Playing Blackjack at the casino today ...

[EverFresh]

Blackjack Legends: Kerry Packer

While most famous blackjack players accumulate their wealth on the tables and through books, Kerry Packer is an exception to the norm. Packer built a media empire over his lifetime, and became the richest man in Australia ($A6.5 billion) before his death in 2005. Beyond his extravagant wealth and media empire, the Aussie was known for his high stakes gambling ventures into blackjack, poker, baccarat and other games. Of course, what we’re most interested in here is the blackjack, and how Packer became a legend for his play which ultimately resulted in a net loss.
Extreme Variance
While the house holds a small edge over the average blackjack player, they still feared Kerry Packer. At the stakes the media mogul played, he could either make or break a casino’s profits for the entire year. But he wasn’t always breaking casinos, which is why many establishments allowed him to bet whatever he desired.
On one occasion, Packer reportedly lost $20 million while at the Bellagio Casino in Las Vegas. Another story had the billionaire dropping $19 million at the Ritz Club in Vegas. However, he also experienced plenty of success too such as the time he reportedly forced London’s Aspinalls Club to shut down after winning so much money in blackjack. Another time saw him winning somewhere between $24 and $33 million from the MGM Grand while playing both blackjack and baccarat. Amazingly, it’s said that Packer almost broke the MGM Grand, which resulted in the firing of several prominent employees who let him make huge bets.
Packer’s Blackjack Legacy
There is perhaps no blackjack player – nor gambler of any kind – who can boast of wins and losses the size of Kerry Packer’s. After all, few billionaires are big gamblers, much less to the extent that Packer was. He made blackjack bets worth $300,000 or more on a single hand, and never sulked after a multi-million dollar losing session.
It’s often been said of the Aussie that he played blackjack when he was bored, and he was bored quite often. Seeing as how he gambled so frequently, Packer was able to accumulate quite a collection of interesting stories. One of the most-told stories was when a Texas oil tycoon was mouthing off to him and said, “You know who I am partner? I’m worth $60 million!” Packer then pulled out a coin and said, “I’ll flip you for it.” As you can tell by this story, Kerry Packer was quite the spectacle at casinos, and it’s no reason why he became such a legend.

 

[Illini]

I really don't have the patience to discuss this post after post.

I think I know our problem, though.

I never said the math does not exist. I fully understand.

Never said I depend on, profit by.... whatever from streaks.

All I ever insisted on was that short term streaks (varience) happens. Some have said they don't. I am not sure we even had a serious disagreement. Just talking short term or long term?

Just admit that you have no idea how to win at any form of gambling and that you're down a shit ton lifetime. Nothing wrong with being a dumb gambler, it's a dumb gambler that insists on arguing with smart gamblers that gets ridiculed.

 

[packer2012]

You probably would have more creditably if you have would get rid of that word "STREAKS" and use the word "VARIANCE". That happens all the time.

You are probably right Motor. But "STREAKS" and "VARIANCE" are the same thing for this conversation. I just enjoy watching these kids make their points hiding behind math. The math is absolutely true, but does not contradict the fact that these short term circumstances occur.

And, by the way, "Big Chief Poopy Pants".... I used to think you were a powerful man...... now I see, that like so many, you are one of the boys. Your confusion comes about because...... if you ever played BJ for REAL BIG money...... the streaks would be in your britches.

Blackjack Legends: Kerry Packer

While most famous blackjack players accumulate their wealth on the tables and through books, Kerry Packer is an exception to the norm. Packer built a media empire over his lifetime, and became the richest man in Australia ($A6.5 billion) before his death in 2005. Beyond his extravagant wealth and media empire, the Aussie was known for his high stakes gambling ventures into blackjack, poker, baccarat and other games. Of course, what we’re most interested in here is the blackjack, and how Packer became a legend for his play which ultimately resulted in a net loss.
Extreme Variance
While the house holds a small edge over the average blackjack player, they still feared Kerry Packer. At the stakes the media mogul played, he could either make or break a casino’s profits for the entire year. But he wasn’t always breaking casinos, which is why many establishments allowed him to bet whatever he desired.
On one occasion,Packer reportedly lost $20 million while at the Bellagio Casino in Las Vegas. Another story had the billionaire dropping $19 million at the Ritz Club in Vegas. However, he also experienced plenty of success too such as the time he reportedly forced London’s Aspinalls Club to shut down after winning so much money in blackjack. Another time saw him winning somewhere between $24 and $33 million from the MGM Grand while playing both blackjack and baccarat. Amazingly, it’s said that Packer almost broke the MGM Grand, which resulted in the firing of several prominent employees who let him make huge bets.
Packer’s Blackjack Legacy
There is perhaps no blackjack player – nor gambler of any kind – who can boast of wins and losses the size of Kerry Packer’s. After all, few billionaires are big gamblers, much less to the extent that Packer was. He made blackjack bets worth $300,000 or more on a single hand, and never sulked after a multi-million dollar losing session.
It’s often been said of the Aussie that he played blackjack when he was bored, and he was bored quite often. Seeing as how he gambled so frequently, Packer was able to accumulate quite a collection of interesting stories. One of the most-told stories was when a Texas oil tycoon was mouthing off to him and said, “You know who I am partner? I’m worth $60 million!” Packer then pulled out a coin and said, “I’ll flip you for it.” As you can tell by this story, Kerry Packer was quite the spectacle at casinos, and it’s no reason why he became such a legend.

You boys are funny. You will spend time finding information.... and then simply ignore parts of it. I told you to look up the facts about Kerry Packer nearly breaking the MGM. You found it.... but seemed to want not to pay attention.

I never said the man did not lose. I DID say that his willingness to SENT IT IN at times was dangerous to the casino profits. He had similar "per visit" or "per session" limits with other casinos.

All I ever said was...... short term results vary from long term results. Even children would know this from playing a casino video game.

I am going to be out of this. Not worth the finger effort to post with you kids on this topic.

But.... remember (you won't agree) long term is what makes the casino guaranteed profits. Because large groups of people playing thousands of hours more closely approximates the computer results of the game.

However..... short term sessions is how the game is played by individuals. And yes, I know there have been players sit at the same table a couple days straight and fire away...... that play still does not approach the numbers from computer simulations. So short term results will be what will determine your wins and losses in real life.

Have a good one. Bye bye now.

 

[festeringZit]

You are probably right Motor. But "STREAKS" and "VARIANCE" are the same thing for this conversation. I just enjoy watching these kids make their points hiding behind math. The math is absolutely true, but does not contradict the fact that these short term circumstances occur.

And, by the way, "Big Chief Poopy Pants".... I used to think you were a powerful man...... now I see, that like so many, you are one of the boys. Your confusion comes about because...... if you ever played BJ for REAL BIG money...... the streaks would be in your britches.






You boys are funny. You will spend time finding information.... and then simply ignore parts of it. I told you to look up the facts about Kerry Packer nearly breaking the MGM. You found it.... but seemed to want not to pay attention.

I never said the man did not lose. I DID say that his willingness to SENT IT IN at times was dangerous to the casino profits. He had similar "per visit" or "per session" limits with other casinos.

All I ever said was...... short term results vary from long term results. Even children would know this from playing a casino video game.

I am going to be out of this. Not worth the finger effort to post with you kids on this topic.

But.... remember (you won't agree) long term is what makes the casino guaranteed profits. Because large groups of people playing thousands of hours more closely approximates the computer results of the game.

However..... short term sessions is how the game is played by individuals. And yes, I know there have been players sit at the same table a couple days straight and fire away...... that play still does not approach the numbers from computer simulations. So short term results will be what will determine your wins and losses in real life.

Have a good one. Bye bye now.

Packer,

No one is denying that streaks occur. No one is "hiding behind the math." The problem is, you only know about them after the fact. You have no way of knowing if the current hand is the beginning, middle or end of a current streak - or the beginning of a cold streak.

I'm asking you a serious and reasonable question: When you are playing your "streaks," how do you know that you are at the beginning, middle or end of a streak? If you press your bets into a so-called hot streak, how do you know the current hand isn't the first hand in a long cold streak? The answer is, you don't. Unless you are counting cards, the previous hands have NO effect on the current hand, NONE, ZIP, NADA - and it has absolutely NOTHING to do with long term vs. short term, or "hiding behind the math."

 

[packer2012]

All your points are valid Zit. I never said I am rich from playing "streaks" or whatever. These guys want to act like knowing the math is all that's important. Fact is, knowing the math never matters during the normal duration of table play. I have simply tried to state that if you are at the table you will see streaks occur. If the table seems on a "VARIANCE" against the players..... Then slow down or bail out. If you sit there counting on the long term math to equal out (hardheaded)..... You can get skinned to death before you know it. There are plenty of other opportunities available. Don't mean to disrespect the math....... just recognize it only adds up after millions of hands.

 

[Cyyyyk]

If the table seems on a "VARIANCE" against the players..... Then slow down or bail out.

You keep saying you get it but then you keep saying something like this. It is actually so remarkably simple and you seem like a smart guy so I honestly dont really get how you don't see it.

 

[Illini]

All your points are valid Zit. I never said I am rich from playing "streaks" or whatever. These guys want to act like knowing the math is all that's important. Fact is, knowing the math never matters during the normal duration of table play. I have simply tried to state that if you are at the table you will see streaks occur. If the table seems on a "VARIANCE" against the players..... Then slow down or bail out. If you sit there counting on the long term math to equal out (hardheaded)..... You can get skinned to death before you know it. There are plenty of other opportunities available. Don't mean to disrespect the math....... just recognize it only adds up after millions of hands.

You clearly don't understand what +EV, -EV, and variance really mean.

 

[EverFresh]

Don't mean to disrespect the math....... just recognize it only adds up after millions of hands.

Pack, love you man but this quote of yours makes no sense whatsoever. The odds are the odds in a given deck or decks of cards given certain rules. +Ev is not -Ev on the first hand or the billionth hand. Math doesn't "kick in" at hand number 1,232,987,923 or whatever.

There's a reason the casinos encourage players to track outcomes on a special card in Baccarat, and the reason isn't that it gives the player any kind of advantage over the house,...

 

[MotorCityMadman]

I have found the answer for packer. The HOT STREAK METHOD. be able to use it in today's casinos which have shrewdly made card counting a lost art? So forget card counting and invest $14.95 in a winning game plan that is realistic, easy to learn, and low risk with great potential.
http://www.blackjacksuccess.net/


You can also forget about casino recommended flat betting since it does not take advantage of hot streaks nor lessen the effects of cold streaks. This is the heart of Hot Streak Blackjack Strategy and can be explained with three scenarios in which you play ten hands...the first has you losing all ten, the second winning all ten, and the third alternating wins and losses five times. The table minimum is $10 and the initial bet $25. So your bet will be $25 each hand if you are flat betting...but assume a $5 betting change after each hand with the streak method.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

A system for packer to ID the HOT STREAKS. Only $14.95. Give it a try and let us know how it turns out. A small investment to prove your point.

 

[packer2012]

As I said recently don't have the energy (or the desire) to rehash this with you boys. I never said that the math is not accurate. Just said it applies strictly in the "long run". This because the calculations done by computer to prove it were as a result of millions of hands.

And Ever..... I never said "Math doesn't "kick in" at hand number 1,232,987,923 or whatever". Just said the math is not always reliable in short term time frames. For this discussion "short term" could mean many , many hours..... long term could mean thousands of hours. The math is always there, but as cards play out the calculations more approximate the established % as you play longer and longer. Surely you agree with that?

Problem with discussions with you boys is you look for one word to argue over and ignore the fact that I am many times agreeing with you. Also, you boys keep making references to other casino games, which don’t apply. All of them are far more akin to a slot machine than a blackjack table.
To close….. I don’t need someone’s “toutlike” system to prove to me that variance (streaks) exist. Everyone who has spent time playing blackjack has already agreed that this stuff happens “in the short term”. Quite obvious to anyone ever at a table for a very few hours.

In summery….

Never said the math is not accurate

Never said start time, stop time, or duration of streaks was predictable

Never said “streaks” were a system. Only insist they happen. Inexperienced children or hardheaded math geeks are the only ones who resist the fact that they do.

 

[festeringZit]

As I said recently don't have the energy (or the desire) to rehash this with you boys. I never said that the math is not accurate. Just said it applies strictly in the "long run". This because the calculations done by computer to prove it were as a result of millions of hands.

And Ever..... I never said "Math doesn't "kick in" at hand number 1,232,987,923 or whatever". Just said the math is not always reliable in short term time frames. For this discussion "short term" could mean many , many hours..... long term could mean thousands of hours. The math is always there, but as cards play out the calculations more approximate the established % as you play longer and longer. Surely you agree with that?

Problem with discussions with you boys is you look for one word to argue over and ignore the fact that I am many times agreeing with you. Also, you boys keep making references to other casino games, which don’t apply. All of them are far more akin to a slot machine than a blackjack table.
To close….. I don’t need someone’s “toutlike” system to prove to me that variance (streaks) exist. Everyone who has spent time playing blackjack has already agreed that this stuff happens “in the short term”. Quite obvious to anyone ever at a table for a very few hours.

In summery….

Never said the math is not accurate

Never said start time, stop time, or duration of streaks was predictable

Never said “streaks” were a system. Only insist they happen. Inexperienced children or hardheaded math geeks are the only ones who resist the fact that they do.

Again, no one said there are no such thing as streaks. What I've said, and will continue to repeat, is that you can't take advantage of any "streak" because the previous hands have no bearing on the current hand. And, again it has NOTHING to do with short term vs. long term. And, your statement that "math is not always reliable in short term time frames" makes absolutely no sense.

 

[packer2012]

Does not make much sense from a math stand point. I don't disagree.

Ever spent much time at the blackjack table?

You guys ask "how many hands are enough to call it a "streak"? How about the question "How many hands until you predictably can apply the math." Certainly not reliable in 3 hands. How about 10? How about 100? No, not yet.... not really. How about 1,000 hands? See what I mean?

 

[packer2012]

Hey fellas..... Hope some of you guys notice this particular post.

Some of you may have read where I promised to stay completely out of Russ' posts going forward. Now he has gone to even posting "Special LARGE' plays ON ONE INNING PROPS in EXHIBITION GAMES. That is absolutely dumber than shit.... WIN or LOSE. Just childish yammerings of an attention seeker. So I am glad I am out of his threads. He has enough fun saying prayers and rooting his LOCKS in.

Similarly I am swearing out of the math discussions about casino play (especially blackjack). People refuse to realize the difference between proven computerized calculations over millions of hands....... and actual outcomes in "Human ass can tolerate length" sessions at the BJ table. I respect you guys and your levels of education (whatever that may be)........ but some things can be learned that CAN'T BE TAUGHT. Some day you will understand what that means. It applies in several areas of life..... but certainly in this area.
Best wishes, have at it, cut em to ribbons, whatever, and whatever.

 

[EverFresh]

People refuse to realize the difference between proven computerized calculations over millions of hands....... and actual outcomes in "Human ass can tolerate length" sessions at the BJ table

Pack, dude, you're talking about the same thing. The odds of winning a hand or a series of hands at BJ are the same on your first, 10th and 10 billionth hand. More play results in a truer trailing curve of the expected value of your particular wager. Nothing changes in a "computerized calculation over millions of hands" other than the curve comes closer to a -EV of (approx) 48.6% for the player.

I'm sorry man but we are going to keep at this until you truly understand the concept of EV.

Have a look here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

As homework I'd like you to calculate the expected value of a single hand of Blackjack with an 8 deck shoe, no doubling down and dealer hits on soft 17

We will take this up tomorrow

Thank you

Everfresh

 

[packer2012]

You lured me out for one more post Freshie.

First...... you don't assign me homework Little Man. Second and last...... Your words ....."The odds of winning a hand or a series of hands at BJ are the same on your first, 10th and 10 billionth hand. More play results in a truer trailing curve of the expected value of your particular wager."

Makes you feel so warm and fuzzy to say it that way. What that means is........ what happens short term (I said "what happens" not what is expected to happen) can be very "streaky" and temporarily may not much resemble the expected values. As you said "More play results in a truer trailing curve of the expected value"..... I rest my case.

Keep feeling so warm and fuzzy.... but don't forget to notice.... that meanwhile in the real world........ results vary all over the place in normal length table sessions.

Oh....... that can serve as your homework..... if you read and understand it.

Best wishes.

 

[Illini]

Packer, what is your lifetime figure at blackjack?

 

[festeringZit]

Packer, what is your lifetime figure at blackjack?

I would bet any amount of money that it's negative. No disrespect, but the amount of people who are in the black at blackjack who aren't counters is way less than 1%.

 

[festeringZit]

You lured me out for one more post Freshie.

First...... you don't assign me homework Little Man. Second and last...... Your words ....."The odds of winning a hand or a series of hands at BJ are the same on your first, 10th and 10 billionth hand. More play results in a truer trailing curve of the expected value of your particular wager."

Makes you feel so warm and fuzzy to say it that way. What that means is........ what happens short term (I said "what happens" not what is expected to happen) can be very "streaky" and temporarily may not much resemble the expected values. As you said "More play results in a truer trailing curve of the expected value"..... I rest my case.

Keep feeling so warm and fuzzy.... but don't forget to notice.... that meanwhile in the real world........ results vary all over the place in normal length table sessions.

Oh....... that can serve as your homework..... if you read and understand it.

Best wishes.

Packer, we're not disagreeing with you that the longer you play the more your results are going to trend towards the expected value. What we've been trying to beat you over the head with, is that your claim that you can somehow adjust your play to take advantage of streaks (i.e. a "hot" table). That is 100% WRONG.

 

[EverFresh]

As you said "More play results in a truer trailing curve of the expected value"..... I rest my case

And what's your "case" again? Trailing curve means looking in the rear view mirror. A streak is easy to identify…in the past,… Your argument seems to be that someone can identify a streak in the future and jump in and out of it at will. This is an illusion called the Gambler's Fallacy (Pack, we studied this in a previous lesson, go look at your notes)

How's the homework coming? Seems like you need some extra tutoring

GL man!

Everfresh