Pakistans nuclear dilemma

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The little guy with a big gun, stuck between the big guys and their agendas.
There is absolutely no way that Pakistan would relinquish its nukes while India has them.

Are they the rogue nuclear power in the cardpack?

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Inspections debate

So far, there is no obvious pressure on Pakistan to embark on nuclear reduction or a roll back.

But that could come, if or when new revelations about its proliferation history come to light.

The country could also come under pressure to open its facilities for inspection.


Many Pakistanis regard Dr Khan as a hero

"The outside world would be quite justified in asking the Pakistani government for proper assurances," says AH Nayyar, a physicist and nuclear expert from Qaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad.

"They could demand to inspect the log books of all sensitive organisations in Pakistan to make sure every single kilo of highly enriched uranium is taken account of. That could be very intrusive," he says.

But as long as President Musharraf is in power, that is extremely unlikely.

"No to an internal independent inquiry and no to United Nations inspections teams," he said after AQ Khan's dramatic confession last month.

He might have added 'no' to joining the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which has been mooted as a possible consequence of the proliferation scandal.

But it has been ruled out by one government official after another.

Pakistan would have to be legally recognised as a nuclear weapons state first, which is unlikely, and India would have to join the NPT at the same time, which is also unlikely.

Double standards?

NPT touches another nerve. There's a widespread belief in Pakistan that it is being singled out for scrutiny while India's weapons programme is overlooked.

Take the recent hi-tech agreement between India and the United States, on cooperation in nuclear power and space technologies.

Samina Ahmed, from the International Crisis Group, believes it is a green light for proliferation.


Khan's Kahuta plant is Pakistan's main nuclear weapons laboratory

"Transfers of dual-use technology, nuclear technology and space technology is violating a basic principle of the Non Proliferation Treaty," she says.

"It is dangerous and counterproductive.

"Dangerous because with some of the gaps in India's nuclear weapons programme being filled in with American support, that will encourage India to go ahead with its ambitious nuclear programme.

"And counter-productive because it will lead to other states playing catch-up."

While these argument rage, Pakistan is quietly hoping the whole issue will go away.

Or if it does not, that the focus of attention is turned on what President Musharraf says is the real menace - the European companies which he says form the backbone of the nuclear black market.

So far though, there is little sign of that happening.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3526969.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3481499.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3459617.stm

As mentioned in one article,

A trial, even held in camera, may implicate political and military leaders, which may destabilise President Pervez Musharraf's government.

So they can pretty much do as they please with no repercussions.
And what is 'old' nuclear technology in country A, is new in country B, and worth large wedges of Uncle Sams finest.
 

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