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Now, on to Friday's Free Picks, Write-ups and Spreadsheet:
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians
Game Date: 7/8/2011 - Game Time: 7:05 PM
Game Date: 7/8/2011 - Game Time: 7:05 PM
MLB MoneyLine Pick
Toronto Blue Jays +105
Pick Write-Up
ROT# 967 - 7:05pm - Toronto Blue Jays +105
2.0 units to win 2.10 units
Todays Spreadsheet can be viewed and downloaded at:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ao8CSVMd4slVdDF1VFY3R0N1d2hYYUZ5bG15a3R5M1E&hl=en_US
Jo Jo Reyes gets the start for Toronto. He is sporting a season ERA of 4.85, WHIP of 1.52 and BAA of .298. Not good numbers, but still better than his competition's Mitch Talbot. Lefties are batting .301 and Righties are batting .296 versus Reyes. Reyes has faced Cleveland once in his career, earlier this season, lasting the entire game (the only time he has done that this season) allowing just 1 run through 9 innings of work; Toronto won that game 11-1. He has pitched better on the road at night, sporting a road ERA of 4.37, a night ERA of 4.07 and has lasted six innings in six of his ten starts. He has made five quality starts in his past seven starts and in his past three road starts he has allowed 22 hits/walks and 9 runs through 18 innings of work (4.50 ERA). He has an above average cut-fastball, with great velocity, which he throws about 39% of the time; then mixes in average (or slightly above) 4-seam fastball's, sliders and change-ups to make up the other 61% of his pitches. He is both very consistent and accurate with his pitches (all of which average between 64 and 66 percent strike rates) and has only allowed 30 walks compared to 60 strike-outs, through 95 innings of work this season, allowing 2 walks or less in eight of his past ten starts. He does give up a large quantity of singles, however, therefore struggling at times versus teams who hit lefties well. While I don't expect an ace of a start from Reyes, I do believe he'll put up decent numbers and last 6 innings of work allowing 7 hits, 2 walks and 3 runs (approximately).
Mitch Talbot will get the start for Cleveland tonight. He is sporting a season ERA of 5.60, WHIP of 1.74 and BAA of .326. Lefties are batting .389 versus Talbot (which three of Toronto's top six batters are) and .262 versus Righties. He has pitched worst at home with a 6.86 ERA, 2.19 WHIP and .379 BAA in four home starts. He allowed just two combined runs through his first two starts, but then suffered an injury which kept him out for almost 50 days. Since his return, he has made eight starts lasting an average of 5 innings per start and allowing 4.0 runs per starts (41 innings, 31 runs) sporting a 1.73 WHIP over this time; many believe that something is not right. He has allowed 18 runs in his last 19 innings of work (past four starts) posting a 1.95 WHIP. He has lasted 6+ innings in just four of his past ten starts and in just one of his past five starts. Over his past six starts, Talbot has gone 0-4 with a 6.39 ERA, allowing an opponents' batting average of .316 over that span. Across that stretch, Talbot has allowed 42 hits, including eight home runs, in 31 innings pitched. Sixty-one percent (20) of the 33 runs Talbot has relinquished this season have come within the first three innings of his starts. In the first inning, the righty has given up 12 runs, which represents 36 percent of his total runs surrendered. "He usually struggles very early," Cleveland Manager Acta said. "Once he gets through a lineup one time around, he gets in a pretty good rhythm and gives us a pretty good outing. But when he struggles early, he usually puts himself and our club behind the eight ball." One of the main reasons for these early struggles is the fact that 60% of his pitches are his 2-seam fastball with a below average velocity, allowing teams to jump on it early and often; as he has struggled to get the ball down in the first few innings. In 2010, he threw the 2-seam fastball just 45% of the time and the velocity was better as well, but he has struggled since coming off the DL in 2011. His Change-up has also been below average this year and has had an average cut-fastball as well as average slider. He is not nearly as accurate with his pitches as Jo-Jo Reyes. Both of his fastballs are finding the strike zone LESS than 60% of the time and his two off-speed pitches about 63% (all of Reyes pitches have been more accurate); resulting in 2+ walks in 9 of Talbot's 10 starts this season. Toronto loves primarily fastball hitters, as they boast plenty of power and Talbot is the exactly that (a low- velocity pitcher that throws 75% fastballs and 25% off-sped). With the early power in the Blue Jays line-up and with their 1-5 guys being some of the best in the Major Leagues, I expect Talbot to struggle early on, once again, tonight.
Both offenses have been performing well as of late, however Cleveland has not performed well versus lefties both YTD and as of late. Cleveland is batting just .235 versus lefties at home and .215 in their past ten starts. Cleveland has just two active players who have batting averages above .265 while Toronto has four (all of which have batting averages above .294). Cleveland has had a batting average below .230 in four of their past six starts, as a team, while Toronto has had a batting average above .280 in four of their past six starts and have only had a batting average below .240 in one of their past six.
Both bullpens are fairly similar as well, but I expect Toronto to bounce-back from an awful showing and blown save effort last night. Toronto was winning 4-0 entering the bottom of the 9th inning, but Cleveland pulled off a miraculous come-back to defeat the Blue Jays and I don't see them accomplishing this two nights in a row. The Blue Jays should have the lead early, but this time I believe they'll hold on.
Final Analysis:
Well this is the perfect type of match-up. I'd give the advantage to Toronto for starter, bullpen, hitting, power, speed, defense and bench - but Cleveland has the public perception of being better than Toronto (because of Cleveland's 47-39 record and Toronto's 42-47 record) therefore presenting us value on Toronto at +105, especially after that bullpen collapse last night. Keep in mind that Cleveland started the season 30-15 and, despite their success these past ten games, they have been 17-24 (41%) since that run. Cleveland struggles versus lefties while Talbot is the type of pitcher Toronto batters love to face and should do early damage versus. Talbot's velocity is down, his pitches are not as accurate as last year's and I believe this has a lot to do with the injury he suffered early on. While Cleveland is 35-27 versus Righties this season, they are just 12-12 versus lefties and I like lefty Jo-Jo Reyes and these Toronto bats to get it done tonight!
Final Prediction:
Toronto 6 - Cleveland 4
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Game Date: 7/8/2011 - Game Time: 8:10 PM
Game Date: 7/8/2011 - Game Time: 8:10 PM
MLB Total Pick
Over 9.5 (-110)
Pick Write-Up
ROT# 977 - 8:10pm - Detroit/Kansas City over 9.5 -110
2.5 units to win 2.27 units
Todays Spreadsheet can be viewed and downloaded at:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ao8CSVMd4slVdDF1VFY3R0N1d2hYYUZ5bG15a3R5M1E&hl=en_US
Detroit and Kansas City meet-up tonight for game two of a three game series between these division rivals.
Rick Pocello gets the start for Detroit, sporting a season ERA of 4.96, WHIP of 1.46 and BAA of .290 (through 16 starts). Kyle Davies gets the start for Kansas City, sporting a season ERA of 7.77, WHIP of 1.91 and BAA of .351 (through 10 starts).
Porcello has an ERA of 5.67 over his past ten starts, allowing 34 runs through 54 innings of work. In his four most recent starts, he has allowed 21 runs and 38 hits/walks in 18 innings, for an ERA of 10.5 and 2.11 WHIP. He had only one decent start, in which he made it out of the 4th inning, being his most recent start versus the injury plagued and offensively drained San Francisco Giants; Porcello pitched seven innings, allowing just 5 hits and 2 walks - but three runs. He was wild, though, hitting three batters and throwing three wild pitches. Porcello has allowed 6 hits in 7 of his past 8 starts. Righties are batting just .237 versus him, while Lefties are batting .329 (Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera, Chris Getz, Wilson Betemit, Eric Hosmer and Brayan Pena can all bat left-handed for Kansas City). Many believe that Porcello is harvesting a shoulder injury that he possibly suffered on a diving attempt versus Minnesota, six games ago. Whether that's true or not - I don't know. What I do know is that Porcello is sporting an 8.53 ERA the past 30 days. He has a 2-seam fastball that makes up about 41% of his pitches, a 4-seam fastball that makes up 26% of his pitches (so 67% of his pitches are fastballs) and then a slider and change-up that make up the other 33% of his pitches. He has had below average velocity on every one of his pitches, allowing more than 25% of the batter's he has faced to either a single or walk (almost 10% to double, triple or homerun). Because of his low velocity, it is has been much easier for him to be consistent with his pitches and has been pretty accurate with most of his pitches but does struggle due to that low velocity. Porcello has faced these Kansas City batters 90 times and has allowed 26 hits and 6 walks (a .289 BAA).
Kyle Davies has allowed 38 runs in ten starts this season, through 44 innings of work, averaging just 4.4 innings per start, and has allowed 65 hits/19 walked batters. He has lasted 6+ innings in just three starts, and has allowed 3+ runs in 7 starts. How he is still a starter in the MLB, is beyond me, sporting a 5.62 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .288 BAA through seven seasons, in his MLB career. He was pulled from a start versus Cleveland, with an injury, after allowing 3 walks, 2 runs and two wild pitches in less than 1 inning of work; getting just one batter out, on May 16th. In his first start after seven weeks on the DL, Davies didn't show the same sharpness he'd had in Minor League rehab starts. Against the Rockies last Saturday, he had trouble keeping his pitches down and gave up seven runs in three innings (8 hits and 2 walks). Lefties are batting .368 versus Davies, while Righties are batting .329 this season. Kyle Davies has a four-seam fastball that makes up 48% of his pitches, a cut fastball that makes up 21% of his pitches (so 69% of his pitches are fastball's that have slightly below average velocities), a curveball and change-up make up the other 31% of his pitches with average velocities. His cut-fastball and change-up both have respectable strike-rates of 62% to 63%, but his four-seam fastball and curveball are both 54-55%. 27% of the batters he faces have singled or walked, while a very high 12% have hit for extra bases (double, triple, home run) .Kyle Davies has faced these Detroit batters a very high amount of times, 178, allowing 60 hits, 9 homeruns, 23 extra-base hits and 22 walks; allowing 31 runs in 40 innings of work for a career 6.98 ERA versus Detroit.
Detroit has the 8th top scoring offense in the Major Leagues (of 30 teams) averaging 4.49 runs per game while Kansas City has the 9th top scoring offense in the Major Leagues averaging 4.35 runs per game. Detroit will get Brennan Boesch returning to their offense tonight, batting .307 through 300 at-bats this season with a hit in 9 of his past ten appearances (he was pulled after 2 at-bats in his last game with no hits); batting .383 during this time, with 13 hits - two of them being doubles and two of them being homeruns. Boesch has a 3-10 career versus Davies (300 batting average), with two doubles. He is not the only player with career success versus Davies, as you can see by this chart:
*the forum won't allow me to post the chart, but it is available on my website*
Kansas City has been on a bit of a tear as of late, offensively, scoring 4+ runs in five of their past six starts; scoring 36 runs and averaging 6.0 runs per start. They have hit, as a team, above .245 in all six of these starts. Versus Porcello, they have a career batting average of .289.
Detroit's bullpen has been struggling all year, posting a 3.89 ERA and 1.41 WHIP; lately they've been even worst with a 4.82 ERA and 1.58 WHIP through their past 30 innings of work. Kansas City's bullpen has been very good this year, but they too have struggled as of late posting a 4.73 ERA and 1.51 WHIP through their past 30 innings of work. Not one Kansas City starter has lasted longer than 6.0 innings in their past eight starts, resulting in lots of action from the bullpen, which means that some of the key bullpen players (due to MLB rules) will not be in action tonight if needed. The players who are available, have posted a 5.72 ERA and 1.62 WHIP through their past 28 innings of work - so if Davies can't go far, like you'd assume, a depleted struggling bullpen will be called to action.
Final Analysis
It is a high total, in 9.5, but everything to me - still points to the over in this game. I am confident if the total runs are 7-9 entering the final few innings, we will still get the needed run support to blow this score over the total, but I don't expect we'll need it. I could see the score being 5-4 after the 6th inning and 7-5 by the end of the game.
Final Prediction
Detroit 7 - Kansas City 5
