Pac 10 Week 10

[UoweDucks]

inferior? I think thats a little harsh..

Maybe so Gyno. Cal has a lot of positives, Excellent LB's, and a good overall run D. They have terrific but small Rb's (when healthy). But there are some issues that I think most CAL fans would find troubling:

• CAL looks like their Oline which was to be a strength will be missing 3 starters and a top backup (Tepper, Guarnero, Teofilo and Laird are out) and at RT they will be starting a 4th stringer. Oregon has a very solid DL and two of the conferences leading sackers in Reed and Tukuafu.
• The passing game with Riley whom I think is an upgrade over Longshore has been very inconsistent it doesn't help that the CAL WR's have been very inconsistent as well. Cal's 3rd down conversion ratio vs ucla, 4 of 13.

For all of the talk though about CAL my reasoning for taking the points come down to what appears to be the re-emergence of the ducks offense. I know not many people saw the ASU/Oregon game but if they did they would have been impressed. Massoli ran the offense very well. In fact I would go as far as saying that it hasn't been run that well since Dennis Dixon limped off the field last year vs ASU. Every week that Masoli has started he has improved. I am going with the trendline here and I figure that he continues his ascent.

 

[Conan]

You may very well know more about Oregon State than anyone on this board. I don't doubt that. But, i find it very interesting that a few weeks ago you thought Oregon State was a good fade catching 11 on the road at Utah, and now you think they are a good investment at home laying 14 to Arizona State. Your opinions of this team seem to be flip flopping.

Oregon State has also won 5 in a row ATS, so their price is clearly starting to get very expensive.

Oregon State has a recent history (past 2-3 years) of playing poorly on the road in big games. But I never faded them, just a lean because I didn't bet the game. I gave them some space to win it because of how well they had played just the week before. That normally wouldn't have meant a lot but for the Beavers it was important because of their history of starting slow but then being practically invincible after September.

That also happens to be the case in this game aside from the obvious difference that they are playing at home where they RARELY if ever lose, not on the road as in Utah. It's not me that's flip flopped on them, for one thing it's the venue and it's also well into the season where they play their best game.

Sorry for the long and wordy explanation but you needed it.

 

[Conan]

ASU has far more problems than their OL. I have watched the last three ASU games and from my perspective this team has as a serious leadership deficit. I think that they are packing it in. Carpenter has a broken bone in his foot, all of his WRs are banged up. And they have ZERO running game. The ASU saving grace up until this week had been their defense. I think that the D has capitulated. Sloppy tackling, crappy pursuit angles and overall lack of team speed and now no desire. They have lost their 5 last games. I wouldn't put a bet in on these guys particularily on the road in a tough environment.

Ducks,

If you look at who the Bears have stopped on the ground, they wouldn't get very much credit for their rushing defense. ASU, UCLA, WSU were held under 100 yards. (OWOW!) Arizona swamped them and Maryland beat them soundly on the ground as well. Their only good game defensing the run vs a worthy opponent was in W1 vs MSU which is not often a typical week for anyone. They will not be able to handle the Duck rushing game. (based on their history this season as well as the Duck's resurrection running the ball)

 

[asudevil88]

ASU has far more problems than their OL. I have watched the last three ASU games and from my perspective this team has as a serious leadership deficit. I think that they are packing it in. Carpenter has a broken bone in his foot, all of his WRs are banged up. And they have ZERO running game. The ASU saving grace up until this week had been their defense. I think that the D has capitulated. Sloppy tackling, crappy pursuit angles and overall lack of team speed and now no desire. They have lost their 5 last games. I wouldn't put a bet in on these guys particularily on the road in a tough environment.

This team is a mess. The locker room is fractured and the losing doesn't help.

Several of the Koetter guys feel some form of entitlement because they are seniors. They are either not starting or are seeing limited playing time. This is causing a huge riff with the DE guys that are playing.

Also, and this is the most damaging thing I have heard, is that the coaches sat Rudy down sometime before the SC game and told him that if they had any other viable option, he wouldn't be playing. They don't like his attitude, his lack of leadership or his work ethic. All that have seen him play know that he is a warrior, but that doesn't translate to being a good qb. When he came in his freshman year to replace an injured Keller, visions of the next Jake Plummer came to mind. Little did everyone know of all of the other issues. I've seen Rudy out at baseball and basketball games and he is a loner. If that is by choice or the fact he has no friends, I don't know.

Right now, this team has to be a big fade and thats a tough pill to swallow.

 

[nd2000]

Sorry for the long and wordy explanation but you needed it.

If Arizona State has indeed mailed it in for the season then you have an easy winner obviously. If not, Oregon State will struggle to cover. ASU's shitty play of late has already been factored into the line. If you go back and look at all the spreads that each team has faced this year, it is quite apparent that oddsmakers had ASU AHEAD of Oregon State in the beginning of the season. ASU's terrible play is no secret to the oddsmakers, who sent out Oregon State -9 here. Now it is -14. That's a big amount of value lost IMO. I'm not touching this game, and i'll be interested to see what kind of effort ASU brings here. Personally, i really like Erickson and think he is a good coach. I'd be surprised if the kids just quit on him, but it is always difficult judging the mindsets of young men.

 

[EVincent]

Think Cal wins a close one.

 

[nd2000]

Right now, this team has to be a big fade and thats a tough pill to swallow.

ASU,

Do you think the kids are going to lie over and play dead the rest of the year? I'd be surprised, but you never know. What is the sense you are getting?? They at least were competitive with Cal and SC (in the sense that they came in very close to the spread). Was the Oregon game just a fluke, or has this team in fact mailed it in moving forward? Because if they have quit on Erickson, then Oregon State -30 is good value.

 

[Conan]

If Arizona State has indeed mailed it in for the season then you have an easy winner obviously. If not, Oregon State will struggle to cover. ASU's shitty play of late has already been factored into the line. If you go back and look at all the spreads that each team has faced this year, it is quite apparent that oddsmakers had ASU AHEAD of Oregon State in the beginning of the season. ASU's terrible play is no secret to the oddsmakers, who sent out Oregon State -9 here. Now it is -14. That's a big amount of value lost IMO. I'm not touching this game, and i'll be interested to see what kind of effort ASU brings here. Personally, i really like Erickson and think he is a good coach. I'd be surprised if the kids just quit on him, but it is always difficult judging the mindsets of young men.

Well now that you are finally looking at both sides, you need to take into account how ASU has methodically collapsed over the past several weeks. Pay attention to the ASU people here and you will have a clue. But as far as Oregon St. being a mediocre team, that's way off the mark. They've won more games than any other Pac-10 team aside from USC going back 2 1/2 years and counting. Their mediocrity is a product of the lack of coverage and hype about them that most everyone else gets. Nothing else, certainly nothing on the playing field or in their stats if you realize that they started slow as they usually do. But if you think the team that played in W1 or W2 @ PSU is the same (mediocre) team that's on the field today, you really haven't been doing your homework.

2 of their losses this year were not due to poor play, just bonehead mistakes that gave the game away. They outgained both Utah and Stanford but threw the game away with a lead in the 4th quarter or in the case of Stanford, fumbled the ball through the end zone resulting on a safety instead of a tie at the end.

What about them do you find mediocre? Even if you look at their rushing D, it's been a complete turn around since the PSU game when they were all new and hardly knew each other much less playing in sync... but now it's just the opposite. Even their pass defense is among the best in CFB. They have more scoring weapons than they've had in the last 3 years. They are poised to punish ASU. They tend to dominate teams at Reser. ASU will be nowhere near them.

And as far as value goes, sure give away 5 points and you have less value. DUH! But I still think they are better than 2TDs over the Devils in this spot.

 

[nd2000]

What about them do you find mediocre? Even if you look at their rushing D, it's been a complete turn around since the PSU game when they were all new and harldy playing in sync... but now it's just the opposite. Even their pass defense is among the best in CFB. They have more scoring weapons than they've had in the last 3 years. They are poised to punish ASU. They tend to dominate teams at Reser. ASU will be nowhere near them.

To some extent, the jury is still out on Oregon State. If you want to use the fact that they outgained Stanford and Utah to elevate your rating of OSU, then you have to take into account the fact they barely outgained a pitiful Washington team last time out and allowed 8.6 yards/pass to a backup QB on a high school level team. The same Washington team that is going to get outgained by 400+ yards at USC on Saturday. At the end of the day, I can definitely see them losing to Cal, Oregon and Arizona, which would give them a 5-4 record in a down conference this year, making them very mediocre.

 

[Conan]

To some extent, the jury is still out on Oregon State. If you want to use the fact that they outgained Stanford and Utah to elevate your rating of OSU, then you have to take into account the fact they barely outgained a pitiful Washington team last time out and allowed 8.6 yards/pass to a backup QB on a high school level team. The same Washington team that is going to get outgained by 400+ yards at USC on Saturday. At the end of the day, I can definitely see them losing to Cal, Oregon and Arizona, which would give them a 5-4 record in a down conference this year, making them very mediocre.

A lot of ifs you have there. Meanwhile they are one of the hottest teams in the Pac-10. I'll go by their present trajectory and also look at how they've closed out the last 2 years. (Including wins over Cal, USC, Oregon, ASU and all of their bowl games.) At least that projection is based on something more than "IF". Every aspect of their game has improved over the last month or more.

The only thing UW managed to do was pop off a few lucky longshots into their secondary. Aside from that (which disproportionally skews the stats) UW was rendered useless. So when you say they barely outgained UW, it has nothing to do with the way they controlled the ball the entire game. I said it before that you haven't read up on them, but just peroused the stats to come up with an opinion. You have your way I have mine.

 

[AR_23]

-15 :lol:

 

[Conan]

-15 :lol:

35-13 :toast:

 

[UoweDucks]

To some extent, the jury is still out on Oregon State. If you want to use the fact that they outgained Stanford and Utah to elevate your rating of OSU, then you have to take into account the fact they barely outgained a pitiful Washington team last time out and allowed 8.6 yards/pass to a backup QB on a high school level team. The same Washington team that is going to get outgained by 400+ yards at USC on Saturday. At the end of the day, I can definitely see them losing to Cal, Oregon and Arizona, which would give them a 5-4 record in a down conference this year, making them very mediocre.

ND2000 out of curiosity how many games have you watched ASU and OSU play this year? I can see your point about using past games statistics but without having actually seen what my eyes tell me I think you are getting just half the story. OSU is coming off a bye week, their QB play has improved significantly, they have one of the top rushers in the conference and are playing at home at night on national TV with Rose bowl implications.

Have you ever been to Reser stadium under those implications? I have. I think this merits a one unit play whether or not you deem it a "pathetic value play" or not concerns me very little. Best of luck with your ASU bet.



ASU,
Thanks for confirming what I had been observing about ASU. Sorry to see your team in such a sad state. I wonder how much of the problems stem from the Sam Keller/Carpenter issue two years ago?

The way I hear it Carpenter has always been somewhat of a primadonna. Stemming all the way back into HS.

 

[nd2000]

ND2000 out of curiosity how many games have you watched ASU and OSU play this year? I can see your point about using past games statistics but without having actually seen what my eyes tell me I think you are getting just half the story. OSU is coming off a bye week, their QB play has improved significantly, they have one of the top rushers in the conference and are playing at home at night on national TV with Rose bowl implications.

Have you ever been to Reser stadium under those implications? I have. I think this merits a one unit play whether or not you deem it a "pathetic value play" or not concerns me very little. Best of luck with your ASU bet.

No i have never been to Reser and i have watched Oregon State play 4 games this year. I watched them vs. USC, Utah, Penn State, and Stanford. I did not waste my time watching them play Wash or Wazzu because it would not change my opinion of them no matter what happened. Anyone is going to look invincible playing those clowns. I am not playing Arizona State because i have no way of knowing whether they will lay over and play dead or not. I just think the line has already been adjusted for Arizona's state's shitty play of late.

 

[asudevil88]

ND2000 out of curiosity how many games have you watched ASU and OSU play this year? I can see your point about using past games statistics but without having actually seen what my eyes tell me I think you are getting just half the story. OSU is coming off a bye week, their QB play has improved significantly, they have one of the top rushers in the conference and are playing at home at night on national TV with Rose bowl implications.

Have you ever been to Reser stadium under those implications? I have. I think this merits a one unit play whether or not you deem it a "pathetic value play" or not concerns me very little. Best of luck with your ASU bet.



ASU,
Thanks for confirming what I had been observing about ASU. Sorry to see your team in such a sad state. I wonder how much of the problems stem from the Sam Keller/Carpenter issue two years ago?

The way I hear it Carpenter has always been somewhat of a primadonna. Stemming all the way back into HS.

Yes, there are still problems from the whole Keller/Rudy debacle.

By the way, it was a unanimous vote in our group of 11 that Oregon had the hottest cheerleaders we had seen in over 10 years. Many times someone in our group would say "Did you see that play?" and the response was "No, I was looking at the cheerleaders". The cheer "sponsor" was extremely hot as well.

I guess thats what you get when the product on the field isn't worth watching.

 

[Conan]

Yes, there are still problems from the whole Keller/Rudy debacle.

By the way, it was a unanimous vote in our group of 11 that Oregon had the hottest cheerleaders we had seen in over 10 years. Many times someone in our group would say "Did you see that play?" and the response was "No, I was looking at the cheerleaders". The cheer "sponsor" was extremely hot as well.

I guess thats what you get when the product on the field isn't worth watching.

I'd rather watch Rogers and Rogers play or watch Moevao hit Straughter or Morales than give so much as a glimpse at some of Oregon State's cheerleaders. Oh my god what cows! They belong with the homosexual sheep study over there.

I am 50-50 on whether USC's cheerleaders or Oregon's cheerleaders are the bomb. However I could study the situation a while and get back to you on it.

 

[Conan]

No i have never been to Reser and i have watched Oregon State play 4 games this year. I watched them vs. USC, Utah, Penn State, and Stanford. I did not waste my time watching them play Wash or Wazzu because it would not change my opinion of them no matter what happened. Anyone is going to look invincible playing those clowns. I am not playing Arizona State because i have no way of knowing whether they will lay over and play dead or not. I just think the line has already been adjusted for Arizona's state's shitty play of late.

Even you would have to acknowledge that after a rocky start they've played SIGNIFICANTLY better football since the first month. While you are at it, pouring through your stats, make sure to note their past season's performances ('06+'07) and ask yourself if there isn't some definite pattern of improvement in their play, peaking towards the end of the season. Their coaching staff is one of the most underrated in all CFB... and so is their public perception such as the way you typify them. That has a lot to do with the lines too which is why they are still a good deal.

 

[UoweDucks]

However I could study the situation a while and get back to you on it.

Here is some study material.

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<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/mSyDotAmIpA&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></object>

 

[Conan]

My god they never looked that way when I was there. How things have changed.

 

[asudevil88]

I'd rather watch Rogers and Rogers play or watch Moevao hit Straughter or Morales than give so much as a glimpse at some of Oregon State's cheerleaders. Oh my god what cows! They belong with the homosexual sheep study over there.

I am 50-50 on whether USC's cheerleaders or Oregon's cheerleaders are the bomb. However I could study the situation a while and get back to you on it.

USC always seems to bring the "B" or "C" team to Tempe. I have seen the "A" Team on tv. I am only counting home games.