Pac 10 Pick Of The Week - Bowl Season

WCBias · Dec 21, 2004

Bowl Selections – Part 1
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YTD 10-5 – Pac 10 Game of the Week

YTD 36-31-1 – All Pac 10 Lined Games
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Finished the season with two straight losses, but I’ll take a 67% season, especially in the Pac 10. Too bad I pissed most of it away on the NFL.
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The Pac 10 has five bowl games this year…because that is all they are eligible for! Not a good year for the Pac 10, especially down at the bottom, but there were some highlights. USC started the season with a nice victory over ACC champ Virginia Tech in their back yard. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice:smarttags" /><st1

laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType> opened the season in <st1

lace w:st="on">Death Valley</st1

lace> and obviously prepared for the game like it was their national championship, only to have their all Pac 10 kicker miss not one, not two, but three extra points. <st1

laceName w:st="on">Arizona</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType> absolutely thumped a young <st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Iowa</st1

lace></st1:State> team, and Cal, a team three years removed from a two-win season, won 10 games for the first time since I’ve been alive.

I’m feeling good about a couple Pac 10 bowl games this year, starting off with Thursday’s Las Vegas Bowl. This year I will post my plays for all the Pac-10 games and rank them by stars (out of four), units, dollars, whatever you want to call it.

Las Vegas Bowl – Thursday December 23
3 Stars
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UCLA -12 vs. <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Wyoming</st1:State></st1

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I bought this down to 11 at Pinnacle for -113 when the line came out. This is such a huge mismatch of talent it is not funny. See 2003 <st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Las Vegas</st1

lace></st1:City> bowl, when an average Pac 10 team played on of the top MWC teams. If <st1:State w:st="on">Wyoming</st1:State> has anything going for it, it is that the only game they won outside of <st1:City w:st="on">Laramie</st1:City> was in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Las Vegas</st1

lace></st1:City>. Other than that they were 0-4 on the road, against some pretty average teams like BYU, <st1:State w:st="on">Colorado</st1:State> State, Texas A&M and <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">New Mexico</st1:State></st1

lace>.
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UCLA might have blew their wad against USC, but I think UCLA is a team on the rise. They have some very good young talent on that team, and have the capability of hanging a 50 spot on an average Wyoming defense ranked 75th in the country, 85th against the run. Now, UCLA’s defense is nothing to shake a stick at, and in fact is ranked 106th in the country. Unfortunately, <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Wyoming</st1:State></st1

lace> doesn’t have the rushing game (ranked 75th) to expose UCLA’s defensive weakness.
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<st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on"></st1

lace></st1:State>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Wyoming</st1

lace></st1:State> has everything in the world to play for here, I just don’t think they have the skill players and depth to compete with the much bigger and faster athletes from UCLA. Hate to hang my hat with Karl Dorrell here, but UCLA should win this by 20…at least.
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Final Score: UCLA 47 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Wyoming</st1

lace></st1:State> 24
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Insight Bowl – Tuesday December 28
4 Stars
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<st1

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laceName></st1

lace>
<st1

lace w:st="on"><st1

laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType></st1

lace> -3.5 vs. Notre Dame

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Last time <st1

laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType> played Notre Dame in a football game in <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State> there was one resounding theme…<st1

lace w:st="on"><st1

laceName w:st="on">Touchdown</st1

laceName> <st1

laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType></st1

lace>. <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1

laceName w:st="on">Touchdown</st1

laceName> <st1

laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType></st1

lace>. Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmandzadeh and about seven other future NFL players layed the wood to Notre Dame, exposing them as a team that should really consider joining the Big East and the BCS as a joke for having special deals allowing Notre Dame entry into the big party.
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This year’s game expect to hear more of the same. <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1

laceName w:st="on">Touchdown</st1

laceName> <st1

laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType></st1

lace>. <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1

laceName w:st="on">Touchdown</st1

laceName> <st1

laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType></st1

lace>. <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1

laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1

laceName> <st1

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lace>’s 8th ranked passing offense gets to go against ND’s 114th ranked pass defense. Derek Anderson could through four interceptions and still pass for 400 yards in this game.

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Notre Dame had some nice wins this year (<st1:State w:st="on">Michigan</st1:State>, <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State></st1

lace>), mixed in with some awful losses (BYU, Purdue). Oregon State blew its nut at LSU, forgot there was a rest of the season until game five, then finished the year with a 5-1 rally, their only loss coming to #1 USC in a game they could have won. <st1

laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType>’s defense is ranked 22nd in the country, and that includes facing USC, <st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State>, <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Boise State</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State></st1

lace> State, and LSU. I don’t think Notre Dame brings anything more to the table than OSU has already faced.
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As for the mindset of these two teams…Does Notre Dame even know its playing in a bowl game? Who’s the coach? Do they really care? I can tell you <st1

laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType> is thrilled to be here, especially after destroying hated rival <st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Oregon</st1

lace></st1:State> to keep them from the postseason.
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Notre Dame has proven it can beat good teams, but I can’t imagine this team being real focused on this game. This is the last game for several <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1

laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType></st1

lace> stand-outs; Derek Anderson on offense and Bill Swancutt, Mitch Meuwson and Aric Williams on defense. There is always the Mike Riley Factor, but I love <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1

laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType></st1

lace> here.
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Final Score: <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1

laceName w:st="on">Oregon</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType></st1

lace> 37 – ND 21
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Sun Bowl – Friday, December 31
3 Stars
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Purdue -7 vs. <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1

laceName w:st="on">Arizona</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType></st1

lace>
<st1

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<st1

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<st1

lace w:st="on"><st1

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lace>ASU laid the biggest egg of the season losing to <st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1

lace></st1:State> to end the year, and lost all-world quarterback Andrew Walter to boot. His replacement, sophomore Sam Keller, has minimal experience going against a pretty sturdy Purdue defense. <st1

laceName w:st="on">Arizona</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType>’s defense has been solid all year against lesser competition, except when they vanished against <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State>, but they got destroyed by USC and <st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Cal</st1

lace></st1:State>, teams with top-flight quarterbacks. And Kyle Orton is a top-flight quarterback, healthy too.

Andrew Walter was <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1

laceName w:st="on">Arizona</st1

laceName> <st1

laceType w:st="on">State</st1

laceType></st1

lace>’s offense. O.K. Zack Miller is a great tight end. But they have a slow receiving corp, a running back by committee, and an inexperienced back-up to guide them. They also have Dirk Koetter as their head coach, which is worth a touchdown for Purdue in itself.
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Boilermakers should cover hear handily.

Final Score: Purdue 31 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1

lace></st1:State> State 17

I’ll be back with Part 2 next week to cap the Cal and USC games. I’m waiting to see if the rumored departure of Cal QB Aaron Rogers impacts the line, and see where the public money flows in the USC/Oklahoma game, not that that will impact my play.

Good luck everyone, have a great Christmas, or enjoy the movies if you are Jewish or Muslim.

_wheredatreezat · Dec 21, 2004

Thanks for posting these. I like all 3, which might be a bad sign. GL to us.

Treez

steeser · Dec 21, 2004

Since the matchups came out I have loved the over in the UCLA-Wyoming game. Glad you seem to agree.

sphincter · Dec 21, 2004

after last year`s embarrassment vs fresno,you have to believe dorrell will do everything possible to have this club ready....

i liken this game to last year`s g.tech/tulsa game.......g.tech just overpowered the hurricane......with ucla`s ground game...and probably a little more of a passing threat than g.tech had,they should win and cover....

if wyoming had a solid ground game,i might not like this as much....

if they can`t handle wyoming,dorrell should be shitcanned...regardless of the contract extension..

KYWILDCAT · Dec 21, 2004

We have talked here and think the OR ST game might be to us one that is best game to play,, think the Irish are history in this game,

great write up and thanks for the info
OLD Cat

TartanDuck · Dec 21, 2004

Love the WC insite... what do you think about USC???

AlwaysKeen · Dec 22, 2004

WC,

agree with all three of these plays...GL...

WCBias · Dec 23, 2004

1st play tonight...not thrilled that it has been an all-favorite start to the bowl season and first big play is a dd favorite...but like the sphinx said, if UCLA can't handle wyoming, might as well rip up the contract extension.

sphincter · Dec 23, 2004

this has "sucker bet" written all over it....from the obvious mismatch in talent....to the situational set up....by that i mean ucla`s wetting the bed last year in a similar scenario...although,fresno was a bit more impressive an opponent...

the thing that really scares me(and don`t get me wrong,i believe wc knows his pac 10,and i agree with him),is the coaching here....

dorrell is lame...and wyoming`s coach had considerable success at smaller schools...

what we saw from tommy west last night(and all i had was a 1st qtr wager),was scary...

i`m going to be checking out the coaching match-ups in the bowls much more stringently in the rest of the bowl games....

gailey.imo,rated the edge over pasqualoni...imo...he`s a strong defensive coach...

n.texas was just outmanned...

this coaching match-up scares me...i grabbed ucla and bought half down to 11....

but dorrell really worries me...

that and the fact that nobody likes wyoming....

of course,the anti-public players will come on and put up wyoming as a play...and hope for lightning in a bottle...so they can look impressive on the forum...

but,if you honestly do the work,ucla is the play...

doesn`t mean they`ll get home...given the motivational factors...dorrell doesn`t strike me as a motivational master.....

sphincter · Dec 23, 2004

dorrell doesn`t know how to get this team prepared...i know that injuries happen...but added to the suspensions.....i don`t like this one bit...

i`m buying out of most of my wager....read this....

"""The UCLA Bruins are going to run out of crutches if Thursday’s Las Vegas Bowl matchup with Wyoming doesn’t get here soon.

UCLA is favored by 12 points despite the fact at least two crucial players have recently suffered injuries.

Junior defensive tackle C.J. Niusulu is hobbled by swelling in his right knee, and on Tuesday, starting wide receiver Tab Perry sprained his ankle in practice.

Coach Karl Dorrell is hopeful that Niusulu will be ready to go by game time, but it’s not looking good for Perry - he left a UNLV practice field on crutches with his leg wrapped in a blue boot. More Stories

"We put ice on it right away, and we'll try and see where he's at in a day or two," Dorrell said.

The latest injury to the Bruins came just one day after Dorrell announced he was suspending senior linebacker Ben Lorier and senior defensive tackle Eyoseph Efseaff for the Las Vegas Bowl game.

Dorrell said the pair violated an unspecified team rule which was a “circumstance that occurred that we didn't want to continue to fester in our team.” He sent both players home.

Lorier was going to start his third game at inside linebacker in place of the injured Spencer Havner, who underwent knee surgery recently. Havner was an All-American this season and the Pac-10's leader in tackles with 125.

The Bruins are now left with just four LBs to fill three spots.

The Bruins are also perilously thin at defensive tackle with Efseaff out and Niusulu hurting. Efseaff was shifted from the offensive line to become a defensive line starter and has made 13 tackles this season.

Of all the blows to UCLA’s lineup, Perry’s is likely to hurt the most. Not only has he been one of UCLA’s most dependable receivers recently, but he’s also the school’s all-time leader in kickoff return yardage with 1,476 yards.

Freshman Brandon Breazell will likely fill in at wide receiver if Perry can’t play. Breazell has just two receptions for 15 yards this season. """"

to many distractions....to much b.s...

Salsantorre · Dec 23, 2004

ucla is 1-7 as a bowl favorite and double digit bowl dogs do well historically

bubba-sc · Dec 23, 2004

Sal santorre said:
ucla is 1-7 as a bowl favorite and double digit bowl dogs do well historically

What UCLA did in the mid 90s has nothing whatsoever to do with tonite's game.

What double digit dogs did "historically" back 30 years ago, 15 years ago, 5 years ago, 1 year ago has nothing to do with UCLA's '04 roster and coaches, Wyoming's '04 roster and coaches.

I'm not siding with UCLA minus the points tonite, but meaningless trends are just that: meaningless

WCBias · Dec 23, 2004

UCLA...what a bunch of fucknuts. It's not like Las Vegas isn't a three hour drive from LA. The fact these kids aren't focussed on a football game and are out chasing ***** irritates the crap out of me. This team can't afford any more losses on the defensive side of the ball.

Salsantorre · Dec 23, 2004

that's bs bubba.....double digit dogs do well. that'sa ll there is to it! bet em' and you will win!!

WCBias · Dec 29, 2004

OK...I blew the UCLA game...lesson learned, never bet a Karl Dorrell coached team as a favorite.

But I damn near nailed the Beaver score.

ProphetablePicks · Dec 29, 2004

good job WC!!. your boys cashed for me in the 2nd half although they did let up a bit and made N.Dame look like they actually had an offense. some big plays coming up!!! lets finish strong!!.

AlwaysKeen · Dec 29, 2004

atta kid WC, good call

ElIguana · Dec 30, 2004

WC, your write-up on Oregon State was so compelling that I put a nickel on the Beavs (a huge play for a small timer like me). Thanks for your insight. :suomi:

Too bad about UCLA, but hopefully you got it all back (and then some) on OSU.

ppeter · Dec 30, 2004

Any opinion on the Cal game?

WCBias · Dec 30, 2004

Thanks to those above for the kind words...glad to help. Iggy, I made up for the UCLA loss in the first quarter!

Today we have the Holiday Bowl, so lets roll...just hit a key number, next one is 8 but I don't see it going that low.

<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State> -10 vs. <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Texas</st1:State></st1

lace> Tech
2 star

Horrible spot for <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State></st1

lace> here. Motivation, injuries…all the makings of an upset. I’ll take ‘em anyway.

First off, <st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Cal</st1

lace></st1:State> is not like the other teams that have been in this place before…screwed by the BCS. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Cal</st1

lace></st1:State> is new to the routine and trying to get a footing on being a national contender. This is part of the process so I do not see this being a let-down spot so much as other teams that have been here…like Texas, or <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Texas...</st1:State></st1

lace>.and <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Texas</st1:State></st1

lace>.

If at the start of this season someone had told Cal that they would win 10 games, only lose to USC by 9 yards, and play in the Holiday Bowl (the #2 slot for the Pac 10), I’m sure the players would have said Hell Yeah…sounds like a good season.
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Now without a doubt these kids are bummed about not playing in the Rose Bowl. That is the ultimate goal in the Pac 10. But I don’t see this as a de-motivator, as we have seen often with more recognizable schools used to the spotlight. The last Pac 10 team to get screwed by the BCS, USC, won an covered easily. The one before that, Oregon, won and covered...more easily.
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Texas Tech is a formidable opponent…for anyone. Their offense is ranked 6th in the country, scoring offense 11th (Both ranked below <st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Cal</st1

lace></st1:State>). But when they stepped up in competition against better defenses, they were average at best, and tonight they play one of the best defenses in the country. I feel confident that <st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Cal</st1

lace></st1:State> will hold TT under 24 points, which is enough to get a cover.
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<st1

lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State></st1

lace> will be without star WR McArthur, and have been without Lyman the past five or six games. So look for a heavy dose of JJ Arrington against the nations 73rd ranked run defense. This of course will set up the play action and Aaron Rogers will throw at least one 50+ yard TD. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Cal</st1

lace></st1:State> will get to the 40’s here against an average defense.
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Jeff Tedford has had plenty of time to study game film and is a phenomenal game planner and motivator. He will have his team fired up…Aaron Rogers has publicly stated he is staying. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Cal</st1

lace></st1:State> has a chip on its shoulder more than a hump in its back, and a team that who’s average margin of victory was nearly 27 points only needs to win by 10.
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Final Score: <st1:State w:st="on">Cal</st1:State> 41 – <st1:State w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Texas</st1

lace></st1:State> Tech 24

Good luck and Orange Bowl write up coming soon.