"that is the one thing about stats my friend they are all in the past"
so is the documented 65% i hit on these props this year playing a very high percentage of dogs.
not looking for any arguments here (we're all trying to post and find winners), just trying to share some knowledge. more YES' hit than NO's and vegas tends to skew the lines towards NO because the average person says "how hard can it be to get 6 outs" (especially when big name pitchers are throwing).
you would be surprised at the terrible 1st inning stats of a lot of aces with low ERA's. there are also some real bums who have great 1st inning numbers. i (and a lot of others) do feel that baseball is the most statistical driven sport / gambling investment.
the issue people have with a -150 prop bet is that over the long haul you have to hit 60% to break even. it's a solid play (today), but has little value long term.
anywho...
i had this game as a NO (lean) in my thread today as well. congrats on the hit. keep 'em coming.
peace
lazzonya
so is the documented 65% i hit on these props this year playing a very high percentage of dogs.
not looking for any arguments here (we're all trying to post and find winners), just trying to share some knowledge. more YES' hit than NO's and vegas tends to skew the lines towards NO because the average person says "how hard can it be to get 6 outs" (especially when big name pitchers are throwing).
you would be surprised at the terrible 1st inning stats of a lot of aces with low ERA's. there are also some real bums who have great 1st inning numbers. i (and a lot of others) do feel that baseball is the most statistical driven sport / gambling investment.
the issue people have with a -150 prop bet is that over the long haul you have to hit 60% to break even. it's a solid play (today), but has little value long term.
anywho...
i had this game as a NO (lean) in my thread today as well. congrats on the hit. keep 'em coming.
peace
lazzonya
im not into complications. all i can say is, about half through baseball season i found something. its pretty basic and simple nothing special. i look at two starting pitchers ERAs. Secondary ill look to see offense off each team. No matter what juice is, if im convineced itll go no in the 1st im playing back to win certain amount. everyone bets differently and have their own strategies. you just have to respect that. not saying statstically youre wrong. i guess it comes down to individuals choosing right games, and thats just what i do lol...i wish i can tell you something in detail, or logically go deep on this type of bet but its not. thats why its a prop. it pays quick and you get to relax and enjoy rest of game
I'm glad you're excited about hitting your prop today but honestly, as they saying goes, "those that forget history are doomed to repeat it".
And if you're playing this prop without even calculating your own line to determine overlays and are just playing the line "no matter what it is" you're going to get destroyed long term with this prop and it's 30 cent lines.
Just trying to help out and save certain heartache down the road.
GL
everything i have points to a NO. i had the line @ EV/-130.
personally, i normally don't ever lay more than -120 (so it's just a lean for me).
it just seems to work better for me that way. i went 5-2 on my really big plays this year and both losses were @ -130. 4 of the 5 wins were -110 or better.
GL2U.
personally, i normally don't ever lay more than -120 (so it's just a lean for me).
it just seems to work better for me that way. i went 5-2 on my really big plays this year and both losses were @ -130. 4 of the 5 wins were -110 or better.
GL2U.
