ducks,
my bad bro...I thought I remember you factoring in Best a lot into your equation of that game but didn't remember you touching too much on the injury...I'll take your word for it...too bad we disagree again this week on a Cal game, but I respect your opinion and am glad to be riding with you on Oregon St...BOL to you...
also, after reading your post about Cal's injuries...they have had most of these injuries to their O-Line for quite some time now, it's not like they've all popped up this week...secondly, Riley has one INT, one...say what you want about Cal's QB play but if Cal can just be semi-efficient in the passing game they have a good shot to win this game...Oregon has one "break-out" game against an ASU team that's quit for the season and now their offense is back?...I'm just not buying that bud...nor am I buying that they are anywhere close to the same team on the road as they are at home...they struggled at Purdue, at Wazzu doesn't really count, and the victory at ASU is kind of ho-hum...this will be by far their toughest road test to date...this is going to be a good game for sure, but I'd be greatly concerned about the quarterback play from Oregon and the Oregon WR's dropping passes, as the Cal defense should somewhat neutralize the Oregon running game...and is it me, with the exception of last year, or is does it seem like the home team wins this game most of the time in this series?...anyway, I'll not clog up your thread any longer...
my bad bro...I thought I remember you factoring in Best a lot into your equation of that game but didn't remember you touching too much on the injury...I'll take your word for it...too bad we disagree again this week on a Cal game, but I respect your opinion and am glad to be riding with you on Oregon St...BOL to you...
also, after reading your post about Cal's injuries...they have had most of these injuries to their O-Line for quite some time now, it's not like they've all popped up this week...secondly, Riley has one INT, one...say what you want about Cal's QB play but if Cal can just be semi-efficient in the passing game they have a good shot to win this game...Oregon has one "break-out" game against an ASU team that's quit for the season and now their offense is back?...I'm just not buying that bud...nor am I buying that they are anywhere close to the same team on the road as they are at home...they struggled at Purdue, at Wazzu doesn't really count, and the victory at ASU is kind of ho-hum...this will be by far their toughest road test to date...this is going to be a good game for sure, but I'd be greatly concerned about the quarterback play from Oregon and the Oregon WR's dropping passes, as the Cal defense should somewhat neutralize the Oregon running game...and is it me, with the exception of last year, or is does it seem like the home team wins this game most of the time in this series?...anyway, I'll not clog up your thread any longer...
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Pags, I'd call Cal's play somewhat on the spotty side most of the year. Did you per chance have any time to watch the UCLA replay? I've seen it twice and for all Cal was worth, they BARELY controlled the game vs UCLA. Were it not for Kevin Craft's 2 horribly timed picks, Cal just might have come out on the short end Saturday... and this is "offense a la UCLA" we are discussing here vs Cal playing in Berkeley. I have to ask, what the hell were they doing in that game for better than 3 quarters? (Actually I had it figured that they would be in it, but too bad it didn't last enough.) Kevin Craft literally threw the game away. That's how Cal managed a 3 TD win, not on their own merits.
It's my belief that the team that can close will win this game. There are many many ways Oregon can move the ball. These are just some of the things I think of when I look at Cal here.
Hope we all make good this week.
No problem. We are all entitled to our opinion and yours is one that I respect. Of course this will be a difficult road test for Oregon but on the flip side it will also be a difficult game for CAL. Games between the ducks and bears have been very close in the past few years and the home field does not matter so much both staffs are familiar with each other. We can debate the merit of Oregon's win at ASU but does CAL have a road win that would compare? If WSU doesn't really count then CAL has zero road victories. Furthermore, this year in the pac10 conference road wins have been scarce in games that don't involve wsu or uw so I have to give some credit for the ducks beating ASU. Not only did they win they won impressive. In fact of the 3 notable conference road wins, AZ at UCLA, USC @ AZ and UO @ ASU. I would say that Oregon's was by far the most impressive. I know CAL is the home team here but I say all this to give the ducks a bit more credit. That they managed to get here with this record given all of the qb issues is noteworthy IMO.
Why would you be worried about Oregon dropping passes and not be worried about CAL? Cal Wr's have been terrible as well. Why would you be concerned about Oregon's qb play and not CAL's? Cal went into that 4th quarter vs UCLA up by just 4 points and would have been behind if not for two defensive scores. Before that 60 yard flea flicker in the fourth Riley had less than 100 yards in the air (he also has two picks on the yr btw). I like Riley but I think it cuts both ways.
In the end I do think that this game will be close as you say. The game will most definitely be defined by the qb play. As one who viewed that ASU beatdown I haven't seen the duck offense sync like that since Dennis Dixon ran the team. If the Masoli who ran that offense shows up again, I think Oregon's chances to cover merit a one unit bet.
best of luck to you Bud. Appreciate the debate!
Respect your opinion but I just don't understand the re-emergence part..
Is this based solely on last week when they scored 50+ on a broken down ASU team who has quit.. I ask becuase before that they scored 31 against UCLA, 10 against USC and scored 63 against a broken down worst team in the nation WSU.
Gyno, I think Oregon fans and followers expect this offense to put out but they have not had very much continuity at QB this year. So when Masoli led them to some big numbers, it's what people have been waiting to see. Maybe ASU didn't put up as much of a fight as Cal will but on the other side of the coin is the Duck offense which has performed very well when they have had a little time to jell. That's only happened once or twice this year and the thinking is now that Masoli has learned to run the offense much better (as did Roper in the bowl game last season... very successfully too.)
The bet is partially about Chip Kelly who has masterminded this spread offense. We'll see if he's managed to put together another scoring juggernaut very soon in more games. It looks that way to me now because they hit from everywhere. Few teams are good enough to stop Oregon's spread when it's tuned up and running right. (A Chip Kelly signature.) The thinking is that Masoli has finally gotten it and can run the option correctly now and his passing has been pretty right on too. That's taken some time to develop. A competent QB is key to Oregon's spread offense. Masoli and Kelly needed some time.
Interesting factoid:
Oregon's 3 runners: Jeremiah Johnson, Jeremiah Masoli & LeGarrette Blount (JJ+L)
Oregon State's 3 runners: James Rogers, Jaquizz Rogers and Lyle Moevao (JJ+L)
Silly things always seem to happen that way in Oregon.
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first off, I was wrong as Riley has two interceptions on the season and not one...my bad...
conan,
I'll be watching that tape tonight...I'll have more thoughts for you afterwards...you know that I respect your opinion as well...BOL to you this week...
ducks,
excellent insight...my only comment is what does Cal's road record have to do with this game?...this is a home game for Cal so I'm not factoring in their performance on the road (remember I was on Arizona against them two weeks ago, because as you say they really do struggle on the road)..however, this IS a road game for Oregon, thus my examples regarding Oregon's road performance this year...at any rate this is your thread, you do excellent work and I won't take up any more of your time...GL this weekend bro...
bellyputter,
what's with the cheap shot?...I have no beef with you, I see this thread as four knowledgable Pac 10 cappers having a conversation about a game (two being on one side, two being on the other)...c'mon dude, you've been around long enough to know better...
conan,
I'll be watching that tape tonight...I'll have more thoughts for you afterwards...you know that I respect your opinion as well...BOL to you this week...
ducks,
excellent insight...my only comment is what does Cal's road record have to do with this game?...this is a home game for Cal so I'm not factoring in their performance on the road (remember I was on Arizona against them two weeks ago, because as you say they really do struggle on the road)..however, this IS a road game for Oregon, thus my examples regarding Oregon's road performance this year...at any rate this is your thread, you do excellent work and I won't take up any more of your time...GL this weekend bro...
bellyputter,
what's with the cheap shot?...I have no beef with you, I see this thread as four knowledgable Pac 10 cappers having a conversation about a game (two being on one side, two being on the other)...c'mon dude, you've been around long enough to know better...
I merely talked about Cals road record to give some flavor to this matchup. Only to say that while someone can denigrate Oregon's road wins over Purdue and ASU, with the exception of WSU, CAL has no road wins at all. I think the fact that Oregon has road wins @ purdue and ASU may speak to the maturity of the team. We have not yet seen that from CAL.
Gyno,
I really can't add much more to what Conan said. I saw what I saw in the ASU game. All year I have been somewhat disenchanted with Oregon's offense it has been a shadow of what it is capable of. Its easy to pin the blame here, QB uncertainty. Masoli has now started in 5 games (He went out in first series to BSU via concussion) and his improvement from game to game has been remarkable. I credit it to his comfort level with the offense and coaching. He ran for over 180 yards vs UCLA but his passing game was suspect (not helped by his wr's in that game either). Nonetheless it was eye opening as you could see his confidence grow in every play. In the ASU game I saw the fruits of a bye week in which the coaches/ wr's spent a lot of time getting the timing and touch down. It showed. He had a very balanced game vs ASU, didn't even play in the 4th qtr. And it wasn't so much the stats that would blow you away, it was the ease by which he was executing things. Sure I may be early in declaring a re-emergence and they could take a step back at CAL but after all we are gambling!
On the flip side I found myself very unimpressed with CAL's handling of UCLA at home. Were they looking ahead? Maybe...
Regards
Pags,
I will be able to back UoD in the injury reports on Best. We spoke about it in his thread actually I think...
I can back you in the questioning of the backing the Ducks this week. I just don't see enough value in this game, but I do think I am overlooking something on one side or the other. I am stuck here in the DEEP SOUTH and have been only able to watch teams like Cal and Oregon maybe two or three times by this time in the year. (With tailgating before UTK loses and all of that makes it tough LOL) So threads like this with two sides being discussed and even the why's behind why they played well here and not well there is great.
However, I have looked more into this game this morning after reading this thread and have a very good stat. One that swayed me back onto the Ducks a tad. (still not a lot of value.) The Ducks are a potent offense, no if, and, or buts about it. They are very very good on that side of the ball. California really has the rely on the play of Best and Vereen to get both the pass game and the running game going.
Now here is the stat that stands out...
While studying some of the clips of Cal and looking at the post game states I see that the QBs (Nate and Riley) have averaged around 24 passes PER GAME in the wins. Now what REALLLLLYYY stands out is that in their loses they combined averaged 57 passes PER GAME. That is a tremendous difference.
Question: With this being said how do California backers going to have to try and rely on stopping this Ducks offense to keep things in the hands of Best and Vereen?
Appreciate any feedback. I might be totally off here but, this is a stat that I look at in all of my SEC capping which is usually OKAY.
For and against comments definitely welcome guys.
This is exactly what we are trying to figure out here with every week's card. What trend will emerge this week? Hints at the level of play and shifts in momentum are all we have to work with spotting these trends.
The 2 that stand out this week are Oregon's "reemergence" on offense and ASU's apparent collapse. Both of them are on the "early" side but unmistakable in nature... we think.
Other notables: QB Kevin Craft's continuing problems at UCLA, Oregon State's overall improvement including the play of QB Lyle Moevao, WSU and UW's big problems on both teams continue, Stanford's stout performances from their RB's but continuing weakness in their secondary, maybe also Arizona's defense holding USC to just a couple TDs, USC's dominating defense... etc.
New areas to watch: Levenseller possibly playing QB for WSU, Cal's defense (under scrutiny) will be tested. UW's response to the news that TW is quitting after the season, Tavita Thompson's return to the Beaver OL, maybe one or 2 more that slip my mind at the moment.
Thought I'd mention Ducks that my remark about Oregon bringing their "A" game to ASU and some comments about "new wrinkles" Chip Kelly might bring to that game was about their bye week. Just give Chip Kelly some time with a QB and he can perform miracles with his offense. I was thinking about their layoff before their bowl game at USF LY and what happened there. My comments about the ASU game were pretty right on but my timing there was also a little bit lucky. Less so this week... and also more so as far as Masoli's luck goes. He's one lucky dude to be in the position to lead that offense... and he looked good doing it.
What will make this game tough is Oregon's OL figuring out blocking angles etc. vs a 3-4 D which they are not used to. Should that slow Masoli down running the ball, he'll need to be accurate throwing the ball to make up for it. That all adds up to a closer game but I still see the Ducks rushing game leading to a distinct advantage.
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Oregon almost always zone blocks so I am not as concerned, but it will be different in that instead of blocking a DL they may be attacking a LB.
But in watching CAL play past few weeks they will bring the LB's up to the line frequently essentially switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 sometimes the LB is stands up sometimes he is in down. In fact I think that with Oregon's running game it would be stupid to go 3-4 much of the time. Probably only see it in obvious passing situations. In that case ducks better be ready to go vertical because that's how you beat it.
ducks,
good points...ultimately this game comes down to two pretty evenly matched teams defensively and coaching...I just believe Cal has more balance on offense, a slight edge in special teams and the home field...while I do think Oregon has the better pass defense, I'm just not certain Oregon will be able to take advantage of Cal's secondary due to their QB situation...we will have to see how things play out on Saturday...great thread here...
good points...ultimately this game comes down to two pretty evenly matched teams defensively and coaching...I just believe Cal has more balance on offense, a slight edge in special teams and the home field...while I do think Oregon has the better pass defense, I'm just not certain Oregon will be able to take advantage of Cal's secondary due to their QB situation...we will have to see how things play out on Saturday...great thread here...
