Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro (Serie A, Brazil)

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Cruzeiro pk -110 6units
Cruzeiro -0.5 +155 3units
Cruzeiro -1 +320 1unit
Don't like to put that many units on a single game, but these odds are plain out wrong. Starting odds even had Cruzeiro -0.5 +300 and pk +170...
Since their coaching change CRU has gone 7-5-1, scoring 23 and conceding 10 goals. If you take out the first two games with Menezes at the sidelines, they went 6-5-0, unbeaten for 11 games while scoring 18 and conceding 7. They scored in 10 of those last 11 games, 7 out of those 10 times they scored multiple times and 6 times they kept a clean sheet, while conceding multiple goals just twice.
With Menezes tactical changes this team has been clicking and running on all cylinders, going from the relegation ranks all the way up fighting for Copa Libertadores access. They will only miss one offensive midfielder, but he has been out quite some time and his replacement Marco Vinicius has been playing great.
Palmeiras is in a downward spirale in league play: Since October 1-1-5, only beating bottom dweller Avai. If you look at their last 6 games overall, they conceded goals in every game, multiple goals in all but one of those 6 games and that one time, Fred missed the tying goal in the 92nd min, the goal that would have eliminated Palmeiras from Copa do Brasil. Their defense has been anemic, last Wednesday they conceded another 3 goals to Atletico Paranaense...they also had trouble scoring, mainly scoring via penalty or set pieces.
That 3-3 draw pretty much ended any chance for them to finish in the top5 (Copa Libertadores), therefore their focus is on next weeks first leg of the cup final vs Santos. Today in their final practice session, just two regulars were part of the starting11, one of them being their goalkeeper.
They have 3 suspended players, will rest another 10-12 regulars, out of these 13-15 players, 2/3 won't even be on their bench. Their central defense will be Leandro Almeida, who has made a handful of starts for Palmeiras during this seasons 2nd half and hasn't played for a month, while the other centre back makes his 2nd appearance this year and has been out since August. The whole defense never played together, so their can't be much feel for spacing and such, which usually causes mistakes, extra space for the opposing attack and problems for the defenders, when they try to trap the opponent and have him run offside.
They will also be without pretty much their whole offensive team.
Add in the fact, that they openly admitted, that they focus on the cup game, had to travel south to Coritiba for Wednesday's game vs Atletico PR, while Cruzeiro has been preparing for this game the whole week since they already played last Sunday. CRU might also have some added motivation because they were eliminated from Copa do Brasil by Palmeiras during the quarter finals last August (still before CRU made the coaching change).

PAL should be without:
Jackson, Victor Hugo und Victor Ramos
Lucas, João Paulo, Ze Roberto
Amaral
Felype Gabriel, Rafael Marques, Lucas Barrios, Cleiton Xavier, Robinho, Dudu, Alecsandro and Gabriel Jesus

Out of these,
Jackson, Roubinho & Alecsandro are suspended. Victor Hugo, Lucas, Ze Roberto, Barrios, Cleiton Xavier, Gabriel Jesus, Dudu and Amaral shouldn't even be part of their bench
 

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S/12........good looking play..........BOL with your action.........indy
 

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As always thanks for your insightful write ups! Looks like books are thinking the same thing the way this line is moving... I will gladly tail.. BOL with all your plays today!
 

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1-1 --> -4units. Sorry...

Cruzeiro goes up 1-0, dominating the 1st half, but fails to score the 2nd goal. After halftime for no reason sits back and absolutely no movement, barely any counter attacks and Barrios, who got substituted into the game, converts pretty much the only real scoring opportunity.
Cruzeiro could have easily won, but the way they played in the 2nd half until the tying goal, they absolutely deserved not to win and being eliminated from the race for the top4/top5.
 

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