Oddsmaker's Martingale Tester Thread

[oddsmaker]

Doesn't look like my first play of the day is going to hit, currently it's at 4-2, total at six. My second play of the day will be a double up.

I like the under 10.5 for the Colorado/Rockies game.

The under is 8-0 LA's last 8 Wednesday games.
The under is 10-1 in Colorado's last 11 Wednesday games too.

The total has gone over the past two games these two teams have played however I don't see three in a row.

The pitching staff is okay. Nothing amazing. A combined era of 8. I expect a lot of fly balls, quick outs, and sac bunts.

Straight Wager 07/23/08 14:59 ET
bet 120.00 to win 109.09 Result: Pending
LA(Dodgers) Kuroda
Colorado(Rockies) Rusch 07/23/08(15:05 ET)
Under 10.5

 

[oddsmaker]

Third play of the day:

Baltimore/Toronto Over 8

The over has hit 9 out of 10 times these two teams have played head to head.

The combined era of the to pitches is 8ish using the last 3 games average.

The last two games they've had a total of 18 and 11.

Straight Wager 07/23/08 16:11 ET
bet 240.00 to win 200.00 Result: Pending
Toronto(BlueJays) Burnett
Baltimore(Orioles) Guthrie 07/23/08(19:05 ET)
Over 8 (-120)

 

[oddsmaker]

Well lost the first. Hit the second. Doubled up the second one thinking it wouldn't hit to. Now I got a chase bet out on the over for the Baltimore game. So far 1-1. Let's hope the last hits.

 

[oddsmaker]

45 on under 9 Cubs/Arizona

 

[TheBaron+]

Damn, missed out on this one.

 

[oddsmaker]

It's looking like my 240 on the over for the Baltimore game will be refunded due to incomplete innings according to book rules since the game is suspended. Or else I hope: "When wagering on total runs or run lines, the game must go the regulation 9 innings, or 8.5 innings if the home team is leading, otherwise it will constitute a "No Action" wager, and all money will be credited accordingly."

That is an answered prayer, seeing as how I don't think it wasn't going to hit the over.

I'll update as to if they refund my wager or not. I think they will.

Now lets hope the under hits in the Cubs game.

Also, I'm making a new rule. I can not double up on a game until the previous bet is complete.

 

[oddsmaker]

Well for the day I went 1 Win, 1 Push, and 1 Loss.

Straight Wager 07/23/08 21:33 ET
bet 45.00 to win 39.13 Result: Wager Lost
Chicago(Cubs) Lilly 10
Arizona(Diamondbacks) Davis 6 07/23/08(21:40 ET)
Under 9 (-115)

Straight Wager 07/23/08 16:11 ET
bet 240.00 to win 200.00 (paid 240.0) Result: No Action
Toronto(BlueJays) Burnett No Action
Baltimore(Orioles) Guthrie 07/23/08(19:05 ET)
Over 8 (-120)


Straight Wager 07/23/08 14:59 ET
bet 120.00 to win 109.09 (paid 229.09) Result: Wager Won
LA(Dodgers) Kuroda 3
Colorado(Rockies) Rusch 5 07/23/08(15:05 ET)
Under 10.5

Straight Wager 07/23/08 01:32 ET
bet 60.00 to win 52.17 Result: Wager Lost
Oakland(Athletics) GSmith 3
TampaBay(DevilRays) Shields 4 07/23/08(12:40 ET)
Over 7.5 (-115)


for the day 1W-2L-1P
since the start of this thread 5W-2L-1P

+4.09 profit for the day
+213.19 overall profit since start

 

[oddsmaker]

Day 4

Well, Day 3 wasn't the best but it was still a profitable day; would have made more working at Burger King for an hour than capping Day 3. Oh well, let's get it today. As long as the day ends in the green and not red I can't complain.

For the first play of the day I'm going with the Philly/Mets game under 9.5. The line has dropped already at many books to 9. I got it at 9.5.

In the last 8 starts Moyers has had 7 unders.
Also, the under is 8-2 out of the last 10 home games for the mets.

Moyer has a 2.75 era for his last 3 games with a 1.17 whip.
Perez has a 1.42 era in the last 3 games with a 1.21 whip.

9.5 holds a lot of value.

The last time Moyer started while playing the Mets was on 4/19 and 4/8. Both games hit the under (10 and 9). He only gave up 2 ER in each game.

The last time Perez met the mets he had 7 strike outs.

Straight Wager 07/24/08 03:04 ET
bet 45.00 to win 39.13 Result: Pending
Philadelphia(Phillies) Moyer
NewYork(Mets) OlPerez 07/24/08(12:10 ET)
Under 9.5 (-115)

 

[oddsmaker]

Looking good so far!

 

[oddsmaker]

Well, I'm pretty confident my under 9.5 will hit from my first play.

Here is my second play today.

Over 7.5 National/Giants Game

In the past 10 games for the nationals the over has hit 8 times.
In the past 10 games for the San Fran the over has hit 7 times.

The pitching staff is okay.

Redding has a 4.2ish era away from home.
Cain has a 5.0ish era at home during the day.

 

[TheBaron+]

Great start, lets keep rollin.

 

[oddsmaker]

Great start, lets keep rollin.

<table><tbody><tr><td width="220">Straight Wager</td> <td>07/24/08 13:48 ET</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="220"> bet 45.00 to win 40.91 </td> <td>Result: Pending</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table><tbody><tr><td width="220"> Washington(Nationals) Redding
SanFrancisco(Giants) Cain </td> <td> 07/24/08(15:45 ET)
Over 7.5</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[oddsmaker]

1-0 so far today

+39.13 for the day

:finger:

 

[nikeairx]

how does this work, if u lose 1 play do u polay it again till it wins?? or its jsut regular picking

 

[oddsmaker]

how does this work, if u lose 1 play do u polay it again till it wins?? or its jsut regular picking

A lot of people use the martingale system on even/odds, black/red on the Roulette table..

The longest streak of losses I've had for betting totals is 3.

So what I'm doing is simple.

Bet 45, 60, or 80 on the first game. If it looses double up on the second total pick of the day. If that looses double up.

It sounds easy and "safe" at first but actually it's a very dangerous system; however, since I've never lost more than 3 totals in a row I feel okay doing it.

So since my first game today hit. I'll bet the National total at 45, 60, or 80, and if looses I'll cap a late game tonight or early game tomorrow with a bet at 90, 120, or 160..

It's a dangerous system and you need to have two things: balls to double up when loosing, and a big bank roll.

 

[oddsmaker]

how does this work, if u lose 1 play do u polay it again till it wins?? or its jsut regular picking

To better answer you question I cap games like normal or "regular picking" but if my last pick was a looser then I'll double up my bet. That way I'm always making a profit, recovering from my last wager that lost, while making a profit still.

 

[oddsmaker]

Doesn't look like the SF/WAS game is going to hit. Oh well, let's move on and keep on keeping on. We've got one more game today so let's make the most if it.

I'm torn between the over for the Pitt game (10.5) or a home team total of Over 8 for the St. Louis Cards.

I'm going with the Cards over 8.

Wellemeyer has an ERA of 6.11 in his last 3 starts. Sheets has a 3.24 ERA in the last 3 games. During the last 3 starts for both of these pitchers the over has hit 5 out of 6 times.

Also the under hasn't hit more than 3 times in a row for MIL since 5-31-08.

The last time the Cards had a series with MIL was 5/09-5/12. The last two games of the series went over.

Straight Wager 07/24/08 16:52 ET
bet 90.00 to win 75.00 Result: Pending
Milwaukee(Brewers) Sheets
StLouis(Cardinals) Wellemeyer 07/24/08(20:15 ET)
Over 8 (-120)

 

[oddsmaker]

Let's get this over!

 

[TheBaron+]

Brutal game.

 

[oddsmaker]

Straight Wager 07/24/08 16:52 ET
bet 90.00 to win 75.00 Result: Wager Lost
Milwaukee(Brewers) Sheets 4
StLouis(Cardinals) Wellemeyer 3 07/24/08(20:15 ET)
Over 8 (-120)


Straight Wager 07/24/08 13:48 ET
bet 45.00 to win 40.91 Result: Wager Lost
Washington(Nationals) Redding 0
SanFrancisco(Giants) Cain 1 07/24/08(15:45 ET)
Over 7.5


Straight Wager 07/24/08 03:04 ET
bet 45.00 to win 39.13 (paid 84.13) Result: Wager Won
Philadelphia(Phillies) Moyer 1
NewYork(Mets) OlPerez 3 07/24/08(12:10 ET)
Under 9.5 (-115)



Day record:

1 Win
2 Losses

-95.87 for the day
+117.32 since the start


Overall Record:

6W-4L-1P

Today wasn't the best, nor was yesterday. I really think the over shoulda hit in that last game. MIL had plenty of chances early to get some runs with the bases loaded and tons of walks. Oh well, one day at a time.