w/ plus juice, so the total juice I had to drink was not too great. There's a 36.5 at Hollywood right now. It looks like it will be a game time decision whether to bet the Over or not, as I don't want a repeat of the NE/Indy Over of yesterday, where I had to bet Under 21.5 2nd half to recoup the original Unit I had on the Over, lol.

 

[thecruncher]

Okay, now that the O/U is at 34.5, I've sprung for 1.5 Units on the Over in the Pitts/NE game. I'm also taking Over 37 in the Philly/Atl game for 1 Unit.

Also, 3Team 10 Point teaser - PittOver24.5/Pitt+13/Philly+4 for 2 Units

And, the Patriots -2.5 for 2 Units -- so I'm basically hoping to middle this game with points scored in both. My head just can't accept that the Steelers can win this game. I'm hoping they keep it close. BOL and enjoy the games! (though that ususally requires winning the $$$, lol)