PAC 10 Bowls

Conan · Dec 20, 2008

UoweDucks said:
Thx guys,

Conan. I like that reasoning on the OSU game. I am also strongly considering taking Pitt. Not only do I question the beavs motivation their injury status is really bad. They have the look of a team that peaked too early. Now for a change it looks like Oregon is peaking at just the right time.

I would consider Pitt but they say that Wanstadt isn't the guy to depend on in a tough game. I haven't checked out his bowl record but there seem to be some coaching issues with Pitt that I don't know much about.

I'm really considering the under because it could happen. Like I was saying in the other thread, I think the Beaver defense will be very aggressive in this game because of the way they were beaten in the CW. It's also the farewell game for Beaver' DEs Victor Butler and Slade Norris... both will play on Sundays.

Conan · Dec 20, 2008

...and of course one comment I have on the Holiday Bowl.

I understand what people are saying about Gundy's offense... how well balanced it is and how easily they've scored against some pretty decent B-12 defenses. However I do not see as much success for them rushing against the Duck DL as the Ducks will have running against OSU. OK there I said it.

But there's one thing about the game playing out that way that I wish to add.... The fate of the Duck offense lies in the hands of Jeremiah Masoli.

You know Johnson and Blount will he heard from but Masoli's game, especially his play of late could be the difference in this game. He's a relatively unknown factor that I think a lot of people in this forum don't know about. If his play continues to improve as it has, the Duck offense will be heard from in big ways and also be set for years. Having a really good QB that can throw well and run the option sets this team apart from the rest. Remember Dennis Dixon.

If they are not at least in the same class as Ok St.'s offense then nobody is. But it's all up to Masoli.

3peet · Dec 21, 2008

Zona owns #17 BYU. Where's Whormoan?

gynecologist · Dec 21, 2008

Arizona is a good team.. I think when its all said and done the Pac-10 won't look so bad afterall

AlwaysKeen · Dec 21, 2008

ducks,

I agree completely with you about Masoli...scary to think how good Oregon could have been had he been healthy all season and played that well...

Conan · Dec 23, 2008

gynecologist said:
Arizona is a good team.. I think when its all said and done the Pac-10 won't look so bad afterall

Gyno,

I've finally come back from the netherworld after witnessing a mature bunch of men blow out a game. Not to take anything away from the Wildcats (though it was only their second quality win this year -- Cal the 1st.) because they played well and executed with skill and quickness. But let's face it BYU imploded. Anyone who watched the game knows what a good game it was until BYU's bonehead mistakes became just too much for them to overcome. They were sloppy, sloppier than the Wildcats. That's the last thing I expected to see from a team comprised mostly of grown adult men in their mid-20's, playing against a much younger, smaller and less mature bunch of kids.

I'm over it now, but it was a very disappointing thing to watch -- a group of grown adult men, not kids but mature married men with famiiles in their mid 20's -- as they imploded and took it right on the chin. However, the bottom line is to give credit where credit is due, Stoops had his youngins well prepared and well motivated

Between the turnovers and slop, it was a pretty good football game, probably the best on TV all day Saturday. Along with Zona's win comes some redemption for a bunch of young new Pac-10 football players who did a lot of growng up themselves this past season.

I know one game won't make all the arrogant SEC homeys STFU and show a little respect towards other schools outside their own conference, especially the Pac-10 against whom they seem to have a problem with winning their fair share of games. (Their W/L is just 7-11 vs the Pac-10 in their last 18 meetings -- even worse than that if you throw out USC and LSU games.)

But regardless of what they think tjey know about the Pac-10, the Wildcats played a pretty good game and represented their conference well. They played a good game and they deserved the win.

clutch · Dec 23, 2008

One thing that really bothered me in that game was when Thomas shoved Stoops.

Stoops did nothing about it.

If I am a coach, that guy gets benched for the rest of the game.

I don't care how good he is or how much you need him or if he wants a record.

Shoving your coach is unacceptable.

I have no respect for Stoops and his players won't really either in the future.

Stoops dumb ass just laughed it off and kissed his ass after it happened.

Conan · Dec 23, 2008

Stoops should have just shoved him right back back and warned him that if he ever did that again he'd throw him off the team.

Hell, Thomas got the record. He's in the books. Only one other player in the history of the Pac-10 caught as many passes as he did. Maybe Stoops didn't think that hothead deserved to own the record alone. Maybe it would serve Mike Thomas to remember to have a little humility.
Maybe Stoops is right.

nd2000 · Dec 23, 2008

Conan,

Any insight on the Sun Bowl?? How many starters will Oregon State be without? Thanks - nd

Conan · Dec 23, 2008

I feel that the Beaver defense could come out and sparkle all game long. I also mentioned that it wouln't come as a big surprise to me if OSU's defense did some scoring and essentially took the game over.

Oregon State's compliments of skill position players is roughly as follows (most of the key players)...

Ryan McCants - touted to be the next Steven Jackson (but we'll see)
Jeremy Francis (returning to the team) :103631605

Shane Morales - #2 on the team
Sammie Strougther - #1 on the team
John Reese
Daryll Catchings
Damola Adeniji

I haven't seen any practice reports lately but I'm sure the writers in Corvallis will be talking about that soon enough.

Also:
John Reese (TE)
Brady Camp
Chris Johnson

UoweDucks · Dec 26, 2008

More proof behind my posts a few weeks back on the state of Miami being in some dissaray. I feel pretty good about overweighting CAL early.

Miami snapper is 5th Hurricane suspended for bowl

 <abbr title="2008-12-25T14:04:13-0800" class="timedate">Thu Dec 25, 5:04 pm ET</abbr>
  CORAL GABLES, Fla. – Miami punt snapper Chris Ivory will not play in Saturday's Emerald Bowl because he violated an unspecified team rule. He is the fifth Hurricane suspended for the final game of the season.
Ivory did not accompany the Hurricanes to San Francisco, where Miami (7-5) will face California (8-4) on Saturday.
He also was suspended for the season-opener against Charleston Southern for another rules violation, but won Miami's Albert Bentley Award as the team's most valuable walk-on player.
Jake Byrne, who handles snaps on field goals, will take over Ivory's punt-team duties. Byrne will also be the backup quarterback behind Jacory Harris, who will start after Robert Marve was suspended for missing classes.
Tight ends Richard Gordon and Tervaris Johnson, along with linebacker Jordan Futch, were also suspended last week for the bowl game because of team rule violations.

One comment on AZ/BYU game. Over should have hit in a multitude of ways but didn't. That's gambling.

On UO/OSU, in addition to the OVER I will be adding UO. The more that I diagnose the game the more I come to the conclusion that UO is the side. At this point I haven't decided on unit size. After seeing that 80% of the public considers OSU the play (On the ESPN ticker) I will wait to see if line moves as well. I'll write up reasoning at some point before monday.

On OSU/Pitt. I will be considering the UNDER but am shy about playing a side. I know that I stated I was thinking about favoring Pitt but fading Riley in a bowl game has been a BAD idea. He's never lost one as an asst. or head coach. OSU wins coaching matchup in a big way but this may be Rileys sternest test. For me the total will most likely be my only play.

RECAP
CAL -6.5 vs MIA, 2 units
UO/OSU OVER 77, 1 unit
AZ/BYU OVER 59.5, 1/2 unit L

Conan · Dec 26, 2008

Masoli, Blount and Jeremiah Johnson are 3 good reasons right there. Along with Oregon's pretty decent run defense which will force OSU into a throwing game, I can see the Ducks putting some distance between themselves and OK St.

GoSooners · Dec 26, 2008

Conan said:
I can see the Ducks putting some distance between themselves and OK St.

I can't see this Conan. But I can see the Ducks staying within the number or possibly winning it outright.

Conan · Dec 26, 2008

GoSooners,

I am not that familiar with your running dogs system, but wouldn't Oregon be considered a running team (#3 in the country) and getting points, wouldn't that qualify them in your system?

GoSooners · Dec 26, 2008

Conan said:
GoSooners,

I am not that familiar with your running dogs system, but wouldn't Oregon be considered a running team (#3 in the country) and getting points, wouldn't that qualify them in your system?

Definitely...I will more than likely be on the Ducks and the points. Or at the very least the over in this game. But the Ducks haven't seen an offense this year that is remotely this good. So I'm not sure how either team is going to react to the others offense. My best guess is Oregon will be a shade better than OSU on defense. And this could be the difference in the game. I think the Ducks can probably wear OSU down with their running game. That is if they can get the ball away from the Pokes long enough to do some damage.

WinOne · Dec 26, 2008

With the Miami snapper out, I am sure that CAL is scheming for trying to get a block on either punts or FG's. Their special teams are typically pretty good to begin with. Not sure I like the selection of longshore at QB but Tedford must feel that his OL can block the DL of Miami. With this being a CAL home game, I'll give a slight lean to CAL but like the OVER a lot more. I can see a couple of short fields due to special teams and Miami will be one of the fastest team CAL has seen so there will always be the potential for explosive plays. The Total seems a bit low to me. Miami has had trouble with good offensive teams all year long.

WinOne!!

WinOne · Dec 26, 2008

Ore v OkSt
This is one I am interested in seeing. Living here in Dallas area we get all the B12 packages. So I want to see if their offenses are that prolific or if they just don't play any defense. Personally, I don't think the conference plays any defense, despite having some fairly decent players on defense. TCU which has a great defense slowed down OU. Non conference for OkSt if I recall they gave up almost 40 to Houston (playing first game) and 25 to a pedestrian Troy offense. The kicker is that in both games they gave up over 5yr per rush to teams that are no where near as prolific as Oregon is running the ball. On the season Pokes give up 4yd per rush in a conference where nobody runs the ball. The Oregon Secondary will have to play to the hype it got before the season though because Robinson can throw it all over the yard and he's got a ton of talent at the WR and TE positions that is of the USC caliber.

Love the OVER and probably will play the Ducks with the number.

WinOne!!

AlwaysKeen · Dec 27, 2008

ducks,

getting ready to watch your boys in a couple of days...should be a good one...hope your holiday season is treating you well...keep on keepin' on my friend...

UoweDucks · Dec 28, 2008

Should have pulled the trigger on that middle but pleased to be on the winning side. Why CAL wasn't running the ball more is a BIG question. I feel like offensively they had a gameplan and by god they were going to stick to it even though it was obviously not effective. Miami played a decent game and had a shot at winning kudos to them but what the hell, Shannon may have wanted to work on the 2 minute offense at some point this season, they killed themselves at the end of each half. How ugly was that?

RECAP
CAL -6.5 vs MIA, 2 units W
UO/OSU OVER 77, 1 unit
AZ/BYU OVER 59.5, 1/2 unit L

UoweDucks · Dec 28, 2008

WinOne said:
Ore v OkSt
This is one I am interested in seeing. Living here in Dallas area we get all the B12 packages. So I want to see if their offenses are that prolific or if they just don't play any defense. Personally, I don't think the conference plays any defense, despite having some fairly decent players on defense. TCU which has a great defense slowed down OU. Non conference for OkSt if I recall they gave up almost 40 to Houston (playing first game) and 25 to a pedestrian Troy offense. The kicker is that in both games they gave up over 5yr per rush to teams that are no where near as prolific as Oregon is running the ball. On the season Pokes give up 4yd per rush in a conference where nobody runs the ball. The Oregon Secondary will have to play to the hype it got before the season though because Robinson can throw it all over the yard and he's got a ton of talent at the WR and TE positions that is of the USC caliber.

Love the OVER and probably will play the Ducks with the number.

WinOne!!

Thx Winone,
You echo my thoughts on the game. I am very strong on the over and am going to commit the side now. Oregon +3. The ducks, winners of their past three games are peaking at the right time. OSU has lost 2 out of their last three.

The key to Oregon's late season surge has been the steady improvement game by game at QB from Masoli. At this stage he has the duck offense humming along as well as it ever has, and that includes Dixon's great games last year. The last 2 duck opponents were ranked in the top 30 nationally defensively and Masoli and co. completely shredded them. I expect it to happen again vs Oklahoma St whose defense ranks in the 80's. OSU has been without their D coordinator and is thin on their D staff. This increases the burden as Oregon's D is VERY difficult to prepare for.

The ducks are also soft defensively which is why I hit the over so early this month. They'll surrender pts to OSU who has very good skill players and QB as well. The ducks are far more susceptible in the air and that is where they will get burned. The cowboys could win the game but I have a hard time imagining this being anything but a very close contest.

Adding: Oregon +3, 1 unit

One other thing, the ducks have a big motivator in this one:
They lost a player this summer in a drowning accident, Todd Doxey. He is from San Diego. It has been a big motivation to the team this yr. Doxeys family will all be at the game...