NHL systems 2014/15

[rolltide]

yeah, they always fudge a bit...no idea why. can't do the 1P stuff but you got the middle one covered. hell of a nice run since 2009 season...

ou streak >= 6 and tA(goals-o:goals) >= 0.3 and season >= 2009
SU: 24-6 (1.10, 80.0%) avg line: -141.3 / 129.2 on / against: +$1,663 / -$1,710 ROI: +37.9% / -54.3% OU: 15-13-2 (0.57, 53.6%) avg total: 5.5
SoG Pens P-Mins P1 P2 P3 Final Team 32.4 4.8 12.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 3.6 Opp 30.0 4.9 12.0 0.6 1.1 0.7 2.5
Date Day Season Team Opp Site P1 P2 P3 Final Line Total SUm SUr OUr ot Nov 09, 2014 Sunday 2014 Lightning Red Wings away 113 5.5

 

[rolltide]

a few teams ones:
Sharks are 7-20 away vs team with >=40% after an away win
Hawks are 24-5 SU at home after a home loss
Red Wings have won 20 straight at home after a home fav win and facing unrested opponent
Canucks are 3-21 SU away after a game played as underdog

 

[rolltide]

nothing for MON

 

[rolltide]

SJ - play against early season home dog that scored 2+ last game if opponent winning %>40. 53-16 +135%, 15-8 +112% 2014
NYI - play on home fav off away fav win with => rest than opponent. 109-35, 8-3 2014
NYI - play on winning home fav off away shutout win. 41-14 SU, 2-1 2014
NYI - play on hot home fav 91-28 SU, 1-3 2014...qualifies for super hot home fav 51-14, 1-1 2014
NYR - oppose team on great scoring streak with rested home team off a loss. 133-73 SU, 0-1 2014 ... does not meet best qualifiers

tons of team ones today but a few of interest:
PIT - pens 16-4 L20 after 3+ away games
TB - 3-14 SU with 13 overs L17 away games after away win
STL - 17-3 L20 as a fav after a fav loss
ARI - 18-2 SU L20 home fav after dog loss
WAS - 12-1 L13 as -200+ home fav

 

[jonny2k4]

Great islanders pick last night. Anything for tonight?

 

[rolltide]

BOS - oppose early season home dogs that scored 2+ last game and opponent WP>=40 53-18 L3+ years
TOR - oppose away favs off b2b2b allowing <=2 goals. 88-65 +127% (11-2 L13)
BOS/TOR under - UNDER small home dog, winning team, after allowing 4+. 107-63 unders (81-43 if total 5.5+)

so just under 5.5 in BOS for wed



early look at THU:
NYR - oppose bad road team off multi-goal away loss vs decent home team. 56-11 +136% (39-6 +140% when both rested)
COL - bet on terrible road dog after getting shutout. 52-26 +162%
SJ - oppose big home favs (line -132 or higher) off a road shootout. 35-28 +158% for road team
TB - oppose away dog after away fav 145-66 +122%
MTL (if fav) - oppose avenging away dog after away fav 73-26 +131%
MTL - play on winning team off home shutout win 1H season. 155-71 +121% (44-14 +130% L2 years)
OTT - oppose EDM home after road trip. 22-4 L26

 

[rolltide]

THU:
MIN - oppose bad teams that just allowed b2b 5 goals. 62-20 +123% - also 26-6 if team has revenge like MIN
SJ - oppose big home favs (line -132 or higher) off a road shootout. 35-28 +158% for road team
TB - oppose away dog after away fav 145-66 +122%
COL - bet on terrible road dog after getting shutout. 52-26 +162%
NYR - oppose bad road team off multi-goal away loss vs decent home team. 56-11 +136% (39-6 +140% when both rested)
LAK - oppose away dog after away fav 145-66 +122%. Meets 46-11 +140% as Stars off 1 goal
MTL - oppose avenging away dog after away fav 73-26 +131%
MTL - play on winning team off home shutout win 1H season. 155-71 +121% (44-14 +130% L2 years)
OTT - oppose EDM home after road trip. 22-4 L26

 

[rolltide]

very quiet friday....

PHI - oppose bad team away vs decent opponnt after big loss, 56-12 +133%, also meets rest tightener of 41-7 SU
FLA - oppose away fav off 4+ games of allowing <=2 goals. 89-65 +128%
NYI - play on 1H winning team off shutout win. 156-71 +121%

 

[rolltide]

TOR - oppose bad team off bad away loss vs decent opponent 56-13 +131
BUF - play on home team off b2b2b 2+ goal losses vs opponent off 1-goal game. 50-20 +139
CAR - oppose good home fav off a loss vs avg opponent. 91-105 +136
MIN - play on away dog off home fav win vs opponent off b2b wins. 58-47 +127...+135 when home team off b2b away wins
MIN and UNDER - play on away win and under team off home win vs hot home team off road trip. 46-23 +143 away, 22-41 o/u
PIT - play on unrested home team off away fav win, 49-18 +125
NYR - play on rangers after 3+ home games, 35-14. solid unders as well
PIT UNDER - play under two good teams, home unrested, total>5. 57-110 o/u
TB - oppose away dog after away fav. 146-68 +121. also meets 74-27 +130 tightener & 46-12 +138 tightener
TB - play ON lightning hosting unrested opponent, 18-3 L21 avg 4.2 gpg
CAL - oppose away dog after away fav. 146-68 +121, also meets 46-12 +138 tightener
STL - play on streaking team vs unrested opponent and better home winning % than opponent away WP. 115-57 incl 24-5 if opponent off a win

 

[jonny2k4]

What's today's analytics looking like Mr. Tide?

 

[rolltide]

PIT - oppose solid offensive team off b2b2b2b 2+ goal wins, 53-23 +153%
CAR - early season, oppose bad team favored vs another bad team, 54-27 +155%
CAR - oppose struggling fav, low winning %, off a loss vs sub-32% opponent. 42-17 +162%
CAR - bet on terrible away dog after being shutout, 53-26 +164%
DET - bet on marginally losing away favs that lost 5-7 of last 7 vs losing home team. 46-13 +140%
TB/NYI over - bet over NYI hosting unrested team, 27-10-1 o/u

 

[jonny2k4]

Amazing Night! Great job!

 

[Bourn]

Perfect

 

[nsight]

nice night rt

 

[rolltide]

YTD results vs the puck line to give you an idea how many times this year a team has won by 2+ or lost by 2+. example: Pens have 10 puck line wins in 17 overall games (vs two losses of 2+ goals) while Sabres have lost 11 of their 20 overall games by 2+ (vs two wins by 2+ goals)

Sum( margin>=2) as w, Sum( margin<=-2) as l @team and season=2014

w	l	query
2.0	11.0	Sabres and season = 2014
2.0	9.0	Blue Jackets and season = 2014
2.0	4.0	Panthers and season = 2014
2.0	6.0	Rangers and season = 2014
2.0	5.0	Avalanche and season = 2014
2.0	6.0	Coyotes and season = 2014
3.0	6.0	Devils and season = 2014
3.0	7.0	Stars and season = 2014
3.0	7.0	Oilers and season = 2014
4.0	3.0	Flyers and season = 2014
4.0	4.0	Ducks and season = 2014
4.0	3.0	Capitals and season = 2014
4.0	2.0	Senators and season = 2014
4.0	7.0	Hurricanes and season = 2014
5.0	5.0	Maple Leafs and season = 2014
5.0	3.0	Blues and season = 2014
5.0	2.0	Predators and season = 2014
5.0	1.0	Blackhawks and season = 2014
5.0	6.0	Jets and season = 2014
5.0	5.0	Islanders and season = 2014
6.0	6.0	Canucks and season = 2014
6.0	3.0	Red Wings and season = 2014
6.0	4.0	Wild and season = 2014
7.0	5.0	Canadiens and season = 2014
7.0	4.0	Bruins and season = 2014
7.0	5.0	Flames and season = 2014
7.0	4.0	Kings and season = 2014
7.0	5.0	Sharks and season = 2014
8.0	2.0	Lightning and season = 2014
10.0	2.0	Penguins and season = 2014

Showing 1 to 30 of 30 entries

 

[Bourn]

Great information. Thank you.

 

[rolltide]

unlikely to play win as it's only a system fit because of the line move....

WIN - oppose away dog that was last an away favorite and seeking revenge. 75-27 +130%
MIN - bet on team off scoring on low % of shots vs unrested opponent, 69-35 incl 12-2 if opponent off shutout loss
MIN - oppose unrested home team, not huge fav or dog, off shutout loss with 24+ shots on goal. 30-14 +137%

 

[rolltide]

Pens - play on home fav off away fav win and better rest than opponent. 110-35 +121%, 9-3 2014
Pens - play on home favs off 3+ away fav win. 55-15 +126%, 0-1 2014
Pens - play on home fav after an away shut out. 42-14 +121% (on 8-1 run)
Pens - play on super hot home fav. 52-14 +126%, 2-1 2014
Fla - play on poor team, big dog, vs winning home fav off a loss. 92-106 +136%, 2-1 2014
Nas - oppose Florida after a dog win, 62-12 +136% incl 10-0 L10
Bos - play on good team 1H season off home shut out win, 157-71 +121% also meets 46-14 +132% subset


shit load of stuff coming up for Sat...

 

[rolltide]

FLA - oppose big home fav, good team, off an away loss vs bad opponent. 92-106 +136%
NAS - oppose FLA as a dog after a dog win, 63-12 +136%
BOS - play on unrested home teams that were just away fav. 50-19 +124%, 28-10 +129% off win
BOS - play on hot home fav off away fav win, 92-29 +122 - qualifies for super hot 52-15 SU
WAS - play on hot home fav off away fav win, 92-29 +122
DET - oppose home fav or small dog off home dog win vs opponent off win, 81-99 +120%
TBL - oppose away dog off after away fav 1 goal win. 47-12 +138%
DAL - oppose away favs off b2b2b allowing 2 or less. 89-66 +127%
PIT/NYI under - play under good home dog after allowing 4+ goals, 65-108 o/u
PIT/NYI under - just about my fav play in NHL, taking UNDER in 2nd of b2b reg season especially when prev game over, home team scored 3+ last night away, and teams combined for more than 61 shots. all in play tonight....and all are 78% or better under plays
PIT/NYI over - team specific, Isles OVER hosting unrested, 28-10-1 o/u
CHI - play on in-form team not scoring on high % of recent shots. 49-22 +115% ... but Chi 0-12 L12 on road after a road game

 

[Bourn]

Yeah, I think the Pit/Isles game goes under today. Just the way sports go.