Hi. I like to do things with a mechanical bent especially with o/u. so for the NFL season I took the top 10 scoring teams and said when they play each other I want to bet over. I took the top 10 defensive teams and said when they play each other I want to bet under. I back checked last year. the top 10 offensive (pts scored) were 16-3. the top ten defensive(points given up) were 17-7. I realize that some teams will be in and out of the top 10 catogories and the 33-10 might be something like 28-15 but even so that woudnt be too bad. So what am I missing. I dont havetime to cap like ace-ace. my baseball systems are similar and have doubled account size since may 15. so any thoughts would be appreciated if they are constructive. i am planning on posting games as they occur duringthe season. thanks for any thoughts heart222
Heart,,,
great points,,, my suggestion would be to to do 2 things,,,, First,,, Only Consider the TOP7 in that Grouping of 10 and see where your #s fall,,
also consider EAST vs EAST and WEST vs WEST to see how Teams from their Own Divisons Take one another more seriously,,,,
Good luck,,, and I look forward to seeing how this plays out,,,
tater
great points,,, my suggestion would be to to do 2 things,,,, First,,, Only Consider the TOP7 in that Grouping of 10 and see where your #s fall,,
also consider EAST vs EAST and WEST vs WEST to see how Teams from their Own Divisons Take one another more seriously,,,,
Good luck,,, and I look forward to seeing how this plays out,,,
tater
heart222 said:
The problem here is with your use of the Top 10's AFTER the fact. What do you do in Week #1? In Week #2, you are basing your Top 10 on one game? In order to get a valid read, you need to backtrack using the stats available at the time of the plays. The betting lines are based on knowledge available at the time of the play. Your 28-15 might become 21-22 real fast.
heart222:
Some additional things for you to consider. Since you are looking at points as your means of determining the top 5 to 10 offensive and defensive teams, there will come times when one or both teams may fall into one or both of the categories. Points scored and allowed are but one statistic in determining strength of offenses and defenses. When you have match-ups of teams, more often then not, the team with the better defense will dictate the manner in which the game will be controlled and played. Realize you are looking for a "mechancal type" approach and might be fortunate enough to have a winning season using points, but over the long haul, finding teams which match up both offensively superior to defensively inferior opponents or defensively superior teams matched against offensively inferior opponents will lead you to better results in totals. If you choose to use offensive teams to go over when matched against each other and defensive teams to go under when matched against each other, consider looking beyond just points scored or given. As the season progresses, solid statistical information begins to develop that provides which teams are truly the offensive and defensive powerhouses. Using those teams will equate to more successful results.
Some additional things for you to consider. Since you are looking at points as your means of determining the top 5 to 10 offensive and defensive teams, there will come times when one or both teams may fall into one or both of the categories. Points scored and allowed are but one statistic in determining strength of offenses and defenses. When you have match-ups of teams, more often then not, the team with the better defense will dictate the manner in which the game will be controlled and played. Realize you are looking for a "mechancal type" approach and might be fortunate enough to have a winning season using points, but over the long haul, finding teams which match up both offensively superior to defensively inferior opponents or defensively superior teams matched against offensively inferior opponents will lead you to better results in totals. If you choose to use offensive teams to go over when matched against each other and defensive teams to go under when matched against each other, consider looking beyond just points scored or given. As the season progresses, solid statistical information begins to develop that provides which teams are truly the offensive and defensive powerhouses. Using those teams will equate to more successful results.
