***NHL Computer Picks***

[ewitty]

I'm running two systems....Big Dog picks and computer picks.

What we are talking about is the Big Dog system. >+200 dogs.

As I said...I can't pick which ones will win...but I think I can pick a group of them that might give us profit by playing all of them.

Any one of them should never win ...thats why they are +200...they aren't expected to win. But of course...sometimes, large underdogs win.

But if I follow just some of them shouldn't I realize the same long-term profit, only slower?

 

[Mistermj]

But if I follow just some of them shouldn't I realize the same long-term profit, only slower?

If the sample size was 100 dogs I guess that would be true.

But we obviously won't have many picks.

 

[ewitty]

If the sample size was 100 dogs I guess that would be true.

But we obviously won't have many picks.

But that shouldn't matter. If you play 10 picks and I tail only 1 of them at random, then I should still get the same edge out of that 1 random play as you did. In that situation, I should still show a long-term profit from my 1 play. It makes no difference that the 1 I chose to play won or lost, only that it had a positive expectation.

By passing on your 9 other plays (assuming they had a positive expectation), I am giving up those 9 edges, meaning it will take me longer to get to where you are, but I will still see the same profit in the long run, it will just take me 10x as long to get there.

 

[Doug]

I can't pick which one I think will win...but with the large odds...I think I can pick a group of them that will pay out plus money over time.

Make sense?

I like to parlay the huge dogs with over, but I can't prove that it makes it any better. It just seems the dog needs to score a lot to win, like a 3-3 game, that goes OT.

 

[Mistermj]

But that shouldn't matter. If you play 10 picks and I tail only 1 of them at random, then I should still get the same edge out of that 1 random play as you did. In that situation, I should still show a long-term profit from my 1 play. It makes no difference that the 1 I chose to play won or lost, only that it had a positive expectation.

By passing on your 9 other plays (assuming they had a positive expectation), I am giving up those 9 edges, meaning it will take me longer to get to where you are, but I will still see the same profit in the long run, it will just take me 10x as long to get there.

You are right...but as a practical matter do you want to assume we will both be here for 5 years to ensure you don't start off on a bad binomial distribution pattern and have time to recoup it ?

This is getting a little silly.

 

[ewitty]

You are right...but as a practical matter do you want to assume we will both be here for 5 years to ensure you don't start off on a bad binomial distribution pattern and have time to recoup it ?

This is getting a little silly.

You're right, sorry. BOL

 

[Mistermj]

No picks tonight.

 

[Mistermj]

Hey MJ, I was looking for a little bit of advice with your computer picks. Currently, a 1 unit bet for me is the minimum possible bet I can place. However, your computer picks have both 1 unit and 1/2 unit plays. What would you suggest I do with the 1/2 unit plays? Thanks again, I enjoy following your computer picks. :drink:

:think2:

What can I do? I do not understand your question because the solution is on your end.

 

[Mistermj]

No picks today...picked up another half unit last time. Updated record below.

Tampa +170 1/2 unit $250 :>(
Buffalo -130 1 unit $500



NHL Computer Picks (Dogs < +200,small Faves and 1.5 )
9-9 +$2250 +4.5 Units

I'm scrapping the Big Dog method...it's a pain in the ass...it was worth experimenting with...but I need to keep streamlining things. Too much stuff going on.

I might drop hockey all together...not sure...I'm really not into it very much...although we have done ok so far.

 

[caifora70]

you are a funny capper, alot of games and no pick today........:nohead:

 

[Mistermj]

One computer pick...

Anaheim +1 1/2 -120 1 unit $500

Good luck!

I'll keep pluggin away here with just the computer picks.

 

[roc18]

Hope this system starts to rebound, hopped on at the wrong time good luck man.

 

[Mistermj]

It's been a while...maybe you can tell I'm not really into hockey much...I've tried but it just doesn't do much for me.

But we still have a winning record here...

Detroit -140 looks like good value to me...a little higher than I like to play...but I can't go with the puck line on this one.

Good luck!

 

[Icemantbi]

BOL MJ....

But -140 is alot of chalk to lay even for the Wings, when they are playing the Sharks

 

[Icemantbi]

4-1 late in the third for the MoTown boys...

That's what happens when I don't tail.... great call MJ... congrats

 

[shaprie123]

4-1 late in the third for the MoTown boys...

That's what happens when I don't tail.... great call MJ... congrats

Oh i know how you feel........ decided not to tail tonight and BOOM! haha..

good pick MJ!!! Keep up the great work!!

 

[Mistermj]

Updated record....nothing of value today.

NHL Computer Picks (Dogs < +200,small Faves and 1.5 )
10-10 +$2150 +4.3 Units

 

[TraderMike]

what's up mj, putting hockey on the back burner for now?