PGA Tour best bets for the Honda Classic ⛳

[HacheMan]

PGA Tour best bets for the Honda Classic​

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The PGA Tour heads to Florida this week for the 2022 Honda Classic from PGA National Resort in Palm Beach Gardens.

2020 champion Sungjae Im returns to the Sunshine State, along with last weekend's Genesis Invitational winner Joaquin Niemann and Daniel Berger, who both went to Florida State.

Which players are the favorites this time around? Who offers good odds? And what props are worthwhile?

Betting analysts Chris Fallica and Tyler Fulghum and sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, who hit three top 10s and a top 20 in this column last week, offer their best bets.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

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Bets to win​

Daniel Berger​

Marks' picks: To win (16-1); top American (+800)



Berger's back injury is concerning, but in Phoenix he said it was feeling better, and he has had a few weeks to heal. PGA National is a track where Berger should dominate. He is first in ball striking his last 24 starts and is a native Floridian. If healthy, can go low here all four days and win.

Sungjae Im​

Bearman's picks: To win (12-1); top-10 finish (+163)

The entire golf betting world knows Im does well in Florida. I knew his odds were going to be super low, and I was looking for reasons to not write him up in the column. However, the metrics and stats are just too good to ignore. The 2020 champion, whose title defense ended with a T-8 last year, simply loves the Florida courses, is in great form and has the metrics that match one of the toughest non-major courses on tour.

When you hit the trifecta of course/area history, form and metrics, you fire away. As noted, he has back-to-back top-10s with a win at PGA National. In 10 PGA Tour events in Florida, Im has finished in the top 30 in eight of them, made the cut in nine of them and has finished in the top-10 in five (half) of the events. With water everywhere and winds often a factor, PGA National demands a great approach game to undulating greens and a good ability to scramble if you miss those greens. Im is 11th on tour in hitting greens, second in shots gained on around the greens and second in scrambling. Overall, he is fourth in shots gained total and seventh tee-to-green. He already won on tour this year back in October and has three top-11 finishes in five starts this calendar year.

You won't find any other player with the perfect metrics and course history, but if 12-1 is too short for you, +140 to finish in the top-10 seems like a lock and maybe even a +270 play for top-5 finish.

Billy Horschel​

Bearman's picks: To win (22-1); top-10 finish (+230)

The University of Florida grad and Florida native returns to a state that has brought him success over the years, and he is coming off a pretty good West Coast swing. Horschel, who historically plays better in Florida than out west, went T-23, T-36, T-11 and T-6 across the Hawaiian and Pacific time zones. Overall, he has made the cut in 19 of his last 20 events, only missing at last year's U.S. Open. As far as the Honda Classic, he had back-to-back top 10s in 2016 and 2017 and a T-16 two years ago here. He's 13th in shots gained around the green and is 16th in the important scrambling metric.

Louis Oosthuizen​

Fallica's picks: To win (22-1); top-10 finish (+190)

Oosthuizen has been off since Arizona and hasn't finished better than T-24th here, but his overall game -- 14th this year in strokes gained tee-to-green and bolstered by always strong iron play -- should have him in the mix in an event where the winner may not reach -10.

Fulghum's pick: To win (22-1)

This is amazing value for one of the best overall players in the field. For reference, he is 16-1 on DraftKings, so this is an example of why it's a good idea to shop around.

Tommy Fleetwood​

Bearman's picks: To win (28-1); top-10 finish (+250)

Little by little, those playing overseas during the early part of the year on the DP World (European Tour) are making their 2022 PGA Tour debuts. Fleetwood is next up, having last been seen on the PGA Tour in October. Meanwhile, he has recorded three top-15 finishes overseas, including a T-12 last month in Dubai. He has played PGA National twice, with great success, finishing third in 2020 and fourth in 2018. His success isn't just limited to West Palm. Fleetwood has three top-10s at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and two top 7s at the Players Championship, all within the last five years, showing that he loves playing the Florida swing. He has one of the better ball-striking iron games around, so this course fits him well. The price varies a lot on Fleetwood from book to book, so make sure you get the best one.

Fulghum's pick: To win (28-1)

Fleetwood is 14-1 on DraftKings, so, like Oosthuizen, you are getting extraordinary value here. He is one of the best overall players in the field, and to get him at this price is a steal.

Denny McCarthy​

Fallica's picks: To win (50-1); top-10 finish (+450)

This is far from the strongest field and it makes sense to fire on a few 50-1 or better shots this week. In a similarly weak field a few weeks back, we saw Tom Hoge win his first PGA Tour event, so let's see if we can throw a dart on a few prices. McCarthy is the first of them, as he's an excellent scrambler and that could be crucial on a course that has trouble all over. He may not be the longest hitter, but his ability to find a way out of trouble on a track he finished third at last year makes him an attractive option.

C.T. Pan​

Fallica's picks: to win (50-1), top-10 finish (+550)

Pan is coming off a top 10 at Riviera where he went sub-70 in both weekend rounds, and he finished in a tie for third here with McCarthy last year.

K.H. Lee​

Fallica's picks: To win (50-1); top-10 finish (+500)

Lee has been a solid cut-maker all year, missing just one -- in his first start of the season at Sanderson Farms. Assume he makes the weekend in a mediocre field and he could find himself in top-10 contention Sunday. He was seventh here in 2019. He might not be the worst stab for first-round leader either, as in his last six events he has gone 72-65 (first)-64 (third)-69-72-62 in the first round.

Chris Kirk​

Fallica's picks: To win (60-1); top-10 finish (+550)

Kirk is a regular here (11th event) and finished T-12th in 2014. Last year he posted his best finish since then (T-25th), and his play on approach has been quite good lately. It showed in Phoenix, as he posted his best finish of the year (T-14).

 

[HacheMan]

Props​

Sungjae Im​

Marks' picks: Top-5 finish (+270); R1 3 Ball (+125) over Lucas Herbert and Louis Oosthuizen

Im won here in 2020 and loves the Florida swing. Ranked second in strokes gained tee-to-green in his last 50 rounds, if he putted better on Bermuda greens I'd feel more confident in him winning this week.

Keith Mitchell​

Bearman's pick: Top-10 finish (3-1)

I considered playing Mitchell at 33-1 to win and still might by Thursday, but for now I am going to play the 3-1 in the top-10 market, which remains my favorite market to bet on a weekly basis. Mitchell's lone PGA Tour win was right here three years ago, as he outlasted Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler. Mitchell had a great West Coast swing, with a T-10 in Phoenix, T-12 at Pebble and T-7 in Hawaii, just missing the cut at Torrey Pines. He's 15th in tee-to-green, 16th in total shots gained, third off the tee and 34th in scrambling. My only hesitation and why I am playing top-10 and not outright is the 2019 win was the only time he played well at PGA National; he missed the cut twice and finished T-53rd last year after a 74-71 weekend. His current form is more than capable of a second Honda win.

Marks' pick: Top-10 finish (3-1); Round 1 matchup (-120) over Matthew Wolff

Mitchell has won here before in 2019. He is in great form -- sporting three top 15 finishes this season, and plays his best golf in the southeast on Bermuda greens. He ranks 3rd in strokes gained Off-the-Tee this season.

Daniel Berger​

Bearman's pick: Top-20 finish (-120)

Outside of Im, there may be no other golfer more perfect for this course than Berger, who, like Horschel, went to college in the state and lives there. Berger was runner-up in 2015 and finished T-4 in 2020, before having to miss last year's event due to injury. He withdrew from a title defense at Pebble a few weeks back and missed the cut two weeks ago in Scottsdale, and that's why he is down in the top-20 props section and not at the top with the outrights. We aren't sure what we are getting for four rounds of golf, but even with the injuries he is first on tour in scrambling, 10th tee-to-green and seventh around the green, all recipes for success at PGA National. I just don't trust his injury status but also don't want to leave him off the card completely. If healthy, I'll be kicking myself for not playing the 16-1 as he walks off with the trophy on Sunday, but he also could be limping off on Friday on the way home.

Shane Lowry​

Bearman's pick: Top-20 finish (+150)

Lowry is another solid player we haven't seen much of outside of the European Tour. Lowry lives locally in Jupiter, Florida and has never missed a cut here in four appearances. He has been playing solid golf overseas with a top-25 in all five events, including two top 10s. With a below average field, Lowry should be able to finish in the top 20 and pay off a prop for us.

Fallica's pick: Tourney matchup (-140) over Matthew Wolff

Wolff is the type of player who could go boom or bust this week. In his only trip here, he finished T-58. And while his distance could be an asset, I'd also be concerned at the lack of accuracy and poor scrambling stats. Lowry is 4-for-4 here making the cut, and I'll back the Jupiter resident in this matchup.

Brian Harman​

Marks' picks: 1st round leader (60-1); Round 1 matchup (-110) over Aaron Wise; Tourney matchup (-120) over Wise; Round 1 3 ball over Jimmy Walker and Martin Trainer

Harman is in good form. He finished T-14 in Phoenix, where he gained 3 strokes on approach. He putts better on Bermuda, and is T-5 in round 1 scoring average.

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Christiaan Bezuidenhout​

Fulghum's pick: Top-20 finish (+190)

Bezuidenhout is one of the best putters in the world on Bermuda grass greens. He has made 33 of his last 35 cuts worldwide.

Mito Pereira​

Bearman's picks: Top-20 finish (2-1); tourney matchup (-102) over Ryan Palmer

While doing a radio hit earlier in the week, I talked myself into throwing some coin on Pereira. He hasn't done as well as people expected him to do this season, with one top-20 finish since finishing third in the season-opening event in September, but if any course is one that he can strike hot on, it would be this one. Mito is 14th in shots gained approach, 18th shots gained total and has improved his putting of late. I worry about his negative shots gained around the green, which will cost him some shots this weekend, but fresh off a T-15 at Riviera, I think he can climb into the top 20 and beat Palmer this week. And who knows, maybe he makes it back-to-back wins for Chile.

Chris Kirk​

Fulghum's pick: Top-20 finish (+280)

Kirk has gained strokes tee-to-green in eight straight events, so he's in good form and has usually played well during his career on the Florida swing.\

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Lee Westwood​

Marks' picks: Top-40 finish (-125); Round 1 3 ball over Lee Hodges and Trey Mullinax

Westwood loves this track. He lived across the street and will have friends and family cheering him on. He has played well in the Middle East this season, and should be in the top 40 by the end of Sunday.

 

[HacheMan]

Props​

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Greyson Sigg​

Marks' pick: Top-40 finish (+110)

Sigg is a Georgia peach that plays well in Florida. He crushed it down south while on the Korn Ferry Tour, is striking the ball well, and putts better on Bermuda greens.

Nicolai Hojgaard​

Marks' pick: Top-40 finish (+120)

Hojgaard is having a tremendous season worldwide -- sporting 2 wins, and 11 top 20 finishes. Golfers will have to keep it in play this week, and he is ranked top 5 in strokes gained Off-the-Tee the last six months.

Brandon Hagy​

Marks' pick: Top-40 finish (+250)

This may be my favorite play of the weekend for the odds. Hagy has found success on this track (2nd last year, and two top 25s). He can go low -- shooting 64 and 62 here in the past.

Hayden Buckley​

Fulghum's pick: Top-40 finish (+190 at DraftKings)


Buckley may not be a name you are familiar with, but he's a Florida native who just graduated from the Korn Ferry Tour. The strength of his game matches up with the skills needed to excel on this difficult course. Buckley is top 30 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained on approach and bogey avoidance.

Gary Woodland​

Fallica's pick: Tourney matchup (-120) over Brendon Todd

Woodland is 8-for-8 in making the cut here with a pair of Top 10s, and while he's not in great form, the guy on the opposite end of this head-to-head has missed the cut in three of four appearances at the Honda, struggles to hit greens and is super reliant on the putter.

Alex Noren​

Marks' picks: Tourney matchup (-130) over Ian Poulter; top Continental European (+260)

Noren had a T-6 at the Phoenix Open, and gained three strokes on approach at the Genesis -- so he heads to Florida with some west coast swag. Noren putts better on Bermuda and his game sets up nicely at PGA National.

 

[HarryCaray]

Mito Pereira FTW

 

[Knightrofins]

Sungjae Im is the highest priced player on fan duel.

This is tournament is the longest sponsored tournament in the PGA (honda).

Been to this tourney a bunch of times (not in the last 20 years) as when it was in Broward Country, 2 of the courses was within 10 minutes of my home. Never created much buzz b/c usually Doral was the week before and Bay Hill was the following week

 

[Ricboff]

Mito Pereira FTW

back to back for Chile? what r the odds for that!!

wire to wire for Niemann included a 63-63 start. Basically turning Riviera into a local LA muni

in 2000 there was one player on tour that averaged 300 yrs--John Daly
in 2022 - there are like 100 players, 4 of which are averaging over 320 yds
to add-- in 1990 the longest player on tour was Purtzer-- 279 yds off the tee....that's a baby 3-wood nowadays


doesnt seem the tour is concerned,lol
They got to do something at Augusta , adding rough is sacrilegous Maybe turn the par 5 2nd into a long par 4. Read they r adding length to 11 and 18. Wierd re., 11 --its a tough hole as it is. cant touch 13, or 15-- awesome drama holes

N Hojgaard is a fuckin animal off the tee!..the dude hits it a mile, easy 320 off the tee. he will be a stable on euro ryder cup team if he continues to develop. interesting how he'll do here, not exactly a bombers track. 20 yrs old , 4 top 10's in his last 11 tourneys including 2 wins

good vibes for the ever struggling Fowler here, horses for courses? the guy has fallen off the map