NHL systems 2014/15

[rolltide]

Winnipeg play on early struggling away team vs opponent off loss. 50-21 +166%. Also qualifies for the similar but different one which is 45-17 +171%

Buffalo oppose home dogs early in year 52-106 including 7-31 tightener. Buff also in the 33-119 SU spot of a bad dog looking for revenge from 2+ home goal loss last meeting which is also 1-17 L18 trying to avenge same-season home beating (sabres themselves 0-10).

Sharks qualify as dog after 5+ games of 30+ shots 116-91 +128% but I'm not touching them in another 5/7 with travel after shootout in altitude plus they fall into being an away dog after away fav and in the subset of being off 1-goal win and OT.

Kings and Habs both away dogs after away fav games, 60-139 -135% , and both went to OT last game putting them in a 10-40 -156% situation which are especially poor off a win like Habs (4-23 -167%)

 

[override365]

So, the plays are?
Winnipeg
Boston
Sharks
LAK
Montreal???

 

[tripleh]

So, the plays are?
Winnipeg
Boston
Sharks
LAK
Montreal???

Winnipeg
Boston
Pittsburgh (oppose LAK)
Vancouver (oppose Montreal)

Said he is passing on Sharks

 

[override365]

Winnipeg
Boston
Pittsburgh (oppose LAK)
Vancouver (oppose Montreal)

Said he is passing on Sharks

ok, thx a lot

 

[Biz]

Tide,
How about this one:

- Home fav up to -150, opponent was a road fav last game that won by 1 goal. Minnesota qualifies, curious what your bigger database comes up with. Thanks..

 

[Biz]

After reading your post, looks like you ran that one for SJ already.

Looks like Vancouver may qualify for this too? Montreal won by 1 as a road fav last game, now a road dog.

 

[Biz]

Geezus Tide, I need to wake the EFF up. I am on 3 hours sleep, had to get up early for something. Very sorry to clutter the thread. You got that one too.

Hopefully, I'll add something constructive at some point.

 

[Biz]

Ok, let me try to add something of value.

- Under 5.5, Home Fav that has been under the last 2 games, with 2 or 3 days off (no BTB and no rest longer than that).

 

[rolltide]

Tide,
How about this one:

- Home fav up to -150, opponent was a road fav last game that won by 1 goal. Minnesota qualifies, curious what your bigger database comes up with. Thanks..

HF and line >= -150 and op:AFW and op:margin = 1
SU: 83-45 (0.66, 64.8%) avg line: -127.6 / 117.4 on / against: +$2,654 / -$3,113 ROI: +16.3% / -24.3% OU: 57-65-6 (0.13, 46.7%) avg total: 5.4
SoG Pens P-Mins P1 P2 P3 Final Team 30.4 4.8 12.1 0.9 1.2 0.9 3.1 Opp 28.4 5.4 13.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.5
Date Day Season Team Opp Site P1 P2 P3 Final Line Total SUm SUr OUr ot Oct 30, 2014 Thursday 2014 Wild Sharks home -145 5.0 Oct 30, 2014 Thursday 2014 Canucks Canadiens home -135 5.0

 

[rolltide]

Ok, let me try to add something of value.

- Under 5.5, Home Fav that has been under the last 2 games, with 2 or 3 days off (no BTB and no rest longer than that).

not seeing anything on this one. no fit tonight either

HF and p:U and pp:U and 2 <= rest <= 3 and total = 5.5
SU: 175-134 (0.43, 56.6%) avg line: -160.9 / 147.9 on / against: -$2,864 / +$1,253 ROI: -5.8% / +4.1% OU: 144-165-0 (0.18, 46.6%) avg total: 5.5

 

[rolltide]

Both ANH/DAL and DET/LAK fit into solid 21-48-4 o/u spot with away team off being shutout away and total <=5.5. these are 2-1-1 o/u this year ... same we played and won with mtl/cal this week. ANH/DAL also in bigger system, 41-88-2 o/u playing under with small-med dogs vs decent teams when they're off a shutout loss.


Preds bad spot of away dog after away fav, 60-142 -136% and also meet a 22-68 -148% tightener looking for revenge


Wings fit a streaking home system with 47-21 SU spot and also 36-5 SU home off a win and facing unrested opponent. Honestly really don't like the line though...was -102 at betonline and dove down to -122. Also don't like to play both side and under with a 5 ... just no room for error so either detroit or under or skip the game but wouldn't bet both

 

[finite]

With the Preds now a road fav does the situation change?

 

[1958]

rolltide,
are you going to start a thread for NBA too?

 

[rolltide]

rolltide,
are you going to start a thread for NBA too?

yeah, probably. haven't had any time for NBA but as season goes along I'll jump in.



saturday.....

Leafs in 17-52 SU spot of an early season home dog that scored 2+ last game and meets the 4-24 SU qualifier as well as the 1-13 SU L14 as they scored 3+ last game. bad spot Leafs...


Bruins nice 107-34 spot playing on home favs off away fav win with equal or more rest than opponent. As Sens are off a loss this can tighten to 70-19 SU which is 8-1 L9


Arizona in simple spot of opposing bad favorite vs bad team. Theses favs are 26-53 L79 and when fav away are 5-15 L20 (although 4-3 L7). Arizona also in another bad system of 32-60 SU -140% which is 17-41 SU -150% when these bad teams are here off a loss. Canes also in great spot of 49-20 SU home team off b2b2b multiple goal defeats and playing team off 1-goal game.


Devils and Wild in 102-42 spot (15-2 L147) betting on favs off a shootout home fav win and a day of rest. Not a huge ROI, 119%, due to lines and Devils in a bad spot of being a huge fav after scoring 5-8 goals in b2b games which has been a nice spot to take the underdog away team. Wild, however in additional 67-30 SU spot off of b2b 40+ shot games vs opponent off a loss.


Oilers rested home team off a loss vs opponent on great scoring run which is a 133-72 SU spot with a +124% ROI. First one this season....


Sabres in same spot as 2 other losses this year trying to avenge a home defeat of 2+ goals last meeting and being a horrible team. These teams win just 20% of time are 1-17 in 2014 (calendar) and Sabres 0-11 in this spot. Pens also off a home shutout win in 1H of season which is 70% winnings spot and meet the 41-13 SU qualifier for 76% wins.


Blues in both the same spots as Penguins after home shut out including the 76% tightener at 131% ROI


NYI/SJ 41-89-2 o/u situation as NYI are a decent dog away after getting shut out
​

 

[1958]

anybody playing sabres? there are also systems againste them but none as profitable....

http://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query...als>=4+and+date>20111001&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

SU:

25-3 (1.64, 89.3%)

avg line: 104.4 / -116.9

on / against: +$2,680 / -$2,831

ROI: +79.0% / -78.6%

 

[rolltide]

Arizona UNDER no rest away after getting shutout away, 22-49-4 o/u

Carolina in 8-34 SU spot of being early season big home dog

Blackhawks in a 57-109 o/u spot of having two decent teams with home team unrested and playing with revenge

Habs OPPOSE big home favs after a road shootout where they allowed 3+ goals. +156% for away team

Canucks in play on spot for home fav off on nice winning streak with away fav win last game ... 91-26 SU spot but don't qualify for 26-4 SU subset. Preds though are 0-9 away after away loss that was preceded by a win (aka, not in a losing streak). Canucks also in great 49-16 SU spot as unrested home team off being away fav which has produced 13 straight winners and 12 of those in regulation. Those teams are also 30-5 SU if they scored 3+ goals previous night


so:

ARI/WAS u5.5
CHI/WIN u5.5
LA Kings
Calgary
Vancouver

 

[rolltide]

anybody playing sabres? there are also systems againste them but none as profitable....

http://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query?output=default&sdql=H+and+p%3Agoals%3C%3D2+and+pp%3Agoals%3C%3D2+and+ppp%3Agoals%3C%3D2+and+op%3Agoals%3E%3D4+and+opp%3Agoals%3E%3D4+and+date%3E20111001&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

SU:

25-3 (1.64, 89.3%)

avg line: 104.4 / -116.9

on / against: +$2,680 / -$2,831

ROI: +79.0% / -78.6%

i've got stuff both for, and against, the sabres. so if you're ever gonna play them I'd give them a shot tonight in regulation but i'd rather use the money on a lotto ticket

18-15-10-15 ... that's their SOG L4 games. shit i think the Blackhawks had that in 3rd period last night

 

[rolltide]

not much history here...wow. only 2nd time in dbase history where a team is playing off b2b2b2b <=18 shot game

p:shots on goal <= 18 and pp:shots on goal <= 18 and ppp:shots on goal <= 18 and pppp:shots on goal <= 18
SU: 0-1 (-1.00, 0.0%) avg line: 169.0 / -187.0 on / against: -$100 / +$100 ROI: -100.0% / +69.4% OU: 1-0-0 (1.50, 100.0%) avg total: 5.5
SoG Pens P-Mins P1 P2 P3 Final Team 25.0 2.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 Opp 33.0 3.0 6.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0
Date Day Season Team Opp Site P1 P2 P3 Final Line Total SUm SUr OUr ot Nov 02, 2014 Sunday 2014 Sabres Red Wings home 205 5.0 Mar 24, 2012 Saturday 2011 Maple Leafs Rangers home 1-1 1-1 1-1 3-4 133 5.5 -1 L O 1 Showing 1 to 2 of 2 entries

only 6th time when i push those #'s to <=20 shots

p:shots on goal <= 20 and pp:shots on goal <= 20 and ppp:shots on goal <= 20 and pppp:shots on goal <= 20
SU: 3-2 (0.40, 60.0%) avg line: 120.8 / -133.2 on / against: +$132 / -$150 ROI: +23.6% / -24.2% OU: 2-3-0 (-0.80, 40.0%) avg total: 5.6
SoG Pens P-Mins P1 P2 P3 Final Team 31.2 5.4 16.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 2.6 Opp 30.4 5.0 14.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 2.2
Date Day Season Team Opp Site P1 P2 P3 Final Line Total SUm SUr OUr ot Nov 02, 2014 Sunday 2014 Sabres Red Wings home 205 5.0 Mar 24, 2012 Saturday 2011 Maple Leafs Rangers home 1-1 1-1 1-1 3-4 133 5.5 -1 L O 1 Nov 03, 2011 Thursday 2011 Ducks Rangers away 0-1 1-0 0-0 1-2 115 5.5 -1 L U 1 Oct 19, 2009 Monday 2009 Oilers Canucks home 0-1 1-0 1-0 2-1 103 5.5 1 W U 0 Oct 29, 2007 Monday 2007 Sharks Stars away 1-1 0-1 3-0 4-2 129 5.0 2 W O 0 Nov 13, 2006 Monday 2006 Penguins Flyers home 0-0 2-1 1-1 3-2 -160 6.5 1 W U 0 Showing 1 to 6 of 6 entries

 

[rolltide]

njd/dal - oppose away dogs that were just away favs. 142-62 +124% ... dal meets 68-24 +132 subset, devils meet 44-10 +145% subset

pens - 1H season winning team after shutout home win 154-70 +120 and also meets 43-13 +131% & the 26-8 +164% tighteners

jets - rested home fav off away shutout. 37-10 +124% line -112 or higher only (also 7-1 if opponent off away win) - watch line

boston - oppose florida or fla TT under as dog after dog win. 60-12 SU, fla avg 1.8 gpg in this spot

hawks - oppose early season home dog off 2+ goals scored vs team winning >40% of games. 63-21 SU +132%
hawks - play on team outshooting 5+ straight opponents by 5+ each game. 131-58 +127%
hawks under - UNDER good team at home, dog, after allowing 4+ 63-106-13 o/u but pass if total stays at 5

 

[rolltide]

btw, anyone want to take on nba for this year? i don't really have the time or interest to do it before january on a daily basis. let me know. i can send you my list to run each day and then you just post on the forum...just PM me if interested