PGA best bets for the WM Phoenix Open
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALThe PGA tour heads to Arizona this week for the 2022 WM Phoenix Open as some of the best golfers in the world compete TPC Scottsdale.
The tournament, historically has been a strong event on tour with a loaded field including last year's winner Brooks Koepka and top ten players like Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland to name a few.
Which players are the favorites this time around? Who offers good odds? And what props are worthwhile?
Betting analysts Chris Fallica, Anita Marks and sports betting deputy editor David Bearman offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Justin Thomas
Anita's picks: to win (12-1); top-5 finish (+280); top=10 finish (+138)
Thomas has three top 5 finishes this season, two top 3s and two top 20s here the last four years. This is a track and a tourney that suits his game! His iron game was on point at the Farmers -- gaining 1.3 shots on the greens -- and that is an important metric this week.
Hideki Matsuyama
Fallica's picks: to win (18-1), top-10 finish (+200)It's his first event since November, as he had a lower back injury. But that doesn't worry me, as Louis has one of the sweetest swings on tour and has done very well here, finishing T-11 last year and third in 2017.
Bearman's picks: to win (18-1), top-10 finish (+200)
It would've been hard not to like Matsuyama here if he was coming in cold, but he is the only two-time winner so far this season and this is one of his favorite courses. Matsuyama is the all-time money leader at this event with over $3.3 million in career earnings, has back-to-back wins in 2016 and 2017, a runner up, a T-4 and two additional top 20s. His worst finish in Scottsdale (besides his injury withdrawal) was a T-42 last season. Over the last 36 rounds at TPC Scottsdale, Matsuyama is tops in SG: total, tee-to-green, ball striking and approach. The current FedEx Cup leader has wins in two of his last four events (Zozo in October and the Sony Open last month) and is 11th on Tour in SG: tee-to-green. We all know his lone flaw, (183th in SG: putting), but that hasn't mattered on this track, as some of the poorest putters on tour have won here. The putting surface is over-seeded hybrid and is a step away from the bumpy Poa greens we see in California and Hawaii.
Viktor Hovland
Bearman's picks: to win (16-1), top-10 finish (+200)Let's start with a disclaimer ... the WMPO is big course history-type event, where players that do well here usually have done well here in the past or at other similar courses. Hovland has only played here once, two years ago, and missed the cut. But that is not going to deter me here, as Hovland is winning everywhere he plays. He won two weeks ago in Dubai, finished fourth the week before in Abu Dhabi and finished the 2021 calendar year with wins at Mayakoba and the Hero World Challenge. If I am going to pick one "outsider" to triumph at Scottsdale, it's going to be arguably the hottest golfer around. Hovland is 10th on your off-the-tee and 17th on approach, two stats that will play well here. As long as he doesn't become distracted by the crazy atmosphere, I expect the Norwegian to be right there in contention.
Webb Simpson
Bearman's picks: to win (35-1), top-20 finish (+163)Any course that is a ball-strikers course that needs nice, tight irons to greens, means play Simpson. He won two years ago, was runner-up in 2017 and has five top-10s in 11 starts. His form has not been great, as he only has one top 10 since last August, but this is the type of course where his game gets right. He also has a win at TPC Sawgrass, which is similar in setup to this course in Scottsdale.
Russell Henley
Bearman's picks: to win (40-1), top-20 finish (+163)When I handicap golf, I use a combo of course history, current form and course/player metrics. Entering this event, Henley has them all. He's fourth on tour in tee-to-green, second on approach and seventh total. He finished runner-up at the Sony in January and T-14th at the Amex. His numbers here at Scottsdale aren't as good as others I played, but he does have a couple of top-20s in the last few years.
Louis Oosthuizen
Fallica's picks: to win (40-1), top-10 finish (25-1)It's his first event since November, as he had a lower back injury. But that doesn't worry me, as Louis has one of the sweetest swings on tour and has done very well here, finishing T-11 last year and third in 2017.
Brendan Steele
Bearman's pick: to win (150-1)Since I took last week off in the column, I owed everyone a boom or bust long shot. I spent some time digging and decided on Steele. His recent form won't wow you (he is 150-1 for a reason) with back-to-back missed cuts in Hawaii and at the Amex, but it was only five starts ago that he finished runner-up at the Zozo. But that's not why I am taking him. If you get by his T-30-MC-MC of the last three years here, you'll see a T-3 in 2018 that capped a run of seven consecutive top-26 finishes, including three straight top-6s in 2012-14. Two of his three career wins have come at Silverado, a desert course relatable to TPC Scottsdale. In the last 36 holes here, Steele is fifth in SG: total, sixth in tee-to-green and fourth in ball striking. Good numbers for a 150-1 shot.
Andrew Putnam
Fallica's picks: to win (700-1), top-10 finish (70-1)He's getting close. After a top-15 finish two weeks ago, Putnam was in the mix Sunday at Pebble before finishing T-6. He finished T-7 here last year, and his short game should give him a nice chance at another solid week.
