Pinnacle/Square

[jwunderdog]

Everyone knows what I think of pinnacle so you can probably figure out where I am coming from.

I have found an extremely square book that consistently is paying me anywhere between $5 and $10 more for taking the dogs in baseball compared to pinnacles lines. Would you blindly bet all the dogs that there is at least a $4.00 better payout with this square book? Do you think I would be shortening the odds enough to make money over the entire season?

[This message was edited by jwunderdog on 04-09-03 at 08:25 AM.]

 

no

 

Think you can if you do "half scalps" with the other book.

Short form, when Pinnacle's favorite price added to the other book's dog price is positive.

Just play the dog book then.

 

[jwunderdog]

I was thinking the same thing peep. Anybody have any stats on last year as to much money you would have lost if you bet on every dog?

 

[Tekari]

did underdogs do historically bad last baseball season or something?

 

Might be buried in "Handicapping Zone". I did take a look at it in some depth. I don't think the dog had an edge though.

And there was a problem in that the lines weren't adjusted, we had "+160" and "-160" as I remember.

I know whenever I scalp (or middle) I lose at Pinnacle. That is why I think it should work. Even at worst, you should simple show half of what you would normally profit.

 

[jwunderdog]

Peep, I think I may try it, I just want to make sure we are writing about the same thing, yesterday pinnacle was hanging Houston -230 and I had a book that had Cincinnati +230, when you post take a half scalp you are talking about just betting the Cinn +230 and leaving the other half alone?

 

As an example, Pinnacle has KC -118 and the other book has Det +126. I think what Peep is saying you take the -118 and add it to the +126, if the number is positive (+8) than play the +126. Just like a scalp but you only take one side, the dog. Is that what you are talking about Jdog? If so I think he is suggesting to wait until there is a + number before you play it when you compare the numbers. Not just play every dog on the sheet that has a better number than Pinnacle's dog number. The numbers have to have scalp potential though you only end up half scalping it, hope that makes sense.

I have some data base stuff but not sure I could make a check of this since I don't have the exact numbers for the last 10 years. BTW do you want to say which book it is? I believe I know which one it is. Make sure you are going to get paid too by the "other" book. Anyway sorry for butting in, I may not understand what you are asking.

 

BTW I would not do this personally. I know what you are doing, giving Pinnacle credit for having a strong number but this is a lot of exposure. I would look in to some opinionated scalps tilted towards the dog side but not leave all that hanging out there every day.

We are all different, just my thoughts.

 

[jwunderdog]

Patrick, Please any input is helpful. I don't capp baseball so I have a little time to play with some of these #s verses capping the games. By the way I like your KC play today.

 

Yeah, that is exactly what I am saying Patrick.

I goofed with it a bit last year, $50 bets, think I made a few bucks but then got side tracked.

Interestingly the other way around was fine too. Times Pinnacle "liked" the dog (up to a scalpable number, "plus"), I was fine betting the favorite elsewhere.

They were sharp last year. I do not think they will be as sharp this year.

We shall see.

 

Okay good, I was half awake when I posted that. Peep anything in particular makes you think the numbers won't be as sharp this year?

Jdog - careful with having the same side that I have, LOL. Starting out almost 5 units down this year already. Seems it takes a while to make the proper adjustments, hope that is all that it is....

 

[jwunderdog]

Patrick, There are two different opinions on when to follow a good Capper a lot feel the best time to follow is when they are hot. I come from the other side believing the best time to follow a good capper is when they have just lost. I have had much better luck with following a good capper after a bad day then vice-versa. Realize I only bet serious money on College Football and College basketball all the rest is for shitts&giggles.By the way Patrick there is only one thing more consistent then a good handicapper and thats a bad one, the bad one's are just harder to find because they keep changing their names.

 

Yes there is Patrick.

Unfortunately, not allowed to say what. I would just keep an eye out.

Good question though.

 

And your point PEEP ?


HAHAHAHA
HH

 

Sorry to go over your head again Henhouse.

Will try and dumb down for you in another thread buddy, I am sure it is hard when you do not understand.....

 

[jwunderdog]

Thanks for KC yesterday Patrick. Peep who is the linesmaker at Pinnacle?

 

I think Pinnacle has a group effort of sorts, they do a lot of sports, and a lot of strange sports. Wouldn't hurt to have specialists if you plan to shade.

Don't know names presently, not my business to give out if I did. I did not think their NBA has been as sharp the last few months, but that is only a personal opinion. I am watching their baseball with interest, I think it will take at least a month to sort through.

Any time period less than a month is certainly "shit happens" territory.....

 

[jwunderdog]

Peep, No offense but why would it be such a secret as to who the linemaker is? hell have the linemakers in the world write articles. No biggy though just curious.

 

I don't know who it is, don't really care.

Either he can post a good number, shade the right way, or he can't.

I personally think their numbers are not as sharp of late, and that they have had some changes in their line-making style. In my mind linemakers are a little like artists, each one has his own style.

Do you think Pinnacle's numbers have been as sharp of late? Just curious...