Penn State vs. Oregon:
A lot of tickets hit the secondary market for the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis after Ohio State lost to Michigan. Columbus is just a couple hours away from Indy and Buckeye Nation plans ahead, assuming that Lucas Oil Stadium will be covered in Scarlet & Gray. Instead, Penn State now takes the place of Ohio State against Oregon, so it will be very interesting to see what the crowd looks like inside the home of the Colts.It is a huge opportunity for Penn State and also for James Franklin, but also a chance for Dan Lanning and Oregon to show Big Ten supremacy in their first season as a member of the conference. A bye in the College Football Playoff and some shiny Big Ten hardware are on the line on Saturday.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks (-3.5, 49.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ETPenn State had some difficulties during the regular season. They lost at home in a game that wasn’t as competitive as the 20-13 score against Ohio State would suggest and also had close calls on the road at USC and at Minnesota. Had Lincoln Riley not out-James-Franklin’d James Franklin in that game at the Coliseum, Indiana would be in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Alas, Penn State held the tiebreaker over the Hoosiers and plays in the title game for the first time since 2016, when Trace McSorley was the game’s MVP.
Oregon is the only undefeated team in college football and has wins over Boise State, Ohio State, and Illinois, to go along with a pretty dominant win at Michigan. The Ducks had one close call against Wisconsin aside from the one-point win over Ohio State and the three-point win over Boise State.
Statistically, Penn State is better in both yards per play on offense and defense. In Big Ten play, that is not true, as Oregon’s numbers are slightly better. What that all means in this standalone game is up for debate, but it is hard to ignore that Dillon Gabriel was 23-of-34 for 341 yards and two touchdowns against Ohio State. For good measure, he added a rushing score in the game that remains his season high in passing yards against a FBS opponent.
Drew Allar was 12-of-20 for 146 yards and an interception against the Buckeyes. I’m not sure that this game is as simple as that, a data point against a common opponent, but it sure does seem like Oregon’s best is decidedly better than Penn State’s best. The Nittany Lions do have the luxury of a two-headed monster at running back with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, but Allen has only mustered a long of 26 yards and has just 4.4 yards per carry. Down the stretch, Allen has just 64 yards on his last 26 carries.
Even Singleton doesn’t have a carry over 18 yards since Week 2 against Bowling Green and only has one on the season. Penn State will have to find its big plays through the air and do so against an Oregon defense that has only allowed nine passing touchdowns this season.
To their credit, Penn State’s defense has only allowed 11 passing touchdowns, as the teams rank seventh and eighth in total pass defense.
Aside from that, this is a game to me where Oregon just does everything a little bit better. And that includes the head coach. But, I do think this is a physical, slug-it-out type of game with limited explosive plays.
Pick: Oregon -3.5 and Under 49.5
