Sabres are actually living up to expectations so far.lot's of people lost their money today, and I am not saying that anything dodgy went down, but that a lot of people overestimate absences in national teams, and If a gambler gets what I am saying I am taking them half way to the bank. DON"T overstimate such absenses, very few national teams are what you call organic as some, most actually, clubs are where a player out is not only his personal value out, but also the value of him having integrated with the team, his place in the team adding on top of that. National teams are nowhere close to that. Most are very loosely attached collections of individuals and a few in a few out doesn't mess up team chemistry that much. Plus, less importantly but its a consideration too, except from some very top europian clubs, national teams have a vast team bench, so to speak, a talent pool actually where they can draw upon, while clubs do not. Bear also in mind that much more so that clubs the home factor is an incontestable advantage, a pretty much uniform and stable one too, that amounts to close to 15%-20% of a teams advantage, very roughly speaking, and that's like I said uncheangable. A final note on fading home teams with absences is that substitutes, usually talented up and coming players put the extra bit in that the starters probably wouldn't because they are dead serious on and very very thirsty to succeed, and for an away team, even if such a team are the mighty czechs a draw is always a good result. I am not saying they'll be aiming at it, but most of the time they'd be happy with, and if during the game they realise that going up front will be too risky (and football players are no gamblers, they are actually very risk averse) and we 'll open up spaces for counter attacks they 'll play more cautiusly and that opens the doors for the draw wide open.
I ve been honest, since I ve not bet the afforementioned game, but always had a gut feeling that the average joe who had a lot of their money on it would not be satisfied in the end.
But I think all of the above comments are a good strategy, and even if the relative strengths are not almost equalised after the new (or depleted) line ups, the price hysteria when absences are anouncounced will move the odds to a very comfortable cussion to bet.
I ve been honest, since I ve not bet the afforementioned game, but always had a gut feeling that the average joe who had a lot of their money on it would not be satisfied in the end.
But I think all of the above comments are a good strategy, and even if the relative strengths are not almost equalised after the new (or depleted) line ups, the price hysteria when absences are anouncounced will move the odds to a very comfortable cussion to bet.
Very well put Jack. I had not thought about that angle of missing players from a national team. I still believe teams missing players from club teams are put in a bind. Like you mention, national teams are deeper than club teams.
As far as home vs. away teams, I came to the same conclusion as you. That being that visiting teams are sometimes happy with a draw if put in that position late. Look at the Czech team today. When Ireland went up 1-0 it didn't take long for the Czech team to put in an equalizer. That would tell me they had the talent and motivation to even things up.
As far as home vs. away teams, I came to the same conclusion as you. That being that visiting teams are sometimes happy with a draw if put in that position late. Look at the Czech team today. When Ireland went up 1-0 it didn't take long for the Czech team to put in an equalizer. That would tell me they had the talent and motivation to even things up.
