Today I received the following picks from Nite Owl Sports, each of which had really good supporting WUs:
Nite Owl Sports Picks on Wash at NYR game 7 onSaturday, May 12 - starts 7:35 EDT
Game Over 4.5 goals (-125 odds) for 2.5 units
Wash/regulation puck line +1/2 goal (-115 odds) for 2units (pick wins if Wash wins in regulation or game goes to OT, regardlessof who wins in OT)
Draw line +275 odds - risk 2 units to win +5.5 units ifgame goes to OT
Wash/ML for one unit at +125
Nite Owl’s Supporting WUs for above picks
Over 4.5 goals - This has been a low scoring series so far, with the six gamesaveraging just 4.25 total gpg and none of them with > 5 goals, mostly due tostellar play by both defenses and goalies, but also due to some poor executionon offense by both teams, more so NY. And as a result, the six games are 0-3-3to the Under, again with an average of 4.25 total gpg. That’s consistent withNYR’s overall 1-6-6 Under mark in their 13 playoff games so far TY, and 2-3-2Under mark in the 7 PO games that were at home, with an average of 4.3 totalgpg in those 7 playoff HGs. And it’s also consistent with Wash’s overall 3-7-3Under mark in their 13 playoff games so far, and 1-4-2 Under mark in their 7 POgames that were away, with an average of just 4.0 total gpg in those 7 roadies.And we are 2-0-1 so far going Under in this series.
So with that backdrop, why would we take the Over in this game?Very simple – by posting a ridiculously low totals line of 4.5 goals, the linemakers have over-reacted to the large number of playoff Unders already postedby these two teams in TY’s playoffs (4-11-7 Under in their 22 combinedplayoff games so far). As a result, we see a golden opportunity for a high %line value play on the Over, based on the following support and line valueanalysis: first, note that if the score is tied 2-2 at any point in thegame, we are guaranteed a win with the Over 4.5. Second,look at NYR’s totals record at home (19-19, with 11 “pushes,”all vs a line of 5) and NYR’s totals record of 15-20 to the Under, butwith an incredibly high 25 “pushes,” in their 60 games TY when the totals linehas been 5. Third, the Caps’ totals record on the road TY was 24-20 to theOver, with 4 “pushes” vs a line of 5, and in their 25 games TY when the totalsline has been 5, Caps were 8-9 to the Under, with 8 pushes (games ending upwith a total of 5 goals). Adding up all of those 47 TOTALS PUSHES for bothteams in the above described modes VS A TOTALS LINE OF 5 changes therelevant totals records of both teams immensely – more specifically, if thetotals line was instead 4.5 in those 47 games, like it is here, the totalsrecords would by NYR 30-19 Over at home, Caps 28-20 Over away, 40-21 Over forNYR vs. a totals line of 4.5, and 16-9 Over for Caps vs. a totals line of 4.5. Thosenumbers (114-69) add up to a HUGE 63.3% edge for the Over vs a “wouldbe” line of 4.5 in those 183 games (admitting that there is some‘overlap” in those above 4 categories of totals records). And similarly, whilethese two have gone 0-3-5 vs the total in their 8 games against each other TYsince All Star break, with all 5 pushes vs a line of 5, including 0-1-4 for thefive games (of the 8) played in NY, those records would be 5-3 to theOver in the 8 games and 4-1 Over for the five games in NY vs a “wouldbe” totals line of 4.5 in those games.
So even though this game could easily end up a 3-1 or 2-1 Under,we won’t pass up this opportunity to jump on the Over at 4.5, given the abovesupport for this strong line value Over play. So it’s 2.5 units on Over 4.5and laying -125 odds, well worth the price to get that “Over-friendly” totalsline of 4.5.
Supporting WU for picks on Wash and draw line - When it comes to close playoffgames with high stakes, no team in NHL history has had more experience thanthis year's edition of the Washington Capitals, who have played 13 gamesalready this post-season, with 12 of them having been decided by a goal (six ofthem in OT), including their 2-1 home win inGame 6 on Wednesday night to force this game 7. So we expect another tightcontest Saturday night as the Capitals visit the New York Rangers in theseventh and deciding game of their Eastern Conference semi-final series, wherea Caps’ victory would move Washington into the Eastern Conference finals forthe first time since 1998 (that team eventually fell to a Detroit juggernaut in Stanley Cup finals).
Win or lose, Washington net minder Braden Holtby, a rookie who haspleasantly surprised Caps’ team-mates, fans and coaches with his consistentplay when pressed into emergency duty for the Caps’ last few regular seasongames and the playoffs after Caps’ top two goalies were injured late in theregular season, has already had a memorable ride over the last six weeks. AndHoltby certainly wasn't to blame for the Capitals' last two serieslosses, after he recorded a career-high 47 saves in the game 3 home loss andthen 35 saves on 38 shots in game 5 at NY. Holtby turned aside 30 shots inWednesday's elimination game win as the Capitals improved to 6-0 in gamesfollowing a loss so far in the playoffs. And the Capitals’ confidence (thatthey can win this game 7 in NY) from going 2-2 vs Rangers in their fourgames against them since April 1 in NY, plus their big first round win atBoston in game 7 of that series, cannot be over-stated.
Like Washington, the top-seeded New York Rangers also findthemselves in a second Game 7 after going the distance with the Ottawa Senatorsin round one and winning that finale 2-1 in NY. The Rangers ledWashington three different times in this best-of-seven series, only to see theCapitals fight back each time, giving Rangers a crappy 1-5 record in first tworounds of TYs playoffs after a win. New York has home-ice advantage for thedeciding game, and is expecting a raucous crowd at Madison Square Garden toprovide an edge, however slight it may be once the puck drops. Rangers were27-14 at MSG in the regular season, the second-best home record in the EasternConference, and they are 4-3 at home in playoffs TY and 4-1 after a SUloss in the playoffs, including 1-1 at home. But while Wash is a sucky 1-4after a SU win in TY’s playoffs, 3 of those 4 post-win losses have been on homeice, and we believe that the more relevant records for Caps are their solid4-3 away record in playoffs TY, including that game 7 win in Boston, and their2-2 record vs Rangers in their four games against them in NY since April 1,including being six seconds away from a win there in regulation time in game 5.And while most hockey fans assume that the home team has a huge advantagein a game 7, the actual second-round game 7 results since 2000 sayotherwise, as lower-seeded teams (nearly all of whom have been road dogslike Caps are here) have won six of the 12 second-round Game 7s during those 11years.
So as is obvious from the above, this game is a tough call asto which side will win, but with it basically being a toss-up, and having to lay-145 odds with NYR but getting +125 odds with the Wash Caps, we’llofficially take the Caps for a small ML play. However, note thatif your book offers you alternative lines for the game, we prefer one or bothof the following two “specialty” plays. Since we expect a very close game, andvery possibly the third OT game in this series, we believe the best value isto play the “draw” line, where we are betting that the game goes to OT, and aregetting huge +275 odds -- and again, all that needs to happen for that playto be a winner is for the game to go to OT (it does not matter which teameventually wins in OT). If your book does not offer a draw line but does offera “regulation puck line,” where we would get +1/2 goal with the Caps and wouldwin that bet if either they win in regulation time or the game goes to OT (andlike with the above described draw play, the regulation puck line play being awinner if the game goes to OT, and it being irrelevant which team eventuallywins in OT), that is also a good way to play the Caps, although you’ll have tolay some light odds (probably about -110 or -115) to get that half a puck.
Nite Owl Sports Picks on Wash at NYR game 7 onSaturday, May 12 - starts 7:35 EDT
Game Over 4.5 goals (-125 odds) for 2.5 units
Wash/regulation puck line +1/2 goal (-115 odds) for 2units (pick wins if Wash wins in regulation or game goes to OT, regardlessof who wins in OT)
Draw line +275 odds - risk 2 units to win +5.5 units ifgame goes to OT
Wash/ML for one unit at +125
Nite Owl’s Supporting WUs for above picks
Over 4.5 goals - This has been a low scoring series so far, with the six gamesaveraging just 4.25 total gpg and none of them with > 5 goals, mostly due tostellar play by both defenses and goalies, but also due to some poor executionon offense by both teams, more so NY. And as a result, the six games are 0-3-3to the Under, again with an average of 4.25 total gpg. That’s consistent withNYR’s overall 1-6-6 Under mark in their 13 playoff games so far TY, and 2-3-2Under mark in the 7 PO games that were at home, with an average of 4.3 totalgpg in those 7 playoff HGs. And it’s also consistent with Wash’s overall 3-7-3Under mark in their 13 playoff games so far, and 1-4-2 Under mark in their 7 POgames that were away, with an average of just 4.0 total gpg in those 7 roadies.And we are 2-0-1 so far going Under in this series.
So with that backdrop, why would we take the Over in this game?Very simple – by posting a ridiculously low totals line of 4.5 goals, the linemakers have over-reacted to the large number of playoff Unders already postedby these two teams in TY’s playoffs (4-11-7 Under in their 22 combinedplayoff games so far). As a result, we see a golden opportunity for a high %line value play on the Over, based on the following support and line valueanalysis: first, note that if the score is tied 2-2 at any point in thegame, we are guaranteed a win with the Over 4.5. Second,look at NYR’s totals record at home (19-19, with 11 “pushes,”all vs a line of 5) and NYR’s totals record of 15-20 to the Under, butwith an incredibly high 25 “pushes,” in their 60 games TY when the totals linehas been 5. Third, the Caps’ totals record on the road TY was 24-20 to theOver, with 4 “pushes” vs a line of 5, and in their 25 games TY when the totalsline has been 5, Caps were 8-9 to the Under, with 8 pushes (games ending upwith a total of 5 goals). Adding up all of those 47 TOTALS PUSHES for bothteams in the above described modes VS A TOTALS LINE OF 5 changes therelevant totals records of both teams immensely – more specifically, if thetotals line was instead 4.5 in those 47 games, like it is here, the totalsrecords would by NYR 30-19 Over at home, Caps 28-20 Over away, 40-21 Over forNYR vs. a totals line of 4.5, and 16-9 Over for Caps vs. a totals line of 4.5. Thosenumbers (114-69) add up to a HUGE 63.3% edge for the Over vs a “wouldbe” line of 4.5 in those 183 games (admitting that there is some‘overlap” in those above 4 categories of totals records). And similarly, whilethese two have gone 0-3-5 vs the total in their 8 games against each other TYsince All Star break, with all 5 pushes vs a line of 5, including 0-1-4 for thefive games (of the 8) played in NY, those records would be 5-3 to theOver in the 8 games and 4-1 Over for the five games in NY vs a “wouldbe” totals line of 4.5 in those games.
So even though this game could easily end up a 3-1 or 2-1 Under,we won’t pass up this opportunity to jump on the Over at 4.5, given the abovesupport for this strong line value Over play. So it’s 2.5 units on Over 4.5and laying -125 odds, well worth the price to get that “Over-friendly” totalsline of 4.5.
Supporting WU for picks on Wash and draw line - When it comes to close playoffgames with high stakes, no team in NHL history has had more experience thanthis year's edition of the Washington Capitals, who have played 13 gamesalready this post-season, with 12 of them having been decided by a goal (six ofthem in OT), including their 2-1 home win inGame 6 on Wednesday night to force this game 7. So we expect another tightcontest Saturday night as the Capitals visit the New York Rangers in theseventh and deciding game of their Eastern Conference semi-final series, wherea Caps’ victory would move Washington into the Eastern Conference finals forthe first time since 1998 (that team eventually fell to a Detroit juggernaut in Stanley Cup finals).
Win or lose, Washington net minder Braden Holtby, a rookie who haspleasantly surprised Caps’ team-mates, fans and coaches with his consistentplay when pressed into emergency duty for the Caps’ last few regular seasongames and the playoffs after Caps’ top two goalies were injured late in theregular season, has already had a memorable ride over the last six weeks. AndHoltby certainly wasn't to blame for the Capitals' last two serieslosses, after he recorded a career-high 47 saves in the game 3 home loss andthen 35 saves on 38 shots in game 5 at NY. Holtby turned aside 30 shots inWednesday's elimination game win as the Capitals improved to 6-0 in gamesfollowing a loss so far in the playoffs. And the Capitals’ confidence (thatthey can win this game 7 in NY) from going 2-2 vs Rangers in their fourgames against them since April 1 in NY, plus their big first round win atBoston in game 7 of that series, cannot be over-stated.
Like Washington, the top-seeded New York Rangers also findthemselves in a second Game 7 after going the distance with the Ottawa Senatorsin round one and winning that finale 2-1 in NY. The Rangers ledWashington three different times in this best-of-seven series, only to see theCapitals fight back each time, giving Rangers a crappy 1-5 record in first tworounds of TYs playoffs after a win. New York has home-ice advantage for thedeciding game, and is expecting a raucous crowd at Madison Square Garden toprovide an edge, however slight it may be once the puck drops. Rangers were27-14 at MSG in the regular season, the second-best home record in the EasternConference, and they are 4-3 at home in playoffs TY and 4-1 after a SUloss in the playoffs, including 1-1 at home. But while Wash is a sucky 1-4after a SU win in TY’s playoffs, 3 of those 4 post-win losses have been on homeice, and we believe that the more relevant records for Caps are their solid4-3 away record in playoffs TY, including that game 7 win in Boston, and their2-2 record vs Rangers in their four games against them in NY since April 1,including being six seconds away from a win there in regulation time in game 5.And while most hockey fans assume that the home team has a huge advantagein a game 7, the actual second-round game 7 results since 2000 sayotherwise, as lower-seeded teams (nearly all of whom have been road dogslike Caps are here) have won six of the 12 second-round Game 7s during those 11years.
So as is obvious from the above, this game is a tough call asto which side will win, but with it basically being a toss-up, and having to lay-145 odds with NYR but getting +125 odds with the Wash Caps, we’llofficially take the Caps for a small ML play. However, note thatif your book offers you alternative lines for the game, we prefer one or bothof the following two “specialty” plays. Since we expect a very close game, andvery possibly the third OT game in this series, we believe the best value isto play the “draw” line, where we are betting that the game goes to OT, and aregetting huge +275 odds -- and again, all that needs to happen for that playto be a winner is for the game to go to OT (it does not matter which teameventually wins in OT). If your book does not offer a draw line but does offera “regulation puck line,” where we would get +1/2 goal with the Caps and wouldwin that bet if either they win in regulation time or the game goes to OT (andlike with the above described draw play, the regulation puck line play being awinner if the game goes to OT, and it being irrelevant which team eventuallywins in OT), that is also a good way to play the Caps, although you’ll have tolay some light odds (probably about -110 or -115) to get that half a puck.
