NHL Picks for Wednesday. This season: + $12 988 (209-162-35)

[Mathemagician]

Hi everyone,

I have posted my NHL picks to another forum every day during this season. From now on I will post them here as well.

Mathemagician

Was - Pho Over 5 -138, stake $100
NJ - Fla Under 5 -144, stake $100

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This is a little off the topic but what does the book think the true odds are if the money line on a game is +250, -300 and how did you figure that out?

Thanks

 

[Mathemagician]

True odds (by bookmaker) are easy to derive if the odds are in decimal presentation.

+250 is 3.5 in decimal odds, and -300 is 1.33

Now, the true odds are:

3.5 * (1/3.5 + 1/1.33) = 3.625 which is +263
and
1.33 * (1/3.5 + 1/1.33) = 1.381 which is -263

And an easy way to convert american odds to decimal odds (and vice versa), is like this:

If american odds is over +100, then divide it by hundred and add one, and it's in decimals: +250/100+1 = 3.5

And if american odds are under -100, then divide it by hundred and forget the minus sign, and then divide number one with that value, and add one: 1/(300/100)+1 = 1.33

 

i maintain that anyone laying those prices consistently will lose in long run. perhaps enlighten us why you feel otherwise? maybe offer some math to back up why? if you split today, you lose. oops!

bb

 

Thank You