Notts and Hertogenbosch WTA

[croaker]

I'll have go at guessing some tennis being played on a paddock.

I'm assuming that the change in surface won't make too much difference to the women. Although it may help the big servers a little.

I've done a bit more maths on betting and will stick with my bet sizing. Using bet sizing to win x amount is equivalent to using kelly but assuming you only take bets with a fixed edge or EV%.


So.......


Tonight's matches



Osaka vs Vickery

I think this will be closer the lines indicate but still with Osaka winning.

So pass, probably a 6-4, 6-3 match with no upside.

Giorgi vs Jakupovic


Should be easy win for Giorgi.

Adding

Giorgi -1.5 sets -179


Lapko vs Fett

This should be an easy win for Lapko, provided she can handle the surface, good value line.

Adding Lapko ML -113


Frech vs Saisai

I would normall take Saisai here but she has been struggling with what looks lie a hammy problem, she ahs been starting the matches OK but a after a couple of games she seems to have problems with length. She beat essentially a club player yesterday but it took her 3 sets, and she didn't try to run much for any tough returns. Frech will be tougher and should win if she can keep the ball in play.

Possible fade but I'm passing.



Cumulative record brought froward from RG Thread

29-16

+901 +13.1% ROI

BOL

 

[croaker]

Lapko got the win but Giorgi played poorly and ended up going down 0-2.

Giorgi struggled with Jakupovic's serve and made too many UFE's. Especially on her own serve. A lot of her misses weren't even close.

Giorgi played so poorly it was difficult to get a line on how well Jakupovic was playing, but she served very well and hit some nice winners.

Record now

30-17

+822 +11.5% ROI

 

[croaker]

Tonight's matches

Nottingham

Barty vs Voegele

Barty is a significantly better player also plays well on grass while Voegel doesn't.

Adding

Barty -1.5 sets -205

Has come in a bit since the open.

Stosur vs Diyas

I like Diyas here the line moved out to -153 before dropping back to now -170, I'll wait and see if Stosur gets any betting support before adding.

I may add if Diyas line moves out closer to start of match.

Nara vs Konta

Konta is pretty short and this is one match I haven't been able to get a good handle on what the line should be. Konta should win comfortably but will pass.

Royg vs Buza

This looks like a mismatch with very good value for Buza at the odds.

Adding

Buza ML -188


Hertogenbosch

Stollar vs Zhang

Stollar beat Zhang comfortably on clay a couple of weeks ago, but Zhang didn't look fully engaged.

After losing to Putintseva after being up 4-0 in the 2nd in Paris she should be putting in full effort for the entire match. I would only bet this match for entertainment.

Zhang did beat Buza and Osaka in May and was crushing Putintseva, however Stollar has already had 4 matches on grass so she will be used to the surface whereas for Zhang not so much. Maybe value on Stollar.


Sabalenka vs Vondrousova

The numbers all indicate that Saba should win this comfortably but the lines say otherwise.

Vondrousova has 2-0 H2H advantage but not on grass/ Saba has good record on grass and has a big serve which could be a big advantage so I will go with Saba for this one.

Adding Saba ML +120

Vikhlyantseva vs Bertens

Bertens stats are way better than Vikhlyantseva's except that she hasn't won on grass for 2 years. No H2H info.

Adding Bertens based on the huge statistical advantage she holds.

If this was on clay or hard court Bertens line would be around -500, instead of -160.

Adding Bertens ML -160


BOL

 

[asiansdude]

Sweeeep

Thankyou)(&

 

[croaker]

Thanks asiansdude, a couple of the games were nailbiters but the girls all managed to find a way to pull off the win.

The rally's seem to be a lot shorter on grass than clay and the matches are over a lot sooner. So I managed to watch a few of them.

Buza

The Buza match was pretty even, and was a essentially coin flip at the end. Buza had 2 match points she couldn't convert and was on the wrong side of a couple of very close line calls. She ended up down 3-5 in the 3rd set tie break before closing it out 7-5.

Buza had the edge in the game but it was a lot closer than I expected.

Saba

Saba put in her customary bi-polar performance. She got bagelled in the first set but didn't give up. Vondrousova played pretty well and made some great returns at crucial times and ended up serving for the match in the 2nd.

Saba kept fighting and managed to find some form towards the end of the 2nd set And after being down 1-3 in the 3rd, cruised home to take it 6-3.

Betrtens

Bertens but didn't do it easily, but apart from one stretch, where she lost 5 games in a row, she seemed to have a small edge throughout the match
and finally managed to get finally managed to get a win on grass.

Barty

This game went as expected. No sweating required.

So record now.

34-17

+1222 +15.7% ROI


Regarding players switching from clay to grass, and looking at the the odds vs performance. The odds makers seem to take performance on grass into account when setting the initial lines. But as there are so few games played on grass the sample size will be small and the numbers will not be that reliable. The change in surface definitely has an impact on performance but it doesn't seem to be as big as the odds makers assume.

The better players having their first game on the surface seemed to take a little while to adjust to the speed and the bounce but all got better as the match went on.

For future matches I will use the average of the odds from the opening lines and my non-grass adjusted estimate of the odds to calculates the odds for decision making.

 

[croaker]

I was just running through the next lost of matches and this one jumped out.

Jakupovic vs Frech

Frech struggled to beat a one legged Saisai and Jakupovic played good against a two legged Giorgi in the first set when Giorgi was competing.

Both have played on the surface and have enough data points against similar level of opposition for me to take a punt on this.

I think the odds makers have set this based on Frech's statistically significant [but not practically relevant based on quick review of data and recent grass play] superior stats on grass and they both have a similar ranking 118 vs 119.

This is first match I've seen where I think I understand the maths behind why the line is wrong.

The Jakupovic line jumped in to -102 immediately up on opening 5 hours ago and is still on low limit so has potential to move in more. I'm pretty confident that the current line will beat the closing line.

Obviously not certain but looks like good value.

For this match I'm going to try a new bet, rather than increasing bet sizing, I'm going to place 2 different bets both to win $100.

So adding

Jakpovic ML at -108 to win $100 - risking $100
and Jakupovic -1.5 at +210 to win $50 - risking $24

So total amount bet will be $124 to win either $0, $76 or $150. It is a little more than require to win $100 but easy to place quickly.

My rough and reasonably conservative estimates of the odds are ML .64 and for -1.5 sets .46 c/w the current implied odds of .51 and .31 respectively.


I'll count this as one bet for record keeping.

 

[croaker]

FYI

I just bet Molleker to take a set of Pouille at +140. He's 18 and comfortably beat Struuff 2-1 while dropping only 1 service game over 3 sets and lsoing 1 service point in the 2nd set tiebreak.

Pouille is better than Struuff but will likely drop at least one serve over 2 sets. Or lose more than a point if one of the sets goes to a tb.

He looked like the real deal. And played each point consistently well, no lapses.

Not for record as not WTA, but of interest.

 

[croaker]

Tonight's matches

Buza vs Falconi

Looks like a mismatch, Buza should have walked in last night, hopefully she will improve on that tonight.

Adding Buza -1.5 sets -120

Kudermetova vs Bencic

Even with adjusting Kuders numbers down she still looks like value, but if she can serve close to as well as she played against Kontaveit she should won at least a set here. Bencic will be prepared for a tough match so I prefer the +1.5 over the ML at +193.

Adding Kudermetova +1.5 -130


Van Uytvanck vs Kuzmova

Kuzmova is the hot player but this match will be tougher for Viktoria than her match against Melinkova. So may be a bit of recency bias in the current lines.

I'm pretty sure there is value on Van Uytvanck. I think she should be closer to -300 than -170. But the lines haven't moved since open.

Its one of the later matches so will check the numbers again, and watch to see if the line moves towards my estimate so may add later.

I suspect the difference is explained by the improvement to her stats following the win against the number 170 ranked Melinkova, may not be applicable to her match against van Uytvanck.

BOL

 

[croaker]

Added

Van Uytvanck ML -166

Don't know what happened in the Buza match she jumped out to a 4-1 lead in the first set and seemed to take her foot of the gas, and was able to put back down.

She lost the 2nd set 7-5 with a steady stream of UFE's and DF's. Falconi was happy just to put the ball back in play and waited Buza to hit it into net or outside the line.

3rd set Buza was back to normal currently up 5-2.

Happily Kudermetova got the first set off Bencic 6-2.

 

[croaker]

Kuder and Jakupovic both won. But the Buza and Van Uytvanck lost.

The Jakopovic match went as expected, didn't see Van Uytvanks match but she lost 2-1. Looks like she played poorly in the 3rd set.

So record now.

36-19

+1186 +14.2%

PS

Molleker lost 2-0. Pouille only faced 1 break point for the entire match and looks it was a comfortable win.

 

[croaker]

Tonights matches

Stosur vs Boulter

Value on Stosur at -200

Lapko vs Vekic

Value on Lapko

Looks like a flip priced as a comfortable win for Vekic.

Tough call between +1.5 or ML.

Adding Lapko ML +140

I figure if she gets a set she will probably win the match.

Barty vs Ying Yang

Barty again -1.5, hard to see Duan being competitive.

Adding Barty -1.5 at -200

Stollar vs Riske

Lots of value on Stollar, but she doesn't seem to lose many 1-2 so ML it is.

Adding Stollar +273


Mertens vs Lottner

Lottners most recent loss was against Sharipova, Sabina not Maria, so on that alone I am taking the elite Mertens to win -1.5 sets.

Adding Mertens -1.5 sets at -190

Other matches

Sabalenka vs Tomljanovic

Sabalenka has used her get out of jail free card already for this tournament and Alja is coming off a close will over Kr Pliskova, I favor Saba to win a but will be passing at the current lines, which have it dead even.

Bertens vs Flipkens

The numbers say Berten's by a mile and she now has a recent win on grass. And the line looks reasonably attractive.

However, Flipkens recently beat Bertens and her close win over Vikhylanksa was not encouraging.

Still looking at Watson vs Konta

BOL

 

[varkeyboy]

Any Men's action?

 

[croaker]

Any Men's action?

No, I but I do like Raonic against Berdych and then against either Istomin or Pouille.

He seemed to be carrying an injury before he took his recent break after his loss to Shapo in Madrid. Looks like he has now recovered and seem's to now be playing more consistently. I'm not sure what good odds are for him though.


Lapko

I managed to see nearly all of Lapko's match, she played well in stretches but never really got into a rhythm. Vekic was like a machine played nearly every point with the same focus and intensity, very cool calm and collected. Lapko not so much.

Stollar

Stollar lost the plot towards the end of the 1st after breaking Riske's serve twice and then failing to hold her own serve each time. She never recovered and look like she gave up in the second set.

I see why she struggles after losing the 1st set.

Stosur

Didn't see the match but I suspect Boulter played well and Stosur may not have been at 100%. There was a decent line move on Boulter about an hour out from the match with Stosur's line going out from -200 to -160. Stosurs line came back in a little but ended up at around -167.

So the implied odds for Stosur dropped from around 65% to 60% in a few minutes, similar to a drop in an NFL spread from -4 to -3 prior to kickoff or -5 to -3.5 in an NBA game. When I saw the move I thought about hedging but decided to let the bet play out and see what resulted.

The line movement is consistent with someone having a bit of last minute info about player health/well being and putting down some large bets on Boulter, rather than drifting out. Although the post match narrative is likely to be along the lines of Stosur doesn't like grass.

Boulter just lost to Priscilla Hon on grass.

Barty

Thankfully this went as expected.

Still waiting on Mertens match currently in progress but delayed by rain.

So after going 1-3 last night record now

37-22

+978 + 11%

 

[croaker]

Tonights matches

Vekic vs Barthel

Vekic looks value, line has moved out.

I like Vekic more than the opening line did, also I was impressed with her unemotional cyborg like style of play, makes capping her a lot easier than with the bi-polar players [meaning the ones that play in one of 2 states 1. really well or 2. like crap, but never average].

She was close in the 2nd set against Lapko but Lapko is pretty good and IMO better than Barthels win over Rybarikova.

Barthel holds a 2-0 H2H over Vekic [NB the latest match in Lugano was very close]. So that would explain the good odds on Vekic.

Adding Vekic ML at -148

Barty vs Boulter

Should be the end of the dream for Boulter. Barty should be able to grind out another win.

Pass at the odds.

Jakupovic vs Konta

Konta should walk this.

Pass at the odds.

Osaka vs Buza

After a couple of emotional matches Buza should be back to normal tonight.

I have Osaka around 63% to win the match, the current line has her at 70%.

IMO there seems to be a little value for Buza in the current lines maybe Buza to win a set. She'll also play better with a bit of pace on the ball from Osaka, she struggled with the flat hitting of her last 2 opponents at times.

Adding Buza -1.5 sets at -119

Netherlands

Still waiting on Mertens to complete, evidently she wasn't happy playing in the rain last night and slipped over, complained to the chair and eventually they stopped play. She should come out fired up to complete the -1.5 tonight.

Coco vs Riske

I have this as as close to a flip but Riske didn't look good against Stollar and could have easily lost if Stollar hadn't imploded, so pass.

Kudermetova vs Krunic

I expect this to be similar to Kuders match against Bencic, and Kuders line has dropped quite a bit since open, from +176 to +140

Kuder is serving very well and is tough to break.

Adding Kuder ML at +140

BOL


Also I am taking Raonic ML at -176 with the intention of rolling it onto his semi final match should he win tonight, not counting for record.

 

[varkeyboy]

Is the play Buza or Osaka -1.5? Its confusing.

Great call on Vekic.

 

[croaker]

Kuder

Kuder's line came in prior to the start of the match, possibly as Krunic had heavy bandaging on her serving arm.

Kuder also had a strip bandage on her right deltoid. It looked as if she was carrying a muscle/tendon injury into the match and she seemed to aggravate it near the end of her the second service game when putting a little extra on one of her second serves. After that she needed to have her arm bandaged and have a MTO at the end of the first set. She struggled with her serve and most of her shots on the forehand side, her double handed backhand was still OK, but sadly she wasn't competitive.

Vekic

Won easily as expected, thank you oddsmakers. sharp bettors, arb's and value bettors for the very soft line.

Mertens

After racing out to a 4-2 advantage in the 1st set, Mertens ended up losing badly. She hit a lot of balls into the net which indicates she wasn't handling the surface after the rain. Lottner played pretty well.

Lottner opened at +160 vs Kuzmova, Lottner's numbers from her 2 matches in main draw in Herts would indicate that it would be a very close match. But I still think of her loss to S. Sharipova and suspect she just got lucky getting to play on a dead court that suited her game. A day of sun and she will lose her edge.

Buza

Only saw the start of the match until 2-2 in 1st set but Osaka ended up winning pretty comfortably.

So the last 2 nights have not gone well and my record on grass is now 9-10 -203

So record now.

38-25

+697 +7.4%






Riske's match ended up in a flip. 14-12 to Coco in the 3rd set tie break. Riske almost won when one of Coco's shots was called out, but was over ruled by the chair, and there was another match point where it looked like Coco hot the ball long but it was not called.

And Jakupovic got a early break off Konta.

Flipkens ended up having to play another against Sabalenka, followed by a doubles match where she was partnering Bertens, who she beat in the earlier match. Flipkens beat Saba comfortably 2-0.

More drama than the final 30s of Game 1 of the NBA finals....

I couldn't help myself and put some more money on Milos -1.5 sets at +140

 

[croaker]

Is the play Buza or Osaka -1.5? Its confusing.

Great call on Vekic.

Sorry was a mistype

Should have read Buza +1.5, Osaka -1.5 would have been nice.

 

[croaker]

Tonight's semi final matches

Barty vs Osaka

I have this as a flip with slip edge to Barty.

This is priced this as an easy win for Barty, so some value on Osaka.

May add something later.

Konta vs Vekic

Priced as an easy win for Konta, I agree but maybe some value on Vekic but low probability of hitting so pass.


Coco vs Krunic

Priced as easy win for Coco similar to Konta match so pass.

Flipkens vs Kuzmova

Flipkens went 3-0 yesterday, she's priced as an easy winner. I have it the other way around.

I think Kuzmova wins this maybe 2-1 so

Adding Kuzmova ML +126

BOL

Birmingham qualifying starts tonight.

 

[croaker]

I thought Kuzmova was going to get there when up 4-1 in the 3rd set but she somehow managed to lose 5 games in a row.

If anything Kuzmova looked the more tired of the two towards the end of match. She was cruising when she was hitting her first serves, but struggled on 2nd.

Gutsy win by Flipkens.

So record now

38-26

+611 +6.5%

On grass my record is:

9-11 -290 -11.1%

vs

25-15 +901 +13% on clay

Also the oddsmakers seem to have been capping the matches better on grass than clay, NB sample sizes are low.

The Mertens and Stosur losses had the biggest impact totalling -$290.

After watching a lot of the grass matches my thoughts are

Court dampness can affect the bounce.
There seem to be a number of bounces that defy logic and physics for a flat surface where players completely miss the ball.
Getting a high %age of 1st serves in gives the server a bigger advantage than on clay.


Taking this into account for the last 2 matches

Krunic vs Flipkens

I have Krunic winning a close match.

Krunic opened at +129 and came down to -101 within 5 minutes of open.

Adding Krunic at -109

Barty vs Konta

I have Barty winning a close match.

Adding Barty ML at -131

Line was at -125 when I went to out bet on but between entering the win amount and the time I pressed place bet it had moved in to -131.

I guess pinny just increased the limits.

BOL

 

[croaker]

Krunic got there in 3 after dropping the 1st.

Both players felt the pressure trying to get a rare WTA tourney win.

Flipkens served for the match and tightened up considerably, and she really looked broken after she failed to close out the match in the 2nd set. Krunic smelt blood and never looked back.

Barty managed to get the win, in 3 sets as well.

So nice to finish with a couple of wins.

Record after end of Notts and Herts.

40-26

+811 +8.4%