I saw that too but the annoncer thought at the time that Quizz Rogers would play. Unfortunately Quizz and his brother James are still hurt and neither will play. That leaves backup RB Ryan McCants and Jeremy Francis in the game with soph Darryl Catchings filling in the receiver duties vacated by James. (It;s doubtful that we will see a fly sweep here. Catchings is capable of it but he's never run one.) The other RB I mentioned, Jeremy Francis just rejointed the team this week after a short leave of absence visiting his ailing mother in Florida. He's not up to par on his Sun Bowl game practices. But he is a speedy cut back type of rusher and also a bit inconsistent. Same can be said about McCants consistency although he's next to impossible for any one man to bring down. But he's only shown that kind of intensity a few times this year. The rest of the time he demonstrates a lack of vision and patience finding his holes and waiting for his blockers to get their man out of his way. However I think he'll show some flashes of brilliance today because he's pumped. But he's no Jaquizz Rgers and Jeremy Francis is no James Rogers either.
I think that the combination of the two Rogers brothers out for the game will cripple Oregon State's offense, at the very least impede it putting too much on the shoulders of their QB Lyle Moevao to carry the load. He's proven to be a very good QB but without the threat of a rushing game, he'll have a tough time with the coverages he will be seeing and won't produce well enough to win this game. About the only chance I give them is if Sammie Stroughter and Shane Morales both step up and have career games at WR.
On the other side there's Oregon State's defense, coming off a humiliating loss to their arch rival Oregon in the Civil War a few weeks ago. I think this will have an effect that will make them turn up the heat here, even more than they are well known to do. While this tactic may work f or a while, I can't see them being successful enough stopping Pitt's small army of skilled players from reaching the end zone at times anyway.
I suspect a lower scoing game because of this but I can also see the Beavers playing catch up all day and falling short but likely staying within a TD of Pitt.
MY compliments to you Ducks for that fine write up on the Oregon game. I figured I could at least chip in with something almost as good on Oregon St.
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I guess I just ignored it when I happened to see it because I knew it was way off. For the sake of everyone else here that doesn't have a clue, I fixed it.
GL and I'll be adding the under to my play list in the other thread. Oregon State's defense should have a big influence on the game flow but I just don't think they have enough left offensively to keep up with whatever Pitt does manage to score.
But Sammie Stroughter still lurks and it's possible that he could prove to be the most dangerous player on the field in several ways, so I won't be playing more than a unit on it.
I'll probably be 1/2 unit. The game could shake a bunch of diff. ways.
Just saw this and it makes a TON of sense. What you think? Tedford is no dummy but even so he still should have been running the ball a LOT more.
Cal football: Tedford won’t be tempted by Longshore ever again
Posted by Jon Wilner on December 30th, 2008 at 8:15 am | Categorized as Cal football, Emerald Bowl, Jahvid Best, Jeff Tedford, Kevin Riley
Consider this to be “Random thought II,” as a complement to this item, even though it’s not-so-random a thought …
I held off on this a few days in case news of an injury to Kevin Riley trickled out of Bear Territory.
My thinking was this: An injury to Riley was the only possible reason Nate Longshore started the Emerald Bowl and stayed in the Emerald Bowl despite all those ineffective possessions.
There’s been nothing on a Riley injury since Saturday night, but that doesn’t mean he’s healthy. Teams conceal injuries all the time.
In fact, I’m convinced Riley was and is hurt, because that’s the only logical explanation for Coach Jeff Tedford’s decision to start and stick with Longshore.
That is, unless Tedford wanted to lose a game his team should have won handily, playing a few miles from home against a five-loss, suspension-riddled, freshman-quarterback-led opponent.
The way Jahvid Best ran (186 yards) and the way Cal’s defense swarmed (allowing three drives of more than 40 yards), the Bears should have won that game by 14-20 points. And yet they almost lost, in no small part because Longshore was so very, very mediocre.
(That’s being kind, I know. But it’s the season for giving.)
Take away the long catch-and-run to Verran Tucker, which, let’s face it, was an easy pass to an open receiver — the play itself was the key, not the pass or the catch — and Longshore was 9-of-20 for 47 yards.
A performance like that would have gotten Riley pulled all the way to 2010. And yet Longshore stayed in the game.
You look at the two of them, Longshore and Riley, and it’s so obvious who should be the starting quarterback. Yes, Riley has accuracy issues and doesn’t “get” the offense the way the coaches would like him to. But:
* He gives the Bears a running dimension, which is invaluable.
* His record as a starter the past two seasons (8-3) is much better than Longshore’s (7-7).
(Note: I’m giving Riley the win in the Armed Forces Bowl, even though he didn’t start, because 0-21 to 42-36 earns you a victory.)
* And his touchdown-to-interception ratio (2.7-to-1) is much better than Longshore’s (1.5-to-1).
In summation: Riley runs better. Riley wins more. Riley makes fewer mistakes.
Oh, and Riley was on a two-game winning streak (Stanford and Washington). It’s not like the Bears were in full meltdown mode, like they were last year when, by the way, Tedford stuck with Longshore as his starter for the Armed Forces Bowl.
And yet Tedford started Longshore in the Emerald Bowl based on his performance in two weeks of practice, to which I’d say: What about his performance in two years of games?
Like I said, the Emerald decision makes so little sense, and yet I think Tedford is so smart, that I’m convinced Riley is really hurt and Tedford had no choice but to start Longshore and stick with Longshore.
But maybe it’s just me …
Anyhow, here’s the point of this not-so-random thought:
The Emerald was Longshore’s final game, which means as much as he might want to, Tedford cannot possibly start Longshore over Riley or Brock Mansion next season.
And for that, Old and Young Blues should rejoice. (Or at least be thankful.)
Just saw this and it makes a TON of sense. What you think? Tedford is no dummy but even so he still should have been running the ball a LOT more.
Cal football: Tedford won’t be tempted by Longshore ever again
Posted by Jon Wilner on December 30th, 2008 at 8:15 am | Categorized as Cal football, Emerald Bowl, Jahvid Best, Jeff Tedford, Kevin Riley
Consider this to be “Random thought II,” as a complement to this item, even though it’s not-so-random a thought …
I held off on this a few days in case news of an injury to Kevin Riley trickled out of Bear Territory.
My thinking was this: An injury to Riley was the only possible reason Nate Longshore started the Emerald Bowl and stayed in the Emerald Bowl despite all those ineffective possessions.
There’s been nothing on a Riley injury since Saturday night, but that doesn’t mean he’s healthy. Teams conceal injuries all the time.
In fact, I’m convinced Riley was and is hurt, because that’s the only logical explanation for Coach Jeff Tedford’s decision to start and stick with Longshore.
That is, unless Tedford wanted to lose a game his team should have won handily, playing a few miles from home against a five-loss, suspension-riddled, freshman-quarterback-led opponent.
The way Jahvid Best ran (186 yards) and the way Cal’s defense swarmed (allowing three drives of more than 40 yards), the Bears should have won that game by 14-20 points. And yet they almost lost, in no small part because Longshore was so very, very mediocre.
(That’s being kind, I know. But it’s the season for giving.)
Take away the long catch-and-run to Verran Tucker, which, let’s face it, was an easy pass to an open receiver — the play itself was the key, not the pass or the catch — and Longshore was 9-of-20 for 47 yards.
A performance like that would have gotten Riley pulled all the way to 2010. And yet Longshore stayed in the game.
You look at the two of them, Longshore and Riley, and it’s so obvious who should be the starting quarterback. Yes, Riley has accuracy issues and doesn’t “get” the offense the way the coaches would like him to. But:
* He gives the Bears a running dimension, which is invaluable.
* His record as a starter the past two seasons (8-3) is much better than Longshore’s (7-7).
(Note: I’m giving Riley the win in the Armed Forces Bowl, even though he didn’t start, because 0-21 to 42-36 earns you a victory.)
* And his touchdown-to-interception ratio (2.7-to-1) is much better than Longshore’s (1.5-to-1).
In summation: Riley runs better. Riley wins more. Riley makes fewer mistakes.
Oh, and Riley was on a two-game winning streak (Stanford and Washington). It’s not like the Bears were in full meltdown mode, like they were last year when, by the way, Tedford stuck with Longshore as his starter for the Armed Forces Bowl.
And yet Tedford started Longshore in the Emerald Bowl based on his performance in two weeks of practice, to which I’d say: What about his performance in two years of games?
Like I said, the Emerald decision makes so little sense, and yet I think Tedford is so smart, that I’m convinced Riley is really hurt and Tedford had no choice but to start Longshore and stick with Longshore.
But maybe it’s just me …
Anyhow, here’s the point of this not-so-random thought:
The Emerald was Longshore’s final game, which means as much as he might want to, Tedford cannot possibly start Longshore over Riley or Brock Mansion next season.
And for that, Old and Young Blues should rejoice. (Or at least be thankful.)
I am plowed right now. Very happy about the game. the over should have hit dammit. breakeven on the day. Ducks did what I thought they would do. OSU play tomorrow.
RECAP
CAL -6.5 vs MIA, 2 units W
UO/OSU OVER 77, 1 unit L
Oregon +3 vs OSU, 1 unit W
AZ/BYU OVER 59.5, 1/2 unit L
GO DUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
RECAP
CAL -6.5 vs MIA, 2 units W
UO/OSU OVER 77, 1 unit L
Oregon +3 vs OSU, 1 unit W
AZ/BYU OVER 59.5, 1/2 unit L
GO DUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast:
A few too many of these last night for me. ughh Thx guys for the well wishes, appreciate it.
I have been looking at this damn sunbowl for weeks and find that despite my early inclination to take Pitt I have real doubts. This stems mainly from my admiration of coach Riley. He is a PROVEN bowl coach with a 4-0 record. I know that I stated it would be difficult to back OSU w/out the Rogers brothers but the beavs have had several weeks to prepare an offense with the knowledge that the Rodgers brothers are out so I think it is too simplistic to assume that they will be ineffective offensively.
I wondered about the mental state of OSU after the ducks cornholed them but then I read this BB material from Pitt:
---------
"I don’t think they have faced a defensive line like us,” DT Rashadd Duncan was quoted saying. “I mean, the last defensive line they played like us was Penn State, and the results speak for themselves.”
And...
“Like (USC), for instance, they have big (defensive linemen) guys, but they weren’t as quick as us,” Duncan said. “They might have been as strong as us, but they are not as quick as us. Like I said, I don’t think (OSU) has faced anyone like us and that will be our plan, to surprise them (with athleticism). If not, if they want to make it a fight, we’ll strap it up like we do.”
----------
Is this guy for real? Sorry for asking but what in the hell has Pitt done to talk this kind of shit???
Anyway the way I see it for OSU to win they'll have to take to the air plenty they've got a good OL and serious weapons at WR. If they are unsuccessful in this then they lose this game and it will most likely be a lower scoring affair. I realize I may be the only person on the board here that is siding OSU but my hope is that I am setting my bets up today as a hedge against each other. Make sense? I don't know maybe it is the hangover...
Adding
OSU -1, 1/2 unit
UNDER 52, 1/2 unit
A few too many of these last night for me. ughh Thx guys for the well wishes, appreciate it.
I have been looking at this damn sunbowl for weeks and find that despite my early inclination to take Pitt I have real doubts. This stems mainly from my admiration of coach Riley. He is a PROVEN bowl coach with a 4-0 record. I know that I stated it would be difficult to back OSU w/out the Rogers brothers but the beavs have had several weeks to prepare an offense with the knowledge that the Rodgers brothers are out so I think it is too simplistic to assume that they will be ineffective offensively.
I wondered about the mental state of OSU after the ducks cornholed them but then I read this BB material from Pitt:
---------
"I don’t think they have faced a defensive line like us,” DT Rashadd Duncan was quoted saying. “I mean, the last defensive line they played like us was Penn State, and the results speak for themselves.”
And...
“Like (USC), for instance, they have big (defensive linemen) guys, but they weren’t as quick as us,” Duncan said. “They might have been as strong as us, but they are not as quick as us. Like I said, I don’t think (OSU) has faced anyone like us and that will be our plan, to surprise them (with athleticism). If not, if they want to make it a fight, we’ll strap it up like we do.”
----------
Is this guy for real? Sorry for asking but what in the hell has Pitt done to talk this kind of shit???
Anyway the way I see it for OSU to win they'll have to take to the air plenty they've got a good OL and serious weapons at WR. If they are unsuccessful in this then they lose this game and it will most likely be a lower scoring affair. I realize I may be the only person on the board here that is siding OSU but my hope is that I am setting my bets up today as a hedge against each other. Make sense? I don't know maybe it is the hangover...
Adding
OSU -1, 1/2 unit
UNDER 52, 1/2 unit
Well one more thing the Beavers have going for them is the way the line has moved against them hard. Coming off a number like 3 isn't an easy thing. You won't see that very often. So Pitt's been sided. I hope you get over your hangover Ducks. Personally I think your vision has been affected! (JK)
everyone knows the best cure for a hangover is....
:toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast:
everyone knows the best cure for a hangover is....
:toast::toast::toast::toast::toast::toast:
What an absolutely brutal game to watch! OSU kicker cost me a perfect day but the P10 continues its streak of bowl winnings. 4-2-1, +2.5 units so far in the P10 bowls and looking forward to improving on that in the RB. Will post tomorrow on my game thoughts. Happy new year!
RECAP
CAL -6.5 vs MIA, 2 units W
UO/OSU OVER 77, 1 unit L
Oregon +3 vs OSU, 1 unit W
AZ/BYU OVER 59.5, 1/2 unit L
OSU -1, 1/2 unit W
UNDER 52, 1/2 unit W
SECOND HALF; OSU pick, 1/2 unit T
RECAP
CAL -6.5 vs MIA, 2 units W
UO/OSU OVER 77, 1 unit L
Oregon +3 vs OSU, 1 unit W
AZ/BYU OVER 59.5, 1/2 unit L
OSU -1, 1/2 unit W
UNDER 52, 1/2 unit W
SECOND HALF; OSU pick, 1/2 unit T
Rose Bowl
I like everyone else in the universe believe that this game is going to be a low scoring affair. My guess is that USC will allow no more than a TD and perhaps 2 Field goals. The USC offense has been very pedestrian this year and their coordinator has accepted another job. As a result I am having a hard time envisioning a blowout ala Illinois. I also respect the defense that PSU plays. I am much stronger on the total than the side.
The line have been very tight this bowl season and as a result I have been considering how to play this game all week. I'll put something on the total given reasons above. In addition to that I am going to do something that I rarely do. Yes I am going to tease it. I don't need five posts telling me how stupid it is to tease college games, I get it. Just don't see a better way to play the game.
I may also do some live betting as the game progresses... Best of luck today!
ADDING:
USC/PSU UNDER 44.5 1/2 unit
USC -2.5 / Under 51 (-120) 1/2 unit
I like everyone else in the universe believe that this game is going to be a low scoring affair. My guess is that USC will allow no more than a TD and perhaps 2 Field goals. The USC offense has been very pedestrian this year and their coordinator has accepted another job. As a result I am having a hard time envisioning a blowout ala Illinois. I also respect the defense that PSU plays. I am much stronger on the total than the side.
The line have been very tight this bowl season and as a result I have been considering how to play this game all week. I'll put something on the total given reasons above. In addition to that I am going to do something that I rarely do. Yes I am going to tease it. I don't need five posts telling me how stupid it is to tease college games, I get it. Just don't see a better way to play the game.
I may also do some live betting as the game progresses... Best of luck today!
ADDING:
USC/PSU UNDER 44.5 1/2 unit
USC -2.5 / Under 51 (-120) 1/2 unit
