Nice day in college today going 4-0, still looking at tomorrow, will have any plays up in the morning.
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Gold Sheet NFL
INDIANAPOLIS by 8 over Tennessee
OAKLAND by 16 over Buffalo
UNDER 42 total points in the Washington-N.Y. Giants game
Denver 21 - JACKSONVILLE 16-Jacksonville defense a force, and so the Jags might be in AFC playoff race for a good while TY. Still, their offense (225 total yds., two Leftwich ints.) often leaves much to be desired. So, even off their big win vs. AFC West rival K.C., will side with more offensively-competent Denver in the 2004 season, which should favor top passers more than LY. The mobile Plummer now 10-2 SU as a Bronco starter, while the huge Leftwich often hassled in pocket. (99-JACKSONVILLE -9 27-24...SR: Denver 3-2)
BALTIMORE 19 - Pittsburgh 17-Baltimore 4-1-2 as home fav. LY, but the home game the Ravens forgot to cover was the one vs. Pittsburgh. Since QB Bulger can't be trusted to scare the Steeler defense enough, it's hard to lay substantial points with Balt. vs. foe that has covered 5 of last 6 in series. Unless QB Maddox comes apart under Raven pressure, his WRs own big edge over Balt. counterparts, even with Deion in secondary. Pittsburgh defense controlled Jamal Lewis LY (183 YR in 2 meetings). (03-PITT 34-Balt. 15...P.21-17 P.33/98 B.23/88 P.21/29/0/241 B.22/43/1/143 P.1 B.1)
(03-BALT. 13-Pitt 10 (OT)...B.14-9 B.35/123 P.27/56 P.15/29/3/158
B.16/27/1/156 B.1 P.2)
DETROIT 27 - Houston 19-Young teams tend to play much better at home, so best go with youthful Lions, whose budding, speedy offense seems perfectly suited for the great indoors at Ford Field. Houston pass rush inconsistent, and secondary being retooled a bit, so youthful speed of WR Roy Williams & RB Kevin Jones figure to produce a few long gainers. PK Hanson nearly automatic indoors, while Texans gave up 26 ppg away LY. First meeting of top two QBs taken in 2002 draft-David Carr first overall & Joey Harrington third (Julius Peppers went in between). (FIRST MEETING)
***Indianapolis 27 - TENNESSEE 19-Prefer to take any points with potent Indy, desperate to avoid killer 0-2 start (does any team have a tougher first 2 games?), even with Titans' double-revenge motive. Colts better balanced on offense (E. James 142 YR at N.E.), especially if Tenn.'s budding star RB C. Brown (100 yds. in 1st H at Miami) not 100% due to tweaked ankle. If Dungy's defense can blanket WR Mason, the excellent McNair will be forced to chip away vs. lesser targets. Will Titans miss PK Nedney? (03-INDY 33-Tenn. 7...I.20-14 I.34/127 T.19/53 T.22/34/1/183 I.14/21/0/164
GREEN BAY 27 - Chicago 10-Brett Favre has enjoyed inordinate career success vs. Chicago (including winning & covering last 7 meetings). While Bears' offense has a long way to go (Grossman 2 ints. in opener), Lovie Smith has lots of ideas in mind for his speed-oriented defense, including the addition of DE Ogunleye (15 sacks LY w/Miami) & rookie DT T. Harris of Oklahoma. Skeptics, however, say the quicker unit will be vulnerable to pounding offenses, which the Packers intend to be with Ahman Green. Chicago only 4-12 vs. spread last 16 away; 11-5 "under" last 16 on road. (03-G. Bay 38-CHI. 23...C.23-20 G.25/187 C.28/181 G.22/31/1/193 C.25/44/2/180 G.0 C.0) (03-G. BAY 34-Chi. 21...G.17-13 G.38/97 C.20/44 C.17/40/3/231 G.22/33/1/210 G.0 C.2) (03-Green Bay -4 38-23, GREEN BAY -7 34-21...SR: Chicago 84-77-6)
***UNDER THE TOTAL Washington 19 - NY GIANTS 13-"Under" is first choice with Joe Gibbs' safety-first offense and N.Y.'s self-destructing offense (Kurt Warner no ints., but 2 fumbles last week; 1 lost). But Washington hardly a margin team, so oddsmakers asking nearly the max to win by a trey. But Gibbs, Portis & Co. the more reliable entity, especially with head-hunting LB LaVar Arrington keeping Warner nervous. (03-Giants 24-WAS. 21 (OT)...25-25 N.31/129 W.22/124 W.23/45/1/332 N.24/39/0/270 N.0 W.0) (03-Wash. 20-GIANTS 7...W.20-15 W.48/150 N.23/120 W.13/19/0/138 N.12/25/1/100 W.0 N.2) (03-NY Giants +2 24-21 (OT), Washington +3 20-7...SR: NY Giants 81-59-4)
NEW ORLEANS 20 - San Francisco 17-Despite all the preseason criticism, S.F. was not as "horseshoe" as everyone thought it would be in the opener, easily out-gaining Atlanta, holding the Falcons to just over 200 total yards, and nearly sending the game into OT. Niners built-for-speed defense held the somewhat rusty Mike Vick to 10 YR, 163 YP, and picked up 4 sacks, while Tim Rattay (La. Tech) had 2 TDP & new No. 1 WR C. Wilson was 7 for 94. (02-NEW
ORLEANS -1' 35-27...SR: San Francisco 45-19-2)
ATLANTA 27 - St. Louis 20-Now that Mike Vick has a full, healthy game under his belt, will side with enthusiastic Falcs in Jim Mora Jr.'s home debut. Atlanta secondary leaves a lot to be desired. But so do the road performances of still-learning St. Louis QB Marc Bulger, who tied for the lead in ints. LY with 22). He'll hit a few good plays, but also be hurried by Mora's frequent blitzes. Vick DNP in LY's game. (03-ST. LOUIS 36-Atl. 0...S.26-9 S.31/119 A.21/73 S.24/35/2/377 A.12/28/2/136 S.1 A.2) (03-ST. LOUIS -11 36-0...SR: St. Louis 46-23-2)
KANSAS CITY 31 - Carolina 20-Carolina was the "top dog" LY in the NFL, going 7-1 getting points, including the Panthers' near-victory in the Super Bowl. But this is this year, and there is no OL better prepared to deal with Carolina's ferocious front four than K.C.'s quick group. And, as N.E. showed LY in the Super Bowl, several of the Panther DBs can be picked on. After opening loss at Denver, Gunther Cunningham's defenders eager to show they
appreciate his new simpler, sounder, more aggressive schemes. Chiefs "over" 26-12-1 last 39. (00-KANSAS CITY -2' 15-14...SR: Kansas City 2-0)
TAMPA BAY 20 - Seattle 13-The Bucs might have gotten the offensive equalizer they needed in this game when Seattle star RB Shaun Alexander (check status) sprained his knee in last week's wire-to-wire win over at New Orleans. Washington put up a much better battle vs. T.B., holding the Bucs to 30 YR & only 169 yds. total. Not sure Seahawk front seven can turn similar trick this week, as Brad Johnson did dink away, hitting 24 of 37. With flashy young WR M. Clayton an immediate threat, Garner & Alstott run better this week on own turf. (99-Tampa Bay +5' 16-3...SR: Seattle 4-1)
DALLAS 22 - Cleveland 13-Conflicting tendencies, as Bill Parcells' charges were 7-2-1 when favored LY, while the Browns are 13-5 their last 18 when underdogs. But, in battle of veteran QBs with new teams, will stick with Testaverde, who led Dallas to 27 FDs with 355 YP at Minnesota. Cowboy defense (No. 1 overall LY), which virtually shut down Randy Moss (4 for 27), not stretched so much by the scrambling, improvising Jeff Garcia. (94-Cleveland +10' 19-14...SR: Cleveland 17-10)
New England 26 - ARIZONA 14-Arizona was 6-2 as a home dog LY, including last-play, last-game victory that finished the Vikes. And N.E. is only 3-4 as a road favorite the L3Ys. Still, the Pats have won 16 straight games and have extra prep time prior to this game and their bye week after. Run defense seemed down a notch without NT Ted Washington. But Cards' offense is
not the Colts.' And one or two mistakes by inexperienced, but developing QB McCown vs. Belichick's gimmicks might be the difference. Play the Super-Bowl jinx theory w/o our help. (99-N. Eng. -3 27-3...SR: Ariz 6-4)
***OAKLAND 26 - Buffalo 10-Home debut for Norv Turner and his more vertical offense (58 & 38-yd. TDP 1st game), while rookie Bills' coach Mike Mularkey taking his ball-control offense on the road. Question: What happens to Buffalo attack if its often-shaky OL can't root out Oakland's new run-stuffers, Ted Washington & Warren Sapp? Answer: Immobile Drew Bledsoe will be under tremendous damn pressure in "The Black Hole," as CB Woodson blankets WR Moulds. Bills had only 18 takeaways in 16 games LY; have been last in thefts the L2Ys. Bills "under" 24-3 last 27!
(02-Oakland -3 49-31...SR: Oakland 18-17)
SAN DIEGO 23 - N.Y. Jets 22-N.Y. coach Herm Edwards, who finished his playing career at S.D. State and is vocal offseason booster of the Aztec program, definitely had his Jets well-prepared in their last visit to his old college haunts, pounding the Chargers 44-13 two years ago. N.Y. improved, with a healthy Chad Pennington & Curtis Martin (196 YR in opener) and added
size at WR in 6-2 Justin McCareins. But S.D. on its own high, with star runner Tomlinson, a smarter Drew Brees (2 TD in opener), and more def. speed with new 3-4. (02-NY Jets +8 44-13...SR: San Diego 17-10-1)
*CINCINNATI 23 - Miami 16-With Miami QB situation appearing to get worse in its season opener vs. Tennessee, will give the nod to near-rookie Carson Palmer, who seems to have a better supporting cast anyway. Dolphins would probably love to have either Rudi Johnson or Chris Perry at RB, and Bengals have both. Miami defense still plenty tough. But Palmer has excellent rapport with speed WR Chad Johnson (5 for 99 last week) and is reported to be a quick study. Dolphins "under" 10 of last 13 on road. CABLE TV-ESPN (00-Miami -7 31-16...SR: Miami 13-3)
NORTHCOASTS POWERSWEEP
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
4* JACKSONVILLE over Denver
3* New England over ARIZONA
2* Indianapolis over TENNESSEE
2* NEW ORLEANS over San Fransico
NFL OVER/UNDERS
3* REDSKINS/GIANTS OVER 43
3* PATROITS/CARDINALS UNDER 41
2* JETS/CHARGERS OVER 44
2* STEELERS/RAVENS UNDER 36
2* BILLS/RAVENS OVER 38
NFL Harmon Forecast, Week 2
Sunday, Sept. 19, 2004
Baltimore 19 Pittsburgh 14 - The Ravens will win this one with defense -- not hard to do against the Steelers. In 2003, Pittsburgh took its fifth straight in the series, 34-15, then Baltimore won 13-10 on a Matt Stover field goal in OT.
Buffalo 16 *Oakland 13 - Another story of defense: The Bills', second best in the NFL last season, looks just as strong this season, and last weekend the Raiders were all pass and no run. Oakland was a 49-31 winner two years ago.
*Dallas 23 Cleveland 16 - Defense, take three: Dallas's once-fearsome unit didn't make a dent in the Vikings, but the Browns may have a difficult time with the Cowboys' league-leading (for now) air attack. The clubs last met in '94.
Denver 24 *Jacksonville 21 - A great pairing, featuring the Broncos' still-top-notch ground game and a Jaguars run defense that needs to rediscover last year's swagger. In their most recent matchup, in '99, Jacksonville edged Denver 27-24.
*Detroit 19 Houston 12 - A not-so-great pairing, concerning which the most interesting fact may be that the (undefeated!) Lions and Texans have never met. And the NFL's two least productive offenses last fall have nowhere to go but up.
*Green Bay 32 Chicago 10 - This series hasn't been fun for the Bears in recent years: The Packers have not only taken seven in a row, but they've scored at least 30 points in four in a row -- 38-23 and 34-21 in '03. More of the same.
*Kansas City 26 Carolina 21 - Against the Chiefs' defense, the weakest unit of any playoff-caliber team in the NFL, we'd advise the Panthers to run and then run some more. K.C. is two for two against Carolina, with wins in '97 and '00.
Miami 17 *Cincinnati 9 - The Dolphins' offense is missing Ricky, but if their defensive line comes alive they can shut the Bengals down. Miami has beaten Cincy nine times in a row dating back to '78, most recently four years ago.
New England 27 *Arizona 14 - A great chance for new Cardinals coach Dennis Green, who has a way with teams in need of big-time retooling, to pull a huge surprise, though we doubt the Patriots will be caught napping. N.E. won last, in '99.
*New Orleans 25 San Francisco 13 - Both of these clubs had better offenses than defenses last year, but the players who made the 49ers' offense work are gone. Two years ago N.O. won for the fourth time in its last six confrontations with S.F.
St. Louis 21 *Atlanta 20 - On a Monday night last October, the Rams dealt the Falcons their worst loss of the season, St. Louis's first shutout in 10 years, 36-0. With its re-Vicked offense, Atlanta will make a real game of it this time.
*San Diego 20 N.Y. Jets 16 - This didn't look much more interesting than Lions-Texans before last weekend, but the Chargers may actually emerge from this one 2-0 if they can corral the Jets' backfield. N.Y. pummeled S.D. 44-13 in '02.
Seattle 21 *Tampa Bay 13 - If the Seahawks are the team everyone says they are, they'll win on the road -- unlike last year -- over a solid defense like the Buccaneers'. Seattle is 4-1 against T.B., but the Bucs won last, five years ago.
*Tennessee 28 Indianapolis 24 - Our tentative game-of-the-week pick, in which the Titans have something to prove, after two of their four losses in '03 came against the Colts, 33-7 and 29-27. Tennessee's secondary must step up this time.
Washington 17 *N.Y. Giants 14 The tossup of the week, though the Redskins have new life and (for now) the league's best D. The Giants took their third in a row from Washington last year, 24-21, then the 'Skins struck back in N.Y., 20-7.
Monday, Sept. 20, 2004
*Philadelphia 30 Minnesota 23 - A potentially great prime-time shootout. The Eagles are 5-1 on Monday nights over the past two seasons, while the Vikings haven't appeared once. Philly took Minnesota apart when they met last, in '01, 48-17.
NY Newsday/Ed Mcnamara
NFL WEEK 2
Gridiron Guide
BY ED MCNAMARA
September 17, 2004
Best bet: Colts
Giants: Obey or pay
Redskins (1-0) at Giants (0-1)
Line: Redskins by 3. O-U: 41.
Besides being five minutes early for meetings, the Giants should line up according to height in the tunnel and sit up straight on the bench. If one player disobeys, punish everyone. That's how it was done in 1960 in my Catholic grammar school, where boys had to wear the school tie and a white shirt. Coach Coughlin, wouldn't that make a sharp dress code for the road? Big Blue's battle cry: If you can't compete, be neat. The Giants have lost nine straight (0-8-1 against the spread). Ride the streak, even though Washington is nothing special.
The pick against the spread: Redskins.
Jets: Green machine
Jets (1-0) at Chargers (1-0)
Line: Jets by 3. O-U: 45 1/2.
Bet you didn't know Fireman Ed's J-E-T-S cheerleading gyrations are not original, but were adapted from the C-O-L-T-S cheer in Baltimore in the 1950s. Suddenly, much-maligned offensive coordinator Paul Hackett is being hailed as a genius, and the Jets should burn another rotten defense. If they can keep LaDainian Tomlinson from running wild, Rich the Jets fan may upgrade his prediction to 12-4.
The pick: Jets.
Marquee matchups
Colts (0-1) at Titans (1-0)
Line: Titans by 1. O-U: 461/2.
The Colts have been beating themselves up for letting three red-zone turnovers keep them from defeating the Patriots. Indy, which moved the ball well enough to score 45 points, should be pumped up for its main AFC South rival. The Colts swept the Titans last year and will make it three straight ******.
The pick: Colts.
Panthers (0-1) at Chiefs (0-1)
Line: Chiefs by 6. O-U: 461/2.
Kansas City's defense was as bad as ever against Denver. Why did anyone think new coordinator Gunther Cunningham could transform the same guys who couldn't tackle or cover last season? Ron Jaworski has the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. If the NFL played two-hand touch, they might get there. KC's defense may get a break against Carolina, whose offensive line is a wreck and whose star WR/KR Steve Smith (broken leg) is down.
The pick: Chiefs.
Vikings (1-0) at Eagles (1-0)
Line: Eagles by 3. 0-U: 481/2.
With Terrell Owens and Randy Moss, Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper, ABC smells big Monday night ratings. Expect many points in this week's "over" special. If Moss scores and leaps among the Philly fans, he'll be wearing cheesesteaks. Minnesota lost its last five road games (no ******) last season, which makes me lean toward Philly.
The pick: Eagles.
Around the league
Texans (0-1) at Lions (1-0)
Line: Lions by 3. O-U: 431/2.
Will the euphoria of ending a 24-game road losing streak undermine the Lions? They do love it at Ford Field, though, covering four of the last five there and 13 of 20 at home. Unreliable Houston is a poor road team (2-5 ATS last seven).
The pick: Lions.
Rams (1-0) at Falcons (1-0)
Line: Falcons by 21/2. O-U: 46.
You like trends? Ponder these. St. Louis has covered six of the last seven in the series and was 2-0 as a road underdog last season. Home is not where Atlanta's heart is (2-6 ATS in 2003, 8-15-1 ATS there since 2001). Even if I guess wrong, at least you know I do my homework.
The pick: Rams.
Bears (0-1) at Packers (1-0)
Line: Packers by 81/2. O-U: 41.
I didn't think it was possible, but this week's games seem more inscrutable than Week 1's. Could this be a rare easy choice? Green Bay has covered seven straight against the wretched Bears, the first team since 2000 to lose at home to the Lions.
The pick: Packers.
Broncos (1-0) at Jaguars (1-0)
Line: Broncos by 3. O-U: 39.
Meaningless stat: Denver covered the last three meetings. (They haven't played since 1999.) The Broncos did surprisingly well on the road last year, covering five of their first seven. The Jags are on the rise but were lucky to beat Buffalo at the gun.
The pick: Broncos.
Steelers (1-0) at Ravens (0-1)
Line: Ravens by 4. O-U: 351/2.
Even if star T Jonathan Ogden (knee) returns, the Ravens' O-line is banged up, and they're down to three healthy wide receivers. Pittsburgh covered five of the last six meetings, and Baltimore's bad offense makes it tough to give points.
The pick: Steelers.
49ers (0-1) at Saints (0-1)
Line: Saints by 7. O-U: 42.
Deep, dark thought: Violence and gambling are the NFL's main lures, so to mask the brutal truth the league spews endless stats. Here's one for jet-lag handicappers: The 49ers will log the most air miles (35,576) this season. They lost 7 of 8 away last year, and backup QB Ken Dorsey makes his first NFL start.
The pick: Saints.
Seahawks (1-0) at Bucs (0-1)
Line: Seahawks by 3. O-U: 37.
Tampa Bay has no running game, no healthy receivers with talent, and QB Brad Johnson is a confused statue. Not getting an offensive TD against Washington was disturbing. Even if RB Shaun Alexander (knee) is out or below par, Seattle has enough firepower.
The pick: Seahawks.
Browns (1-0) at Cowboys (0-1)
Line: Cowboys by 41/2. O-U: 39.
Go with the old Letdown/Rebound theory. Cleveland could be flat after blasting the archrival Ravens, and Dallas should be psyched to rebound from a rout at Minnesota. The Cowboys were at their best last season at home (5-2-1 ATS) and as favorites (7-2-1 ATS).
The pick: Cowboys.
Bills (0-1) at Raiders (0-1)
Line: Raiders by 31/2. O-U: 371/2.
Are there any former NFL stars who aren't TV analysts? This is American culture: loudmouthed ex-jocks shouting each other down and laughing at jokes only they think are funny. Spike the Raiders fan thinks his old guys ("The Gray and Black") will be better than expected. If so, they'd better win here.
The pick: Raiders.
Patriots (1-0) at Cardinals (0-1)
Line: Patriots bt 8. O-U: 41.
The Patriots have won 16 in a row, two short of the record set by Miami in 1972 and 1973, but they should have lost to the Colts. Maybe the Pats will let down after a draining rivalry game and not cover, as they did last year at Houston. Arizona was 6-2 ATS at home last year, where the heat is a big edge.
The pick: Cardinals.
Dolphins (0-1) at Bengals (0-1)
Line: Bengals by 5. O-U: 39.
Esmeralda the Psychic reports Ricky Williams is at Acapulco's "Fields of Gold' harvest festival, where the celebrity guest will judge the bountiful crop. After seeing the Titans pummel Miami's offensive line, you can understand why he quit. Even Cincy's poor defense could pound new starting QB A.J. Feeley.
The pick: Bengals.
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Gold Sheet NFL
INDIANAPOLIS by 8 over Tennessee
OAKLAND by 16 over Buffalo
UNDER 42 total points in the Washington-N.Y. Giants game
Denver 21 - JACKSONVILLE 16-Jacksonville defense a force, and so the Jags might be in AFC playoff race for a good while TY. Still, their offense (225 total yds., two Leftwich ints.) often leaves much to be desired. So, even off their big win vs. AFC West rival K.C., will side with more offensively-competent Denver in the 2004 season, which should favor top passers more than LY. The mobile Plummer now 10-2 SU as a Bronco starter, while the huge Leftwich often hassled in pocket. (99-JACKSONVILLE -9 27-24...SR: Denver 3-2)
BALTIMORE 19 - Pittsburgh 17-Baltimore 4-1-2 as home fav. LY, but the home game the Ravens forgot to cover was the one vs. Pittsburgh. Since QB Bulger can't be trusted to scare the Steeler defense enough, it's hard to lay substantial points with Balt. vs. foe that has covered 5 of last 6 in series. Unless QB Maddox comes apart under Raven pressure, his WRs own big edge over Balt. counterparts, even with Deion in secondary. Pittsburgh defense controlled Jamal Lewis LY (183 YR in 2 meetings). (03-PITT 34-Balt. 15...P.21-17 P.33/98 B.23/88 P.21/29/0/241 B.22/43/1/143 P.1 B.1)
(03-BALT. 13-Pitt 10 (OT)...B.14-9 B.35/123 P.27/56 P.15/29/3/158
B.16/27/1/156 B.1 P.2)
DETROIT 27 - Houston 19-Young teams tend to play much better at home, so best go with youthful Lions, whose budding, speedy offense seems perfectly suited for the great indoors at Ford Field. Houston pass rush inconsistent, and secondary being retooled a bit, so youthful speed of WR Roy Williams & RB Kevin Jones figure to produce a few long gainers. PK Hanson nearly automatic indoors, while Texans gave up 26 ppg away LY. First meeting of top two QBs taken in 2002 draft-David Carr first overall & Joey Harrington third (Julius Peppers went in between). (FIRST MEETING)
***Indianapolis 27 - TENNESSEE 19-Prefer to take any points with potent Indy, desperate to avoid killer 0-2 start (does any team have a tougher first 2 games?), even with Titans' double-revenge motive. Colts better balanced on offense (E. James 142 YR at N.E.), especially if Tenn.'s budding star RB C. Brown (100 yds. in 1st H at Miami) not 100% due to tweaked ankle. If Dungy's defense can blanket WR Mason, the excellent McNair will be forced to chip away vs. lesser targets. Will Titans miss PK Nedney? (03-INDY 33-Tenn. 7...I.20-14 I.34/127 T.19/53 T.22/34/1/183 I.14/21/0/164
GREEN BAY 27 - Chicago 10-Brett Favre has enjoyed inordinate career success vs. Chicago (including winning & covering last 7 meetings). While Bears' offense has a long way to go (Grossman 2 ints. in opener), Lovie Smith has lots of ideas in mind for his speed-oriented defense, including the addition of DE Ogunleye (15 sacks LY w/Miami) & rookie DT T. Harris of Oklahoma. Skeptics, however, say the quicker unit will be vulnerable to pounding offenses, which the Packers intend to be with Ahman Green. Chicago only 4-12 vs. spread last 16 away; 11-5 "under" last 16 on road. (03-G. Bay 38-CHI. 23...C.23-20 G.25/187 C.28/181 G.22/31/1/193 C.25/44/2/180 G.0 C.0) (03-G. BAY 34-Chi. 21...G.17-13 G.38/97 C.20/44 C.17/40/3/231 G.22/33/1/210 G.0 C.2) (03-Green Bay -4 38-23, GREEN BAY -7 34-21...SR: Chicago 84-77-6)
***UNDER THE TOTAL Washington 19 - NY GIANTS 13-"Under" is first choice with Joe Gibbs' safety-first offense and N.Y.'s self-destructing offense (Kurt Warner no ints., but 2 fumbles last week; 1 lost). But Washington hardly a margin team, so oddsmakers asking nearly the max to win by a trey. But Gibbs, Portis & Co. the more reliable entity, especially with head-hunting LB LaVar Arrington keeping Warner nervous. (03-Giants 24-WAS. 21 (OT)...25-25 N.31/129 W.22/124 W.23/45/1/332 N.24/39/0/270 N.0 W.0) (03-Wash. 20-GIANTS 7...W.20-15 W.48/150 N.23/120 W.13/19/0/138 N.12/25/1/100 W.0 N.2) (03-NY Giants +2 24-21 (OT), Washington +3 20-7...SR: NY Giants 81-59-4)
NEW ORLEANS 20 - San Francisco 17-Despite all the preseason criticism, S.F. was not as "horseshoe" as everyone thought it would be in the opener, easily out-gaining Atlanta, holding the Falcons to just over 200 total yards, and nearly sending the game into OT. Niners built-for-speed defense held the somewhat rusty Mike Vick to 10 YR, 163 YP, and picked up 4 sacks, while Tim Rattay (La. Tech) had 2 TDP & new No. 1 WR C. Wilson was 7 for 94. (02-NEW
ORLEANS -1' 35-27...SR: San Francisco 45-19-2)
ATLANTA 27 - St. Louis 20-Now that Mike Vick has a full, healthy game under his belt, will side with enthusiastic Falcs in Jim Mora Jr.'s home debut. Atlanta secondary leaves a lot to be desired. But so do the road performances of still-learning St. Louis QB Marc Bulger, who tied for the lead in ints. LY with 22). He'll hit a few good plays, but also be hurried by Mora's frequent blitzes. Vick DNP in LY's game. (03-ST. LOUIS 36-Atl. 0...S.26-9 S.31/119 A.21/73 S.24/35/2/377 A.12/28/2/136 S.1 A.2) (03-ST. LOUIS -11 36-0...SR: St. Louis 46-23-2)
KANSAS CITY 31 - Carolina 20-Carolina was the "top dog" LY in the NFL, going 7-1 getting points, including the Panthers' near-victory in the Super Bowl. But this is this year, and there is no OL better prepared to deal with Carolina's ferocious front four than K.C.'s quick group. And, as N.E. showed LY in the Super Bowl, several of the Panther DBs can be picked on. After opening loss at Denver, Gunther Cunningham's defenders eager to show they
appreciate his new simpler, sounder, more aggressive schemes. Chiefs "over" 26-12-1 last 39. (00-KANSAS CITY -2' 15-14...SR: Kansas City 2-0)
TAMPA BAY 20 - Seattle 13-The Bucs might have gotten the offensive equalizer they needed in this game when Seattle star RB Shaun Alexander (check status) sprained his knee in last week's wire-to-wire win over at New Orleans. Washington put up a much better battle vs. T.B., holding the Bucs to 30 YR & only 169 yds. total. Not sure Seahawk front seven can turn similar trick this week, as Brad Johnson did dink away, hitting 24 of 37. With flashy young WR M. Clayton an immediate threat, Garner & Alstott run better this week on own turf. (99-Tampa Bay +5' 16-3...SR: Seattle 4-1)
DALLAS 22 - Cleveland 13-Conflicting tendencies, as Bill Parcells' charges were 7-2-1 when favored LY, while the Browns are 13-5 their last 18 when underdogs. But, in battle of veteran QBs with new teams, will stick with Testaverde, who led Dallas to 27 FDs with 355 YP at Minnesota. Cowboy defense (No. 1 overall LY), which virtually shut down Randy Moss (4 for 27), not stretched so much by the scrambling, improvising Jeff Garcia. (94-Cleveland +10' 19-14...SR: Cleveland 17-10)
New England 26 - ARIZONA 14-Arizona was 6-2 as a home dog LY, including last-play, last-game victory that finished the Vikes. And N.E. is only 3-4 as a road favorite the L3Ys. Still, the Pats have won 16 straight games and have extra prep time prior to this game and their bye week after. Run defense seemed down a notch without NT Ted Washington. But Cards' offense is
not the Colts.' And one or two mistakes by inexperienced, but developing QB McCown vs. Belichick's gimmicks might be the difference. Play the Super-Bowl jinx theory w/o our help. (99-N. Eng. -3 27-3...SR: Ariz 6-4)
***OAKLAND 26 - Buffalo 10-Home debut for Norv Turner and his more vertical offense (58 & 38-yd. TDP 1st game), while rookie Bills' coach Mike Mularkey taking his ball-control offense on the road. Question: What happens to Buffalo attack if its often-shaky OL can't root out Oakland's new run-stuffers, Ted Washington & Warren Sapp? Answer: Immobile Drew Bledsoe will be under tremendous damn pressure in "The Black Hole," as CB Woodson blankets WR Moulds. Bills had only 18 takeaways in 16 games LY; have been last in thefts the L2Ys. Bills "under" 24-3 last 27!
(02-Oakland -3 49-31...SR: Oakland 18-17)
SAN DIEGO 23 - N.Y. Jets 22-N.Y. coach Herm Edwards, who finished his playing career at S.D. State and is vocal offseason booster of the Aztec program, definitely had his Jets well-prepared in their last visit to his old college haunts, pounding the Chargers 44-13 two years ago. N.Y. improved, with a healthy Chad Pennington & Curtis Martin (196 YR in opener) and added
size at WR in 6-2 Justin McCareins. But S.D. on its own high, with star runner Tomlinson, a smarter Drew Brees (2 TD in opener), and more def. speed with new 3-4. (02-NY Jets +8 44-13...SR: San Diego 17-10-1)
*CINCINNATI 23 - Miami 16-With Miami QB situation appearing to get worse in its season opener vs. Tennessee, will give the nod to near-rookie Carson Palmer, who seems to have a better supporting cast anyway. Dolphins would probably love to have either Rudi Johnson or Chris Perry at RB, and Bengals have both. Miami defense still plenty tough. But Palmer has excellent rapport with speed WR Chad Johnson (5 for 99 last week) and is reported to be a quick study. Dolphins "under" 10 of last 13 on road. CABLE TV-ESPN (00-Miami -7 31-16...SR: Miami 13-3)
NORTHCOASTS POWERSWEEP
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
4* JACKSONVILLE over Denver
3* New England over ARIZONA
2* Indianapolis over TENNESSEE
2* NEW ORLEANS over San Fransico
NFL OVER/UNDERS
3* REDSKINS/GIANTS OVER 43
3* PATROITS/CARDINALS UNDER 41
2* JETS/CHARGERS OVER 44
2* STEELERS/RAVENS UNDER 36
2* BILLS/RAVENS OVER 38
NFL Harmon Forecast, Week 2
Sunday, Sept. 19, 2004
Baltimore 19 Pittsburgh 14 - The Ravens will win this one with defense -- not hard to do against the Steelers. In 2003, Pittsburgh took its fifth straight in the series, 34-15, then Baltimore won 13-10 on a Matt Stover field goal in OT.
Buffalo 16 *Oakland 13 - Another story of defense: The Bills', second best in the NFL last season, looks just as strong this season, and last weekend the Raiders were all pass and no run. Oakland was a 49-31 winner two years ago.
*Dallas 23 Cleveland 16 - Defense, take three: Dallas's once-fearsome unit didn't make a dent in the Vikings, but the Browns may have a difficult time with the Cowboys' league-leading (for now) air attack. The clubs last met in '94.
Denver 24 *Jacksonville 21 - A great pairing, featuring the Broncos' still-top-notch ground game and a Jaguars run defense that needs to rediscover last year's swagger. In their most recent matchup, in '99, Jacksonville edged Denver 27-24.
*Detroit 19 Houston 12 - A not-so-great pairing, concerning which the most interesting fact may be that the (undefeated!) Lions and Texans have never met. And the NFL's two least productive offenses last fall have nowhere to go but up.
*Green Bay 32 Chicago 10 - This series hasn't been fun for the Bears in recent years: The Packers have not only taken seven in a row, but they've scored at least 30 points in four in a row -- 38-23 and 34-21 in '03. More of the same.
*Kansas City 26 Carolina 21 - Against the Chiefs' defense, the weakest unit of any playoff-caliber team in the NFL, we'd advise the Panthers to run and then run some more. K.C. is two for two against Carolina, with wins in '97 and '00.
Miami 17 *Cincinnati 9 - The Dolphins' offense is missing Ricky, but if their defensive line comes alive they can shut the Bengals down. Miami has beaten Cincy nine times in a row dating back to '78, most recently four years ago.
New England 27 *Arizona 14 - A great chance for new Cardinals coach Dennis Green, who has a way with teams in need of big-time retooling, to pull a huge surprise, though we doubt the Patriots will be caught napping. N.E. won last, in '99.
*New Orleans 25 San Francisco 13 - Both of these clubs had better offenses than defenses last year, but the players who made the 49ers' offense work are gone. Two years ago N.O. won for the fourth time in its last six confrontations with S.F.
St. Louis 21 *Atlanta 20 - On a Monday night last October, the Rams dealt the Falcons their worst loss of the season, St. Louis's first shutout in 10 years, 36-0. With its re-Vicked offense, Atlanta will make a real game of it this time.
*San Diego 20 N.Y. Jets 16 - This didn't look much more interesting than Lions-Texans before last weekend, but the Chargers may actually emerge from this one 2-0 if they can corral the Jets' backfield. N.Y. pummeled S.D. 44-13 in '02.
Seattle 21 *Tampa Bay 13 - If the Seahawks are the team everyone says they are, they'll win on the road -- unlike last year -- over a solid defense like the Buccaneers'. Seattle is 4-1 against T.B., but the Bucs won last, five years ago.
*Tennessee 28 Indianapolis 24 - Our tentative game-of-the-week pick, in which the Titans have something to prove, after two of their four losses in '03 came against the Colts, 33-7 and 29-27. Tennessee's secondary must step up this time.
Washington 17 *N.Y. Giants 14 The tossup of the week, though the Redskins have new life and (for now) the league's best D. The Giants took their third in a row from Washington last year, 24-21, then the 'Skins struck back in N.Y., 20-7.
Monday, Sept. 20, 2004
*Philadelphia 30 Minnesota 23 - A potentially great prime-time shootout. The Eagles are 5-1 on Monday nights over the past two seasons, while the Vikings haven't appeared once. Philly took Minnesota apart when they met last, in '01, 48-17.
NY Newsday/Ed Mcnamara
NFL WEEK 2
Gridiron Guide
BY ED MCNAMARA
September 17, 2004
Best bet: Colts
Giants: Obey or pay
Redskins (1-0) at Giants (0-1)
Line: Redskins by 3. O-U: 41.
Besides being five minutes early for meetings, the Giants should line up according to height in the tunnel and sit up straight on the bench. If one player disobeys, punish everyone. That's how it was done in 1960 in my Catholic grammar school, where boys had to wear the school tie and a white shirt. Coach Coughlin, wouldn't that make a sharp dress code for the road? Big Blue's battle cry: If you can't compete, be neat. The Giants have lost nine straight (0-8-1 against the spread). Ride the streak, even though Washington is nothing special.
The pick against the spread: Redskins.
Jets: Green machine
Jets (1-0) at Chargers (1-0)
Line: Jets by 3. O-U: 45 1/2.
Bet you didn't know Fireman Ed's J-E-T-S cheerleading gyrations are not original, but were adapted from the C-O-L-T-S cheer in Baltimore in the 1950s. Suddenly, much-maligned offensive coordinator Paul Hackett is being hailed as a genius, and the Jets should burn another rotten defense. If they can keep LaDainian Tomlinson from running wild, Rich the Jets fan may upgrade his prediction to 12-4.
The pick: Jets.
Marquee matchups
Colts (0-1) at Titans (1-0)
Line: Titans by 1. O-U: 461/2.
The Colts have been beating themselves up for letting three red-zone turnovers keep them from defeating the Patriots. Indy, which moved the ball well enough to score 45 points, should be pumped up for its main AFC South rival. The Colts swept the Titans last year and will make it three straight ******.
The pick: Colts.
Panthers (0-1) at Chiefs (0-1)
Line: Chiefs by 6. O-U: 461/2.
Kansas City's defense was as bad as ever against Denver. Why did anyone think new coordinator Gunther Cunningham could transform the same guys who couldn't tackle or cover last season? Ron Jaworski has the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. If the NFL played two-hand touch, they might get there. KC's defense may get a break against Carolina, whose offensive line is a wreck and whose star WR/KR Steve Smith (broken leg) is down.
The pick: Chiefs.
Vikings (1-0) at Eagles (1-0)
Line: Eagles by 3. 0-U: 481/2.
With Terrell Owens and Randy Moss, Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper, ABC smells big Monday night ratings. Expect many points in this week's "over" special. If Moss scores and leaps among the Philly fans, he'll be wearing cheesesteaks. Minnesota lost its last five road games (no ******) last season, which makes me lean toward Philly.
The pick: Eagles.
Around the league
Texans (0-1) at Lions (1-0)
Line: Lions by 3. O-U: 431/2.
Will the euphoria of ending a 24-game road losing streak undermine the Lions? They do love it at Ford Field, though, covering four of the last five there and 13 of 20 at home. Unreliable Houston is a poor road team (2-5 ATS last seven).
The pick: Lions.
Rams (1-0) at Falcons (1-0)
Line: Falcons by 21/2. O-U: 46.
You like trends? Ponder these. St. Louis has covered six of the last seven in the series and was 2-0 as a road underdog last season. Home is not where Atlanta's heart is (2-6 ATS in 2003, 8-15-1 ATS there since 2001). Even if I guess wrong, at least you know I do my homework.
The pick: Rams.
Bears (0-1) at Packers (1-0)
Line: Packers by 81/2. O-U: 41.
I didn't think it was possible, but this week's games seem more inscrutable than Week 1's. Could this be a rare easy choice? Green Bay has covered seven straight against the wretched Bears, the first team since 2000 to lose at home to the Lions.
The pick: Packers.
Broncos (1-0) at Jaguars (1-0)
Line: Broncos by 3. O-U: 39.
Meaningless stat: Denver covered the last three meetings. (They haven't played since 1999.) The Broncos did surprisingly well on the road last year, covering five of their first seven. The Jags are on the rise but were lucky to beat Buffalo at the gun.
The pick: Broncos.
Steelers (1-0) at Ravens (0-1)
Line: Ravens by 4. O-U: 351/2.
Even if star T Jonathan Ogden (knee) returns, the Ravens' O-line is banged up, and they're down to three healthy wide receivers. Pittsburgh covered five of the last six meetings, and Baltimore's bad offense makes it tough to give points.
The pick: Steelers.
49ers (0-1) at Saints (0-1)
Line: Saints by 7. O-U: 42.
Deep, dark thought: Violence and gambling are the NFL's main lures, so to mask the brutal truth the league spews endless stats. Here's one for jet-lag handicappers: The 49ers will log the most air miles (35,576) this season. They lost 7 of 8 away last year, and backup QB Ken Dorsey makes his first NFL start.
The pick: Saints.
Seahawks (1-0) at Bucs (0-1)
Line: Seahawks by 3. O-U: 37.
Tampa Bay has no running game, no healthy receivers with talent, and QB Brad Johnson is a confused statue. Not getting an offensive TD against Washington was disturbing. Even if RB Shaun Alexander (knee) is out or below par, Seattle has enough firepower.
The pick: Seahawks.
Browns (1-0) at Cowboys (0-1)
Line: Cowboys by 41/2. O-U: 39.
Go with the old Letdown/Rebound theory. Cleveland could be flat after blasting the archrival Ravens, and Dallas should be psyched to rebound from a rout at Minnesota. The Cowboys were at their best last season at home (5-2-1 ATS) and as favorites (7-2-1 ATS).
The pick: Cowboys.
Bills (0-1) at Raiders (0-1)
Line: Raiders by 31/2. O-U: 371/2.
Are there any former NFL stars who aren't TV analysts? This is American culture: loudmouthed ex-jocks shouting each other down and laughing at jokes only they think are funny. Spike the Raiders fan thinks his old guys ("The Gray and Black") will be better than expected. If so, they'd better win here.
The pick: Raiders.
Patriots (1-0) at Cardinals (0-1)
Line: Patriots bt 8. O-U: 41.
The Patriots have won 16 in a row, two short of the record set by Miami in 1972 and 1973, but they should have lost to the Colts. Maybe the Pats will let down after a draining rivalry game and not cover, as they did last year at Houston. Arizona was 6-2 ATS at home last year, where the heat is a big edge.
The pick: Cardinals.
Dolphins (0-1) at Bengals (0-1)
Line: Bengals by 5. O-U: 39.
Esmeralda the Psychic reports Ricky Williams is at Acapulco's "Fields of Gold' harvest festival, where the celebrity guest will judge the bountiful crop. After seeing the Titans pummel Miami's offensive line, you can understand why he quit. Even Cincy's poor defense could pound new starting QB A.J. Feeley.
The pick: Bengals.
