On The Hop's 2017 NFL Football

[OnTheHop]

10/9/2017 (18-24-1, -9.70)

No way to sugarcoat it. I've just been awful. No bad beats. Nothing unlucky. Just bad reads. I'll grind my way out of it.

Chicago Bears +3.5 (-110), 1 unit: Bears have been solid at home and I expect the crowd to be insane and very well lubricated since the Cubs play this afternoon. Trubisky will give them a slight edge since there is very limited film on him. Bradford's return will not help the Vikings loss of Cook. Finally the Bears have been off since last Thursday giving them some extra rest and time to install a game plan for Trubisky.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight

 

[OnTheHop]

10/12/2017 (19-24-1, -8.70)

Continuing to try and grind my way back.

Carolina Panthers -3 (EVEN), 1 unit: These teams are so even and so similar that it came down to two things for me. First, being at home on a short week is more of an advantage than in a traditional week. Second, the loss of the Eagles OT has a huge impact on Wentz. Look at the numbers with him and without him. Those two things make me feel like I have enough of an edge to play this one.

 

[OnTheHop]

10/15/2017 (19-25-1, -9.70)

I've got some bad numbers this week. Just hasn't been my year in the NFL. I hate people that disappear when their picks go bad so I'll keep posting.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-120), 1 unit: Just a bad spot for the Rams. Beaten up by Seattle, traveling across country, heading to London next week. Love the Jags D. Have to hope Bortles keeps doing what he's been doing. May buy out of this one later today.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 (-120), 1 unit: Another bad number. However, I just don't believe in the Steelers and Big Ben on the road. At some point the Chiefs bubble is going to burst. Hopefully it's not this week.

Chicago Bears +7 (-120), 1 unit: The Ravens don't deserve to be laying 7 to anyone right now. Look for both teams to try and control the clock, shorten the game with the run and hope to hang on to the ball. In that scenario, I'll gladly take the 7 points.

New Orleans Saints -4 (-110), 1 unit: Saints getting healthy, getting their O Line in order and also get Snead back. Stafford's ankle is going to be an issue and the Lions cannot keep pulling rabbits out of their hat. Look for Kamara to be very involved today and give New Orleans yet another weapon on offense.

Washington Redskins -4/Denver Broncos -5 (-120), TP, 1 unit

Minnesota Vikings +10/San Diego Chargers +10 (-120), TP, 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

​Denver Broncos -6/New York Giants & Denver Broncos u45 (-120), TP, 1/2 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

Indianapolis Colts +8 (-110),2 units: Was waiting for this one to open up. Obviously Mariota is playing. However, will he be as mobile as he normally is? Doubtful. The Titans D has really struggled and asking them to hold the Colts down, even with Brissett is a lot to ask. The Colts have looked a little better on offense lately and while I don't think they win this one, I'm glad to get more than a TD as I expect Indy to be in this one the whole time.

 

[OnTheHop]

Well, that was a real punch in the nuts. This whole NFL season has been a real punch in the nuts.

10/19/17 (22-30-1, -13.1)

Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-105), 1 unit

 

[rtran]

last week was very rough for players

 

[indiana]

Hop.........on them with you.........BOL this weekend.........indy

 

[OnTheHop]

Rtran and Indy....appreciate both of you checking in. Thanks!

 

[OnTheHop]

10/22/2017 (22-31-1, -14.15u)

Well, the year of "I was on the right side but lost" combined with "this guy couldn't pick an NFL game if it was stuck in his nose" continues. Adjusting a few things this week. Hopefully that helps. For those of you that have been smart enough to fade my steaming pile of shit picks each week, tread lightly. As always, appreciate those that have checked in and offered feedback.

Minnesota Vikings -5 (-110), 1 unit: Played this one earlier in the week and shockingly the line moved against me. Anyway, I just don't see how the Ravens patchwork O line contains the Vikings D line. Keenum has been good enough to win games and with the home crowd sensing a division win (due to the win last week and the Rodgers injury) is very much in their grasp, look for the Vikings to get it done today.

Buffalo Bills -3 (-105), 2 units: Guess who has the second best (adjusted) D in the NFL? Guess who is coming off a bye and playing at home for the first time in a month? Guess who is playing a team that has dropped two stinky turds on the road? Guess whose fans like to have sex in the parking lot before games?

Green Bay Packers +4 (-110), 1 unit: Missed the best number on this but I just don't trust Brees and the Saints to give that many on the road. Look for the Pack to control the clock and manage the game with Jones and with Hundley throwing short, quick passes. Very few if any teams looked better than the Saints last week and in the NFL, you know what that means.

San Francisco 49ers +7 (-120), 1 unit: People are going to lose in the late games. This is the most obvious "Joe Public" late game pick where the world will be loading up on Dallas. The Niners have been in every game this year and while their offense doesn't stack up with the Cowboys their defense does and I think they're in the game the whole way.

Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (-115), 1 unit: Let me get this straight....the Falcons lost at home last week to the Dolphins. Now, they're going to New England to face the public's favorite team led by the World's Greatest QB and they're only getting 3.5? Should be a shootout with two great offenses facing two bad defenses. What's the difference? First, the Falcons can run the ball. Second, motivation. Atlanta got caught looking ahead last week in a revenge spot. I like the motivated team getting more than a FG.

 

[HacheMan]

Best of luck OTH

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and good luck today....

 

[OnTheHop]

Chicago Bears +3 (-115), 1 unit: Weather just shifted dramatically here. Cold, windy, rainy. Not sure how Carolina moves the ball. Bears have been very good at home and with Keuchly out I like their chances.

Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115), 1 unit: This game finally hit a number that I can’t avoid. I may be wrong but at this number it has to be a play for me.

 

[OnTheHop]

​Seattle Seahawks/New York Giants 2H o19.5 (-115), 1/2 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

Atlanta Falcons +3 (-115), 1.5 units: Misread the market on this. Locked in 3.5 earlier (shown above) but thought it would continue to climb throughout the day or as people chased. Nope. Looks like it's going to 2.5. I'm going to take the 3 while it's still available.

 

[OnTheHop]

Washington Redskins +5 (-110), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

Last week actually felt much better. The mistake was loving the Falcons. At least my reads are getting better from an overall perspective. I’m bringing a few other factors into play now as well so hopefully things start to change. I want to be really clear, I’m not complaining. These aren’t bad beats for the most part (ok, the Colts a few weeks ago sucked). I’m just trying to give info so that those that are fading my picks know if/when to stop.

10/26/2017 (26-36-2, -16.85u)

Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110), 1 unit

 

[OnTheHop]

Interesting card this week. Previously I would have forced some plays, tried not to do that this week. May look for some in game opportunities instead.

10/29/2017 (27-36-2, -15.85u)

Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 (-115), 1 unit: If nothing else it looks like I'm on the right side of the line movement. Still don't trust the Pats D even after they showed me I was wrong last week. Chargers could easily be 5-2 and I think they hang with New England and have a shot at the end.

New York Jets +7 (-115), 1 unit: This finally got to a point where I could not ignore it. The Falcons and specifically their offense just should not be laying a TD on the road to anyone. The Jets have been surprisingly respectable at home and I expect that to continue today.

​New Orleans Saints -1.5/Washington Redskins +9.5 (-110), 2 units

 

[OnTheHop]

New Orleans Saints 2H -3 (-110), 1/2 unit