Percentages and Line Movements show nothing

[letsgohoosiers]

And Hoosiers, those games you posted are wins/losses with the teams that you have stated. RLM would be going against the posted team. The line was moving to indicate sharp action on the other team. So that would be 4-3 and add the Auburn game we are at 5-3. So WOO HOO you are wrong again. So lets learn how it works as well before you bash it. Maybe your numbers at the top are completely wrong, rework them and see where your at then.

Made it fairly clear in my other post that 1) I am taking the lines on Sports Insights for the opening and closing lines from Pinnacle as it is the most efficient way to track this, and 2) The record for fading was 4-3. Don't know where you're missing this.

Auburn opened and closed at +3 and had 19% of the public bets according to Sports Insights tracking on 12/24.

Hope you're all cashing your tickets on Oklahoma State! :lol:

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Reverse Line Movements

1/26 Record: 2-1
Overall record: 23-27 (46%)

Games where the line moved 2.5 points towards the team with less action went 0-2.
Games where the line moved 2.0 points towards the team with less action went 2-0.
Games where the line moved 1.5 points towards the team with less action went 3-3.
Games where the line moved 1.0 points towards the team with less action went 8-8.
Games where the line moved 0.5 points towards the team with less action went 10-14.

Fading the public

Teams with 20% or less of the public on them are 6-8.
Teams with 21-30% of the public on them are 15-22-2.
Teams with 31-40% of the public on them are 14-18-1.

1/26 record: 3-2
Overall record: 35-48-3 (42%)

 

[letsgohoosiers]

WHere is the Arkansas/Auburn game???? Arkansas opened up at -5 and went off at -3.5 with almost 80% on Arkansas, Auburn blew them out. If your going to post stats lets get ALL of them. Plus thats only one sportsbook as well....this needs to be an overwhelming line move, not just at one book

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college...-movement/auburn-@-arkansas.cfm/date/01-24-09

Auburn closed at +3.

 

[MetsFan44]

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college...-movement/auburn-@-arkansas.cfm/date/01-24-09

Auburn closed at +3.

The link you just provided, shows at Pinnacle the line opened at Arkansas -4.5 and closed -3 with 81% of money on Arkansas. That is a true RLM and the wager would have been made on Auburn. A wager that would have won along with the other games that I had posted. Totals still qualify as line movements too, there is a line on those as well. I never said that I was Hogs, I mentioned that I helped post in his thread. What are you missing. Record for fading was not 4-3. Fading would be going with the team with 70% or more of the action. Those were 3-4 as posted earlier by you:

24-Jan 80 595*St Joseph's 12569 89% -9.5 -8.5 -1 WIN
24-Jan 85 669*Tennessee Chat 2867 85% -3.5 -2.5 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 63 663*Coll Charleston 3224 80% -6 -5 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 67 657*Utah State 9692 75% -9 -8 -1 WIN
24-Jan 53 561*Western Michigan 1956 74% -4 -3 -1 WIN
24-Jan 67 630*Texas 14826 70% -13 -12 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 86 684*Austin Peay 1442 71% -9.5 -8 -1.5 LOSS

These teams here had 70% or more of the action on them, the RLM play would be betting against them. Thats how RLM works and it would have been 4-3 and then throw in Auburn its 5-3. But with the more proven system of using more than just one book, not all of these games qualified as a play on Saturday.

You can use whatever lines you want and make up your own system but dont try and disprove someone elses system or posts if you arent going to use the same formula that they are using. Pay the $70 for sportsinsights and prove me wrong.

You dont seem to grasp what team to take with these RLM plays. There were no plays that qualified today where 70% of the public was on a team and the action went the other way. Only in the NBA with the Knicks, and they won outright as 1 point dogs at home.

 

[Marco]

Good thread, 'hoosiers.......I just wish I had a dollar for every moron that stepped into a thread after ten posters took the same team and muttered something stupid like "be careful, everybody is on that team".....or some other quip by some pants shitter that ignores the x's and o's of the playfield.

It's getting harder to find pragmatic, rationale people who look at a game and determine the pointspread winner by the matchups on the field as compared to the pointspread. Bettors would win much more by forgetting about "traps" and "too many people/touts/so-called sharps" and all the other bullshit "trends" people use as a crutch instead of handicapping the matchups between the people actually playing the game.

These same "too many people" crowd are the same ones who insist that after seeing a coin land three times on heads that tails is the side to bet on next, ignoring the fact that the coin has no memory and the next toss is still 50/50 odds. I'm glad I read most of John Scarne's books otherwise I'd be sucking up to some of the same superstitions that saturate these boards.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

The link you just provided, shows at Pinnacle the line opened at Arkansas -4.5 and closed -3 with 81% of money on Arkansas. That is a true RLM and the wager would have been made on Auburn. A wager that would have won along with the other games that I had posted. Totals still qualify as line movements too, there is a line on those as well. I never said that I was Hogs, I mentioned that I helped post in his thread. What are you missing. Record for fading was not 4-3. Fading would be going with the team with 70% or more of the action. Those were 3-4 as posted earlier by you:

24-Jan 80 595*St Joseph's 12569 89% -9.5 -8.5 -1 WIN
24-Jan 85 669*Tennessee Chat 2867 85% -3.5 -2.5 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 63 663*Coll Charleston 3224 80% -6 -5 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 67 657*Utah State 9692 75% -9 -8 -1 WIN
24-Jan 53 561*Western Michigan 1956 74% -4 -3 -1 WIN
24-Jan 67 630*Texas 14826 70% -13 -12 -1 LOSS
24-Jan 86 684*Austin Peay 1442 71% -9.5 -8 -1.5 LOSS

These teams here had 70% or more of the action on them, the RLM play would be betting against them. Thats how RLM works and it would have been 4-3 and then throw in Auburn its 5-3. But with the more proven system of using more than just one book, not all of these games qualified as a play on Saturday.

You can use whatever lines you want and make up your own system but dont try and disprove someone elses system or posts if you arent going to use the same formula that they are using. Pay the $70 for sportsinsights and prove me wrong.

You dont seem to grasp what team to take with these RLM plays. There were no plays that qualified today where 70% of the public was on a team and the action went the other way. Only in the NBA with the Knicks, and they won outright as 1 point dogs at home.

SportsInsights is showing Auburn opening at +3 on the sheet that was copied and pasted.

The posted W/L in my table is for the public plays. If you were to fade the public plays, you would take the reverse record. If I post a table and it shows 3-4, that means if you fade it's 4-3. How is this difficult to understand? You keep asking the same question and I've posted three times now that it's a 4-3 record for fading.

Reverse line movement: When a team is having the line move their way, and has the smaller percentage of bets on them. There were 3 plays today which that happened. Marquette (opened at +3, closed at +2.5, had 41%), Iona (opened at +10.5, closed at +10, had 34%), and Niagara (opened at -13, closed at -14, had 42%).

I am not "disproving" HogsFan8's system. His system and what I am tracking are different things. He has multiple qualifiers to get a very small sample size in plays (ignoring certain leagues, using multiple books, getting a certain percentage, moving a certain point, etc.). I am tracking overall line movements and public percentages.

I think (as others have stated in this thread) that people put too much emphasis on public percentages and line movements to talk themselves into playing games they wouldn't and not playing games they would. The point is (as the statistics have indicated) that you shouldn't take that into account.

And no, I'm not going to pay $70 for information that's not only mostly free, but information which I don't believe is important in placing a wager.

 

[MetsFan44]

Opening line at Pinnacle from your vegasinsiders link:

01/23 6:55pm ARK XX AUB XX ARK-4.5 -105 AUB+4.5 -105
01/23 7:16pm ARK XX AUB XX ARK-5 -105 AUB+5 -105

 

[MetsFan44]

Well when you start your thread with the statements that you made it basically sounds like your trying to disprove other peoples threads. Apologies if it was misinterpreted.

Regardless, we can agree to disagree here. I have made a significant amount of money using RLM the past few weeks and from the sounds of it after speaking with HogsFan8, using the 3 books and placing a requirement of 70% or more on one side with a full point movement on all 3 books has been very profitable the past few years. As for his other rules, those are his personal angles and have nothing to do with RLM, they are % plays.

If you go back and look at opening and closing lines the past several years where these exact rules apply to sides and totals the numbers are close to 60%, and thats using the closing line, where you generally want to make this play 30 mins before tip.

 

[jwunderdog]

The objective in Sports gambling is to have even money on each side. Do you disagree? Good that is what I thought. Vegas makes a great deal of money on the vig. You have to hit over 55% to cover the vig. That is only if you bet the same amount each game. Guess what? Never ever happens. Think back a bit on your past wagering experience. Have you ever been down 4 units and then bam I have one to make it up. Well, you miss and now your 55% needed wins just went to 70% to make up for the greed or desperation.

Peace

Not agreeing or disagreeing with the thread, but 55% is not correct for covering the vig.

 

[glcsports]

Hoosiers, the whole idea of reverse line movement is a majority of the public is on one side yet the line moves the opposite direction of the public's wager. That is a true RLM. Your stats above mean nothing, I have been betting RLM for awhile now and Saturday you are completely wrong with your documented stats. I had been contributing to HogsFan8's thread until he started adding a few more of his personal theories to it.

Here is Saturdays RLM results:

Memphis/Tenn Under Winner
Kentucky/Bama Under Winner
Elon U Winner
Towson Over Winner
Auburn Winner
Pennsylvania Loss
E. Michigan Loss

Thats 5-2 on Saturday with RLM with 70% of public on one side and the line had moved 1 full point in the opposite direction. 11-6 on the week. RLM works, not everyday but it works, there is a reason the Public loses on a consistant basis

Ankles, I totally agree. I have been following 60% with at least 1 point move across 3 books. Last week 46-30 (Last 12 days 67-46).
I'm making $$$$$ so all is good. If you want to compare notes or chat send me a PM.

arty:

 

[OutSmart]

90% of the games I bet on are RLM's. You win some, you lose some. It can be very streaky. All-in-all, it works fine. You're not gonna make tons on it, but you won't lose your ass either. I think it works well with overs.

 

[18677]

I agree that betting on RLM is a good investment in CBB. I think the only one that I bet last few weeks that lost was Missouri St +11.5 against Illionis St few weekends ago. There are always 1-3 games a day where the line movement don't seem right. Yesterday it was Iona +9.5 and today it seems like Eastern Kentucky -3 and Colorado -1 are the plays.

 

[Marco]

Not agreeing or disagreeing with the thread, but 55% is not correct for covering the vig.

52.35% winners needed to break even wagering at -110 odds.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Reverse Line Movements

1/27 Record: 2-4
Overall record: 25-31 (45%)

Games where the line moved 2.5 points towards the team with less action went 0-2.
Games where the line moved 2.0 points towards the team with less action went 2-0.
Games where the line moved 1.5 points towards the team with less action went 3-5.
Games where the line moved 1.0 points towards the team with less action went 9-9.
Games where the line moved 0.5 points towards the team with less action went 11-15.

Fading the public

1/27 record: 5-6-1
Overall record: 40-54-4 (43%)

Teams with 20% or less of the public on them are 7-8.
Teams with 21-30% of the public on them are 19-22-3.
Teams with 31-40% of the public on them are 14-24-1.

 

[kendog819]

52.35% winners needed to break even wagering at -110 odds.

You are a little off too..just a little bit though.

It's Actually .52380952380952308952308952308952

Or 52.38%

Very close though.

 

[18677]

Reverse Line Movements

1/27 Record: 2-4
Overall record: 25-31 (45%)

Games where the line moved 2.5 points towards the team with less action went 0-2.
Games where the line moved 2.0 points towards the team with less action went 2-0.
Games where the line moved 1.5 points towards the team with less action went 3-5.
Games where the line moved 1.0 points towards the team with less action went 9-9.
Games where the line moved 0.5 points towards the team with less action went 11-15.

Fading the public

1/27 record: 5-6-1
Overall record: 40-54-4 (43%)

Teams with 20% or less of the public on them are 7-8.
Teams with 21-30% of the public on them are 19-22-3.
Teams with 31-40% of the public on them are 14-24-1.

I'm not sure what parameters you use to qualify games as RLM but there were only two games, maybe three on Tuesday in my opinion. Eastern Kentucky opened at -2 and minutes later got bet up to -3 and closed at -2.5. Even though pregame showed that 85% were on the spread and 94% were on the moneyline for Austin Peay. Another game was Colorado. It opened at pick and minutes later got bet up to -1 and stayed at -1 all day. Even though all information showed that 72-78% bets were on Iowa St on the spread and the moneyline. Another play could have been Marshall due to the same reasoning.

For RLM to work, you have to know what the sharps are betting. Easy way you could do that is check Las Vegas Hilton when they release the games. In my opinion, they are the sharpest book in the world. In minutes of it's release, you'll see some games move half to two points. Sometimes totals will move up to 3 points. Also, just because 65+% are on a team but the line moves point or two the other way doesn't mean that the sharps are moving the line. Sharps will hit the games very very early and very late. Any movement in between, I wouldn't pay too much attention. Betting against the public or betting with the linemoves just because the line moves opposite of where majority of bets are on, won't make you money. To make money consistently, you have to be on the same side as the sharps. RLM is good tool, because it's one way to figure out where the sharp money is on.

GL

 

[letsgohoosiers]

I'm not sure what parameters you use to qualify games as RLM but there were only two games, maybe three on Tuesday in my opinion. Eastern Kentucky opened at -2 and minutes later got bet up to -3 and closed at -2.5. Even though pregame showed that 85% were on the spread and 94% were on the moneyline for Austin Peay. Another game was Colorado. It opened at pick and minutes later got bet up to -1 and stayed at -1 all day. Even though all information showed that 72-78% bets were on Iowa St on the spread and the moneyline. Another play could have been Marshall due to the same reasoning.

For RLM to work, you have to know what the sharps are betting. Easy way you could do that is check Las Vegas Hilton when they release the games. In my opinion, they are the sharpest book in the world. In minutes of it's release, you'll see some games move half to two points. Sometimes totals will move up to 3 points. Also, just because 65+% are on a team but the line moves point or two the other way doesn't mean that the sharps are moving the line. Sharps will hit the games very very early and very late. Any movement in between, I wouldn't pay too much attention. Betting against the public or betting with the linemoves just because the line moves opposite of where majority of bets are on, won't make you money. To make money consistently, you have to be on the same side as the sharps. RLM is good tool, because it's one way to figure out where the sharp money is on.

GL

The reverse line movement I am tracking is for the Pinnacle book, as it is the only free information that is available through Sports Insights. There were 6 games that qualified.

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 514px; height: 168px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 16pt;" width="21"> <col style="width: 114pt;" width="152"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="42"> <col style="width: 24pt;" width="32"> <col style="width: 30pt;" span="2" width="40"> <col style="width: 48pt;" span="2" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt; width: 16pt;" id="info" width="21" align="right" height="20">79</td> <td class="xl64" style="width: 114pt;" id="score" width="152">731 Marshall</td> <td class="xl64" style="width: 32pt;" id="team" width="42" align="right">13427</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 24pt;" id="bets" width="32" align="right">26%</td> <td class="xl64" style="width: 30pt;" id="oupct" width="40" align="right">8.5</td> <td class="xl64" style="width: 30pt;" width="40" align="right">8</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64" align="right">0.5</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="info" align="right" height="20">62</td> <td class="xl64" id="score">725 Indiana State</td> <td class="xl64" id="team" align="right">3659</td> <td class="xl65" id="bets" align="right">30%</td> <td class="xl64" id="oupct" align="right">16.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">15.5</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">71</td> <td class="xl64">712 Western Michigan</td> <td class="xl64" id="team" align="right">10140</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">35%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-1</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="info" align="right" height="20">62</td> <td class="xl64" id="score">723 Air Force</td> <td class="xl64" id="team" align="right">11157</td> <td class="xl65" id="bets" align="right">37%</td> <td class="xl64" id="oupct" align="right">9.5</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">8</td> <td align="right">1.5</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">67</td> <td class="xl64">722 Maryland</td> <td class="xl64" id="team" align="right">16608</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">40%</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-4</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">-4.5</td> <td align="right">0.5</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl64" style="height: 15pt;" id="info" align="right" height="20">46</td> <td class="xl64" id="score">715 Eastern Michigan</td> <td class="xl64" id="team" align="right">4240</td> <td class="xl65" id="bets" align="right">42%</td> <td class="xl64" id="oupct" align="right">15</td> <td class="xl64" align="right">13.5</td> <td align="right">1.5</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

 

[18677]

Okay, I see...I use pregame to check the percentages and vegasinsider for line moves at the Hilton. It's been working great for me over the years. So far I have Michigan +4, Charlotte +16, Loy-Chi +5, Missouri St +6, Evansville +7, Illinois St +2.5, Kansas St +3.5, and Old Dom +1 as a play but it'll usually gets narrow down to 1-3 plays.

Also, I noticed that Mil/Ind Over and Old Dom got hit really hard this morning at the Hilton.

GL today

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Reverse Line Movements

1/27 Record: 6-11
Overall record: 31-42 (42%)

Games where the line moved 2.5 points towards the team with less action went 0-2.
Games where the line moved 2.0 points towards the team with less action went 3-0.
Games where the line moved 1.5 points towards the team with less action went 3-6.
Games where the line moved 1.0 points towards the team with less action went 10-12.
Games where the line moved 0.5 points towards the team with less action went 15-22.

Fading the public

1/27 record: 10-20
Overall record: 50-74-4 (40%)

Teams with 20% or less of the public on them are 10-13.
Teams with 21-30% of the public on them are 26-32-3.
Teams with 31-40% of the public on them are 14-29-1.