Solid reasoning NoBS. I would just be cautious on this play (for what thats worth, not a lot I know.) Let me play a bit of devil's advocate:
I will be interested to see how young Dodge fares and if he's able to avoid INTs. After all, playing devil's advocate, I would ask who has he got to throw to? And yes, he was a stud in Texas HS and thats saying something, but that was over a year ago and he's since rehabbed from an injury. Also, Big Dodge's system is from his high school days, right? Hasn't worked out too well thusfar, that's for sure.
Also, BSU has a guy named Miquayle Lewis carrying the pigskin who ain't bad. If he gets into that NTU secondary too often it will be trouble. Also, if he has a good game, he could really cut NT's time-of-possession.
But, I can't argue with your logic on the points. It does seem like way too many. It should be around 2 TDs tops - and that's with Lewis running a good game and NT losing the TO battle.
BOL with this one.