North Texas vs Arkansas State 10/29/2011

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Arkansas State is a heavy favorite winning 85% of simulations over North Texas. Ryan Aplin is averaging 274 passing yards and 1.9 TDs per simulation and Frankie Jackson is projected for 46 rushing yards and a 50% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 15% of simulations where North Texas wins, Derek Thompson averages 1.67 TD passes vs 0.71 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.9 TDs to 0.87 interceptions. Lance Dunbar averages 136 rushing yards and 1.18 rushing TDs when North Texas wins and 122 yards and 0.63 TDs in losses. Arkansas State has a 36% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 93% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is ARKST -14.5

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