Oldman's 3* Pick For Tuesday 5/30/06

[oldmanTED]

This series between Dallas and Phoenix has certainly changed since the Game 1 shoot out won by the Suns in Dallas 121-118. What's been the key changes. First, the loss of Raja Bell has made the Suns offense very inconsistent both on the break and from behind the arc as when Nash looks to swing the ball, he is missing one quality 3 point shooter. Second, the loss of Bell has made the bench depth of Phoenix very short as Barbosa starts in place of Bell leaving only House and Jones contributing little. Nash has to play more minutes and doesn't get his usual length of breaks. The other 4 starters are having to play more minutes as well. Third, the Suns tried a defensive adjustment in Game 3 putting Marion on Nowitzki and Thomas on Howard. Fourth, the depth of the Mavericks is beginning to show with Stackhouse, Griffin and most importantly Diop keeps the pressure on the Suns. In Game 2, one which we lost due to Nash putting in a meaningless layup at the end of the game, Avery Johnson didn't figure out that having Van Horn starting for long minutes at center adds little to the Mavs, particularly on the defensive end. Once he inserted Diop, Dallas made stops and began to pull clear. In Game 3, Diop was an even greater presence. As long as he gets 25 to 30 minutes, he clogs up the middle for the Suns to drive and either blocks or alters shots making it tougher for the Suns to score. The result has been back to back 7 point wins by the Mavs 105-98 and 95-88. The linesmakers continue to try an adjust with this series flow, but are caught, particularly on the total, with having started with a very high number, which only went higher after the first game. Currently, Dallas has a clear edge, but it's the total that presents greater value in my opinion. If at all, believe only one of these teams reaches 100 tonight, probably neither. I had this originally posted as a 2* play, but feel so strongly about this play, I am increasing this to a 3* play. I realize that this will be the third 3* play in less then a week, but really still just believe five for the entire wagering year. Just happens they have come all at once currently. Hence,

3* Dallas/Phoenix Under 213.5 (-110)(CRIS)

Year To Date Record: 22-22 (+2.34)

Good Luck All.

Edited to upgrade play from a 2* to a 3* play.

 

[mhk]

Dead on OMT, i'm with you..

 

[oldmanTED]

Dead on OMT, i'm with you..

Thank you. Note the edit to increase this to a 3* play. Feel very strongly about this play. Nice to have you along. Enjoy the game.

 

[ESQAJM]

OT: Are you reading tomorrows newspaper again?
Missed your last 2 3* games. I'll be with you tonight. I hope I won't be the kiss of death.
ESQAJM

 

[oldmanTED]

OT: Are you reading tomorrows newspaper again?
Missed your last 2 3* games. I'll be with you tonight. I hope I won't be the kiss of death.
ESQAJM

ESQAJM:

I like your humor. No kiss of death. Looking for the hat trick and third time will be a charm. Enjoy!

 

[amado21]

raja bell will play that wont affect the results of your pick?

 

[HNYLOC]

Garretson and Salvatore are reffing.. both "UND" type of refs.. GL

 

[oldmanTED]

PLAYOFFS


DALLAS AT PHOENIX - PROBABLE STARTING LINEUPS


   DALLAS                                           PHOENIX                                      

F  Josh Howard                                   F  Tim Thomas                                   
F  Dirk Nowitzki                                 F  Shawn Marion                                 
C  Keith Van Horn                                C  Boris Diaw                                   
G  Jason Terry                                   G  Steve Nash                                   
G  Devin Harris                                  G  Raja Bell                                    

OFFICIALS: Ron Garretson
           Tom Washington
           Bennett Salvatore

 

[Bennyshoe]

Where's the love for OMT?? Just had to say congrats on your second 3* play winning in a row. Rather easy I should say also.

Hope something else jumps out for you and we see another rare 3* this postseason

 

[WharfRat+]

As I stated last night...3* = LOCK CITY!!!!

thanks OMT!!

 

[Rawpimple]

OMT Great call again!!!


arty: arty: arty:

 

[Journeyman]

Outstanding Ted!

 

[amado21]

GREAT GREAT CALL:thumbsup2:

 

[StuntDouble1]

Nicely done Ted...wish I saw your pick earlier..would ve cashed with you. Good write up also.

 

[ESQAJM]

OT: Nice job. I finally was able to coattail you and it was an easy winner.

I have another thought for you. If you check your record in the NBA you will see that it is:
3-0 in the 3* games
19-22 in the other games

Why waste your time betting the other games? That's a rhetorical question. The answer is that you are a gambling junkie and need the action like all of us.
I'm waiting for your next 3*. Thanks.
ESQAJM

 

[919]

A "gambling junkie" doesn't have a whopping 44 NBA wagers (assuming those numbers are correct)....OMT is selective, and win or lose he does it with class.

 

[HarryCaray]

Nice call Ted!!! :toast: :toast:

 

[oldmanTED]

Garretson and Salvatore are reffing.. both "UND" type of refs.. GL

Very sharp observation.

 

[oldmanTED]

Where's the love for OMT?? Just had to say congrats on your second 3* play winning in a row. Rather easy I should say also.

Hope something else jumps out for you and we see another rare 3* this postseason

Bennyshoe:

Thank you. Appreciate the love. There are still many games left to play in the playoffs and hopefully I will find others worthy of a play. Nothing for tomorrow, however, as the lines are extremely tight on the Miami/Detroit side and total. Perhaps on Thursday.

 

[oldmanTED]

As I stated last night...3* = LOCK CITY!!!!

thanks OMT!!

WharfRat:

Just glad to have a nice easy winner tonight. Hopefully, more in the future.