North Carolina vs Virginia 11/15/2012

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North Carolina is a solid favorite with a 65% chance to beat Virginia. Giovani Bernard is projected for 99 rushing yards and a 68% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 35% of simulations where Virginia wins, Phillip Sims averages 2.77 TD passes vs 0.6 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.42 TDs to 0.85 interceptions. Kevin Parks averages 84 rushing yards and 0.81 rushing TDs when Virginia wins and 76 yards and 0.48 TDs in losses. North Carolina has a 39% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 76% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is VA +3.5
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