Playoff advantage

[PsychedelicPicks]

+18 before St Lou
-2 after losing to St Lou equals +16
+3 after beating Zona equals +19
what am I missing?
if I am doing something wrong, my apologies ahead of time

The final score for St Louis @ Seattle was 23-17.. Seattle wouldn't lose points because St. Louis didn't score more than 30 or score less than 14.

 

[THEGAME9000]

The final score for St Louis @ Seattle was 23-17.. Seattle wouldn't lose points because St. Louis didn't score more than 30 or score less than 14.

Exactly...the devil is in the details...have to read carefully.
The reason, if you look back at the original post, a couple weeks back I said Seattle needs to win out for the reason of having the same or better reg season record than the only 2 possible sb opponents I could foresee..I didn't think Pittsburgh would take care of that small detail by themselves and lose to Baltimore.
But that just made the lining up of "the perfect scenario" fall into place almost unbelievably.
Whichever one of the 2 teams, (Kansas city or Pittsburgh) had the worse reg season record would be seattles opponent and eventual winner. Not only does Pitt lose to Balt, but kc holds up their end by running the table...
Regular season records are integral in the Super Bowl...but now I'm getting way ahead of the reason of this post, I was just looking to hopefully catch either or both Seattle and Pittsburgh in the position of being an underdog a couple of times in the playoffs, and money lining them along with the totals in parlay form.
Looks like that won't happen in wc round...maybe in the div round....who knows...
I'll break down the reasons for the plays tomorrow when the games get closer to the final lines and see who's playing or not....
I don't think it takes too much thinking on the afc or nfc side looking at injuries, or naming the starting quarterbacks of teams with the playoff or big game experience of the trigger pullers facing each other in literally every game.

I got in late tonight but I'll be back up closer to the games tomorrow, looking at who's who and how, why and against which teams, everybody's record should be a strong sell in these playoffs.
Just that, of looking at who won and lost to who and where they did is a how to bet roadmap in this years playoffs...in my opinion (of course)...if upsets happen this year it will be by accident or in-game early key injuries.

GAME.

 

[THEGAME9000]

Also, the final #'s, which I myself said should not be applied to the playoff games, may be a realistic guide as to who wins and by how much...it has after all been hands down the craziest year I have seen since 85 as far as stats and trends not only not meaning much, but we're literally steering choices in the complete wrong direction.

The final #'s for the remaining playoff teams

Arizona 130
Carolina 128
Cincinnati 128
Denver 125
Green Bay 122
Houston 120
Kansas City 128
Minnesota 123
New England 124
Pittsburgh 128
Seattle 131
Washington 119

GAME.

 

[THEGAME9000]

The wildcard round....

It's tough for me to get past experience from the top down, the coaches who call the shots along with the quarterbacks who execute the game plan....
Kc at hou...Reid and smith vs obrien and hoyer...
Pit at cin....Tomlin and rothlisberger vs Lewis and mccarrin...
Sea at min...Carroll and Wilson vs Zimmer and bridge water...
Gb at wash...McCarthy and Rodgers vs gruden and cousins...

Then home field advantages...
At Houston, probably 3pts
At Cincinnati, none (divisional rivalry)
At Minnesota, ice cold (benefits no one)
At Washington, probably 3-4pts

Totals...
Everyone gets excited when playoffs start looking for points and wild games, facts dictate wildcard games tend to be more lackluster than not with one sided games or low scoring affairs..
Since 2010 all wc games have seen 6 overs, 13 unders, 1 push (6-13-1), it's also split evenly by both conferences, 3-6-1 under for afc, 3-7 under for nfc.
The one thing that jumps out is that the smaller the spread, the lower the total...during the same time frame(last 5 years) from 2010, when a wc game has a point spread of 3 or less, (9 games), these games have seen 1 over, 7 unders and 1 push...3 games this weekend will probably see a spread of 3 or less.

Head coaches, quarterbacks, playoff experience and what home field advantage there is, as I mentioned earlier, an upset this weekend will have to be accidental or by injury...not saying it can't or won't happen, just saying I doubt it will.

I'll go with experience and veteran leadership in the playoffs over dumb luck..

GAME.

 

[THEGAME9000]

Who'd a thunk it???

As soon as the lines come out tomorrow be ready to put in a 3-team pleaser that will pay ridiculously....

It will be as close to a sure thing as it gets, without being one.

I'll give up the parlay tomorrow after work.

GAME.

 

[nino-nutz]

on who

 

[nino-nutz]

ok got it after work thnx

 

[Lvtexholdm]

Seems Pitt and Hawks are obviously a very good ML next weekend. Pitt already catching almost a TD. Hawks will prolly be in the same spread. Pitt & Hawks ML has my attention. Thanks Game!

Tex

 

[candylicker]

Looking forward to it...you posting tonight after work still

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

You are on the ball with seattle not winning it I can reassure you that for sure. I like them to knock off Carolina though. Only thing that makes sense now or else we would of seen 1 vs 2 in the NFC if Minny won.

 

[justanobserver]

Really waiting to see this parlay for the weekend, I believe it will be KC ML, Sea ML, and Pitt ML.

Anyways I was perusing 5dimes and saw that you can parlay NFL futures, and i came up with this because of this thread.

5 Team Parlay - $25 to win $118,502.63

Steelers +231 to win vs. Broncos
Seattle +118 to win vs. Carolina
Steelers +685 to win the AFC
Seattle +365 to win NFC
Steelers +1700 to win Superbowl

Crazy thing is that you could also throw in ML's for the possible games next week (and they are only on if those two teams make it) which would add:

Worse case scenario:

Seattle -145 to beat GB
Steelers +150 to beat Chiefs

making it a 7 Teamer - $25 to win $500,652.07

 

[torpedomo]

Wouldn't you be concerned an offshore book to pay you out 6 figures on a 25$ bet? I would be worried..

 

[PigskinArmor]

Wouldn't you be concerned an offshore book to pay you out 6 figures on a 25$ bet? I would be worried..

better chance than a local

 

[torpedomo]

GAME, how did you get that parlay to go through? I tried doing it on 5dimes and it was invalid--wouldn't let you make that combination

 

[justanobserver]

I am pretty newish (only 3 years) to sports gambling, is there history of offshore books not paying out?

 

[CoolBreeze22]

I am pretty newish (only 3 years) to sports gambling, is there history of offshore books not paying out?

haha. Post of the year. Or should I say post of the past 20 years.

 

[mickj]

I am pretty newish (only 3 years) to sports gambling, is there history of offshore books not paying out?

Well. not 5Dimes. But there have been 1 or 2 others. @)

 

[her288]

Game by looking at the way Pit and Sea beating their opponents in an unbelievable manner last week, I am starting to agree with your breakdown on the SB match up. Hope we can solve this puzzle and win the last five games.

 

[justanobserver]

GAME, how did you get that parlay to go through? I tried doing it on 5dimes and it was invalid--wouldn't let you make that combination

It was me who said to do that parlay and you are right they will not let you bet that combo. Disregard previous post.

 

[truguru]

damn. i think brown is out. you mentioned injuries can change an entire game or the way things "should go"
does big ben and browns injury eliminate the system? do major line moves change anything?


thanks