A nice bounce back last week, going 3-2 and winning the 3% play again. The top play (3%) is now 4-1 this year and hopefully we'll continue to grind out a profit this week.
All side opinions went 7-7 last week and they are now 53-45-3 54% over the first seven weeks this year.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND -5 Cleveland 37.5
Everyone keeps waiting for NE to collapse because of all of their injuries but it doesn't look like it's going to happen. During the preseason, NE looked very good. They are starting to look like that team once again. The numbers for NE are really just average, gaining 4.8 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl and allowing 4.9 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. But, somehow, someway, they are getting the job done. As for Cleveland, they bring an anemic offense (4.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl) along with a better than average defense. Unfortunately for them, there is a weak link to their defense, which is the rush defense. I used SD as my top play last week because of Cleveland's inability to stop the run, allowing 5.1 ypr against teams averaging just 4.2 ypr. And, because of that, NE qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 510-391-30 (21-11-1 TY), including it's best subset, which is 135-56-6 (6-2-1 TY). But Cleveland falls into a very solid contrarian situation, which is 108-55-5 (2-0 TY) and they also qualify in another contrarian turnover situation, which is 754-588-30. Line appears to be about right, but the situations lean towards Cleveland and I will to, in a bounce back roll, after losing as a favorite last week. NEW ENGLAND 17 CLEVELAND 14
BALTIMORE -2 Denver 38
This is a tough game for me to call because the situations lean one way, the value leans another way, yet there are key injuries for Denver that must be accounted for. Misleading final #1 comes from Cincinnati last week, where the Ravens dominated the game from the stats department, but failed on the scoreboard because of turnovers. That's happened a lot this year to them and they'll need to change that if they hope to get any better. Baltimore gained 390 yards last week to only 303 for Cincinnati and averaged 6.6 yppl to only 5.1 yppl for Cincinnati. But a -3 in the turnover department killed any hopes they had of winning that game. Denver also suffered a -3 in the turnover department and was out averaged by Minnesota, 4.7 yppl to 6.8 yppl. In their defense, two long pass plays really did them in, along with an interception returned for a touchdown. But, that's life in the NFL with a back up quarterback. They are now down to their third string qb, in Danny Kanell, who looked pretty good last week. But, often, back up qb's look good until a team sees them on game film and can game plan against them. Baltimore has been just average on offense this year, gaining 5.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.1 yppl. Obviously, they have been very strong rushing the ball (5.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr) and very unproductive throwing the ball, averaging just 4.5 yps against 5.8 yps. They did average 8.9 yps last week so maybe things are changing a little. But they were also playing from behind and some of those yards were mop up yards. Baltimore gets a break this week by going against just an average rush defense, in Denver, who allows 4.1 ypr against 4.1 ypr. The strength of the Denver defense has been their pass defense, which is allowing 5.0 yps against 5.9 yps. But, for a team like Baltimore, who likes to run the ball, they should have some success on the ground. Baltimore actually qualifies in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 71-31-3 and 129-53-7 and set them up nicely here. The strength of the Denver offense has been their running game, averaging 4.9 ypr against 4.4 ypr but they'll face a Baltimore defense that is above average against both, the run and the pass, allowing just 3.6 ypr against 3.8 ypr. But Baltimore's poor defensive effort last week, allowing 34 points to Cincinnati, sets them up in a negative 60-125-10 situation, including the best subset of that, which is 22-65-2 and plays against Baltimore here. Value also appears to lie with Denver but the situations lean towards Baltimore and so will I. BALTIMORE 21 DENVER 17
PITTSBURGH -1 St. Louis 46
I've gone against the Rams three straight weeks now and lost all three times. And, I'm going against them again this week. The Rams have only played two games on the road this year and haven't been on the road in over a month (three straight home games surrounding a bye week). The Steelers come off a bye week, after playing a good game at Denver but coming up short (they did cover for me as a 3% play). If you go back to my write up for that Denver game, you'll notice how I commented on Pittsburgh's defense has played fantastic this year but they've been given extremely short fields to play with because of turnovers. I talked about how they had allowed 62 points either directly to turnovers or kick returns or their opponent having to go less than 25 yards for a touchdown. I talked about if you removed those numbers from their defense, they were allowing only 14 points per game, instead of the 26 points per game they were allowing going into that game. They only turned it over once in that game and allowed Denver only 17 points. Their defense has been solid, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl, which includes just 3.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 5.5 yps against 6.2 yps. And that will match up very well against the Rams offense, which isn't running the ball well at all, averaging just 3.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr. Until last week's outburst of 4.9 ypr against GB, the Rams hadn't topped the 3.8 ypr mark. The reason I've chosen to go against the Rams as of late is because of their defense. The defense is just not that good. They are allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.2 yppl, which includes 4.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 5.9 yps against 5.8 yps. Take out their two games against anemic teams Arizona and Atlanta, and they have allowed at least 4.4 ypr to every other team. Can Pittsburgh take advantage of that? I'm not sure because their rushing offense has been terrible this year too, averaging just 3.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr. But, at home, they haven't allowed a team to rush for better than 3.8 ypr, which includes their game against Baltimore. So, I don't think either team will rush the ball very well, but I think Pittsburgh has the better chance to succeed. Pittsburgh has been successful again this year throwing the ball, averaging 5.8 yps against 5.6 yps so they should have some success in the air again this week. With the turnover problem, I think Cowher would like to establish the run a little more and by inserting Bettis into the starting lineup, he may be looking to run the ball a little more as well. The Rams have succeeded partly because they have won the turnover battle the last three weeks but they actually qualify in a negative situation based on that premise, which is a 77-30-1 play against them here. Teams don't continue to turn the ball over or get turnovers, in general, with the exception of a few teams. And, a lot of their success has come because of fumbles, which are even more random, meaning their luck is even more likely to come to an end very soon. The Rams have also scored an awful lot of points here the last few weeks, which has kept this line down. Because of that, they qualify in another negative situation, which is a 79-41-5 play against situation. The Rams, after allowing 11 sacks the first two weeks, are now keeping more people on the offensive line to block for Bulger (only three sacks the last four weeks). That generally means they are only sending two and sometimes three receivers downfield, and keeping the tight ends in to block. Although they have been able to score some points because of turnovers and anemic teams they have been facing, they aren't the same explosive offense they used to be because of this. Ball control has actually become more important to Mike Martz. That'll suit just fine against a very good Steeler defense. Meanwhile, like I said earlier, I believe Pittsburgh would like to run the ball a little more and take some of the pressure off of Tommy Maddox. This game sets up into two terrific under situations, which are 293-218-11 (7-2 TY) and 222-118-6 (6-1 TY). My final numbers indicate about 43 points being scored but, remember, Pittsburgh is actually allowing about 10 points less because of the turnovers they have put themselves in, which means their defense is really only allowing about 14 points per game instead of the 24 points per game their numbers show. And, the Rams have succeeded as of late because of turnovers, which are due to turn on them. Pittsburgh and the under look to be the winning ticket here. PITTSBURGH 24 ST LOUIS 14
Seattle -1.5 CINCINNATI 42
Read my write up on the Baltimore/Denver game to find out how misleading Cincinnati's final last week was. And, quite honestly, so was Seattle's. Seattle dominated that game, from a stats standpoint, gaining 335 yards to only 221 for Chicago and averaging 5.9 yppl to just 3.2 for the Bears. Turnovers were even but for some reason, they just couldn't put the Bears away. Chicago did control the clock, with 34+ minutes of ball control, which had something to do with it. Cincinnati does qualify in a 152-102-10 home underdog momentum situation this week but Seattle qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 210-391-30 (21-11-1 TY) but they don't qualify in any of the better subsets. Let's face it. Seattle has the better offense (5.3 yppl against 5.2 yppl to just 4.7 yppl for Cincy against 4.8 yppl) and the much better defense. Their defense is allowing just 4.5 yppl against teams averaging 5.2 yppl, while Cincy is allowing 5.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl. The strength of Cincinnati's offense has been their passing game, averaging 6.1 yps against 5.2 yps but they'll face a very tough test against Seattle's pass defense, which is allowing just 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps. Very short number for the team with the better offense and defense, who should be focused after seeing what Cincinnati did to Baltimore last week and getting their own scare against Chicago last week. SEATTLE 23 CINCINNATI 15
CHICAGO -3 Detroit
Does anyone really care about this game? Detroit is below average on offense, gaining just 4.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl but their rushing offense has been getting better, averaging 3.8 ypr against 3.9 ypr. They'll go against a Chicago defense that is allowing 5.5 yppl against 5.5 yppl but has been poor against the rush, allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.5 ypr. For Chicago on offense, they are below average, gaining just 4.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl, including being good with the rush (4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr) but poor with the passing game (3.7 yps against 5.7 yps). They'll face a Detroit defense, which is about average, allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.5 yppl but better against the rush than the pass. But, the Bears can't throw the ball anyway, and with Chris Chandler at qb, he's a sitting duck with any type of pass rush. Both teams qualify in contrarian situations, but the value seems to lie with Detroit and I will lean that way as well, because of the value and the match up seems to favor Detroit slightly. DETROIT 23 CHICAGO 19
MINNESOTA -5.5 NY Giants 44
If you believe turnovers never change and teams getting them continue to get them and teams committing them continue to commit them, then the Vikings are your play this week. But, I'm telling you that just doesn't happen. Trying to predict when it changes is another battle, in and of itself, but this week looks like a good shot at it happening. The Giants qualify in my turnover table situation, which is 754-588-30 since 1983. The fact the Giants have lost three games in a row is just about directly related to turnovers. And, they must change that if they are to win this week. But looking back at their last three games, they have dominated the competition, only to lose the game because of turnovers. Their game last week was actually even in the turnover battle and they ended up losing the game because of the punt return. But their games against Miami and New England, they won the yardage and yards per play battle but lost because of massive turnovers. For the Vikings, their defense is allowing 5.2 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl but only 17 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game. That means they are allowing the yards but getting the turnovers to keep other teams from scoring. No question the Minnesota passing offense has been nothing short of spectacular this year, gaining 8.3 yps against teams allowing just 6.2 yps. They'll face a Giants defense, which has been above average defending the pass, allowing just 5.4 yps against 5.7 yps. Still, the Vikings will get their yards through the air this week. But the Vikings rushing game hasn't been as good this year, gaining just 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr. Even more telling is if you take out their games against Chicago, Detroit and Atlanta (three sorry ass teams), they have failed to average more than 4.3 ypr against Denver, San Francisco and Green Bay. Against those three teams, they are averaging just 3.7 ypr. They are still throwing the ball successfully against those teams but the running game hasn't been as good. And except for the Green Bay game (where the Packers got down early and gave up on the run) and against Detroit, they have allowed at least 4.7 ypr against each of their other opponents, including Atlanta and Chicago (who actually is above average rushing the ball). The Giants average 4.1 ypr against teams allowing 3.5 ypr so they should get some yards rushing the ball and control the clock some. They also have the offensive weapons at the receiver position to do some damage through the air. They just need to stop turning the ball over. The Giants also qualify in another contrarian situation, which is 121-55-6, including a subset of that, which is 105-38-5. The final numbers support Minnesota but they should because of the turnover situation for both teams. That's why I say situations are better indicators than the value because teams don't continue to turn the ball over. Unless your numbers take into account this information, the situations are the better indicator. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 293-218-11 (7-2 TY). MINNESOTA 22 NY GIANTS 21
Tennessee -4 JACKSONVILLE 44
Teams that continue to overcome situations going against them, week after week, are usually teams that go far into the playoffs. I have gone against Tennessee each of the past three weeks and gone 1-2 in those games. The lone win was the New England game and Tennessee could have won and covered that game too. But, the situations go against them this week and they are simply too strong to ignore them. I'll either go down in flames again or they will finally catch up to Tennessee. Misleading boxscore #1 comes from the Titans game last week. Yes, they dominated the game on the scoreboard, winning 37-17. But, if you simply looked at the final numbers, you would have seen Carolina out gain Tennessee 383-348 and out average them 5.5 yppl to 5.4 yppl. And then you would look and see Carolina turned the ball over four times and you might conclude that Carolina was the right side. But, you must look further into the numbers to really realize what happened. Tennessee averaged 3.7 ypr to Carolina's 2.6 ypr and averaged 7.6 yps to Carolina's 6.4 yps. If they won both of those battles, why were they out gained and out averaged? Simply because Tennessee got the lead and ran the ball 36 times to only 17 times for Carolina, while Carolina was playing catch up mode, by throwing the ball 49 times to only 25 times for Tennessee. Just make sure you understand the numbers when you look at them. For this game, the match up is a good one for Jacksonville. This game, as do most games, will come down to turnovers. If Bryon Leftwich, who I like an awful lot, can avoid throwing the turnovers, which might be asking a lot, they can win this game. The weakness to the Tennessee defense, which is allowing 5.7 yppl against 5.1 yppl, is their pass defense, which is allowing 6.6 yps against 6.0 yps. Jacksonville can take advantage of that, as they are averaging 6.3 yps against 6.2 yps and I think they will find some holes in the Tennessee pass defense. The weakness to the Jacksonville defense, is their pass defense as well, allowing 6.4 yps against 6.1 yps. And, they'll face a very stiff challenge from the Tennessee passing game, which is averaging 8.1 yps against 6.2 yps. Tennessee still can't run the ball and Jacksonville stops the run very well, allowing just 3.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr. Hard to tell if that will come into play here with the passing games both likely to succeed but the Jacksonville defense is playing better, from a yards perspective, but allowing points because of the turnovers. I'm betting that changes this week. Jacksonville qualifies in my turnover table situation, which is 754-588-30 since 1983. They also qualify in a two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 108-53-6 and 510-391-30, including a subset, which is 235-134-12. Value lies with Tennessee, of course, but if the turnovers turn a little, Jacksonville stands a good chance. Tennessee, who has been getting the turnovers, also qualifies in a negative 62-101-2 situation that implies their luck will run out this week. The over also looks good in this game, with both teams having the ability to throw the ball in this game. My final number suggest about 51 points being scored. JACKSONVILLE 27 TENNESSEE 24
TAMPA BAY -6.5 Dallas 36.5
Solid match up between two teams heading in opposite directions. I was wrong when I picked Washington over Tampa Bay two weeks ago but was right on, for the same reasons, when I picked San Francisco last week. Actually, in hindsight, SF has a much better defense than Washington and has the big playmakers that were needed to beat Tampa Bay last week. But I took both of those teams because they fit solid fundamental rushing situations. The facts continue that TB can't run the ball (3.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr) and aren't doing much to stop the rush either, allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.2 ypr. Last year their pass defense was out standing, and while it is still above average, it isn't nearly as good, allowing 5.3 yps against 5.5 yps. And, it might continue to get worse with the injuries they are suffering on defense. Life sure is harder when you have injuries and they stayed relatively healthy last year but are finding the going much tougher with their current rash of injuries, which is depleting their depth. This week, Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 510-390-30 (21-11-1 TY), including the best subset, which is 135-56-6 (6-2-1 TY). The Dallas rushing offense is actually below average as well, gaining just 3.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr but their rush defense is outstanding, allowing just 3.2 ypr against 4.0 ypr. And their pass defense is allowing just 4.9 yps against 5.2 yps, which is key against a solid TB pass offense, which is averaging 6.8 yps against 6.3 yps. The Dallas passing offense has been great this year, gaining 7.0 yps against 6.4 yps. They have plenty of speed at the receiver position to take advantage of TB if they come out of the cover-2 scheme and are forced to play man to man defense. TB does qualify in a very solid bounce back situation that is 120-67-4, based on their bad loss last week. And TB is 19-1 off a loss as a favorite in their last 20 tries (2-0 TY) but Bill Parcells is now 34-15-1 as an away dog of more than three points. Situations lean both ways, numbers suggest about a five point game. Looks like a great game to watch but not bet on. I'll lean with the dog. TAMPA BAY 21 DALLAS 17
NEW ORLEANS -2 Carolina 39
Even though I was on Carolina last week because of the situations they were in, I've talked for weeks now about how their record might be a little deceiving. Carolina is allowing just 18 points per game against teams averaging 23 points per game but their defense is allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.4 yppl, which makes their defense average, from a stats standpoint. They are allowing 3.9 ypr against 3.7 ypr, while NO is averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.2 ypr and should be able to move the ball some on this defense. The NO defense is just average, as well, allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl but the Carolina offense has been below average, averaging just 4.9 yppl against 5.4 yppl and they've been horrific trying to throw the ball, averaging just 5.4 yps against 6.4 yps. NO does qualify in a 102-60-11 (6-3 TY) home momentum situation based on their convincing win last week but they don't qualify in the better subset (just 34-32 without the subset). My final numbers make this line two so the line appears to be about right. I will side with, what I consider to be the better team, and that is New Orleans. NEW ORLEANS 20 CAROLINA 15
San Francisco -6.5 ARIZONA 41
Arizona comes off a bye this week, while San Francisco comes off their dominating win over Tampa Bay last week. I used San Francisco last week because they fit some very strong fundamental rushing situations, and rush they did. SF gained 212 yards rushing last week at 5.2 yards per rush. They also passed the ball for another 246 yards at 8.2 yps, gaining 458 total yards at 6.5 yppl. TB gained 326 themselves at 5.7 yppl. Even with that success, SF is still only gaining 4.4 ypr against 4.5 ypr but their passing game has been succeeding, gaining 6.0 yps against 5.6 yps. As I mentioned last week, it's been their defense that is playing so well for them, allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.1 yppl and succeeding against both, the run and the pass. For Arizona, well, their defense hasn't been that good, although they have defended the run pretty well, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 4.4 ypr but they're allowing a whopping 6.9 yps against 5.9 yps. They can't run the ball themselves, gaining just 3.4 ypr against 3.9 yps but they have thrown the ball well, gaining 5.9 yps against 5.7 yps. Arizona qualifies as a turnover table system play, which is 754-688-30 since 1983 and they also qualify in another contrarian situation. Final numbers support SF but the situations are always considered stronger for me and I will lean their way. Arizona simply isn't good enough for me to play but the situations dictate SF comes back down to earth and Arizona rises to the occasion. SAN FRANCISCO 21 ARIZONA 20
PHILADELPHIA -3 NY Jets 36.5
Chad Pennington will play in this game, although he won't start. I've been saying for weeks now that the Jets offense has actually played well, in terms of gaining yards, but they haven't been able to turn those yards into points. They are averaging 5.1 yppl against 5.0 yppl so they are above average but only scoring 16 points per game against teams allowing 19 points per game. They have thrown the ball well, averaging 6.3 yps against 5.9 yps but they will face a stiff test from the Philadelphia secondary this week, which is allowing 5.6 yps against 6.0 yps. The Jets haven't been able to run the ball, gaining just 3.4 ypr against 3.7 ypr and I don't see that changing much against a Philly defense, which is allowing just 3.0 ypr against 3.7 ypr. The Jets did rush the ball well last week, gaining 136 yards at 5.0 ypr and they have gained at least 118 yards in each of their last two games, but two games ago, they still only averaged 3.6 ypr so I can't really say their rushing game is back yet. Meanwhile, I don't see them stopping Philly from running the ball. Yes, Philly has been terrible trying to pass the ball this year, gaining just 3.5 yps against 5.4 yps and the Jets have stopped the pass very well, allowing just 5.4 yps against 6.1 yps. But when it comes to the run, Philly is averaging 4.8 ypr against 3.8 ypr and the Jets are allowing 4.4 ypr against 3.7 ypr. Two games ago the Jets held Buffalo to just 53 yards at 2.8 ypr but Buffalo has been terrible trying to run the ball and played most of the game from behind. In every other game, the Jets have allowed teams to rush for at least 147 yards and 4.1 ypr, at a minimum, including allowing Houston to run for 169 yards at 4.7 ypr last week. Philly qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 510-391-30 (21-11-1 TY) but they don't qualify in any of the better subsets. They also qualify in another rushing situation, which is 128-50-7. Final numbers actually support the Jets to win this game by three points but, as I have said all year, the situations are stronger than the final numbers and I will lean with them and Philadelphia to be able to get the job done on the ground on Sunday. PHILADELPHIA 20 NY JETS 14
INDIANAPOLIS -13 Houston 42.5
The situations lean heavily towards Houston this week. They have leaned towards Houston in each of the past two weeks as well but Houston has failed to cover those games. Why? Simply because they have had bad match ups the last two weeks, and guess what? They get another bad match up again this week. The problem with Houston is their pass defense, which is allowing an unheard of 8.0 yps against teams averaging just 6.7 yps. The rush defense hasn't been good either, allowing 4.2 ypr against 3.8 ypr but it sure looks respectable when you compare it to their pass defense. Indy must be chomping at the bit to play Houston as they average 7.5 yps against 6.0 yps. Indy hasn't run the ball well this year, gaining just 3.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr but if they can throw at will, they will eventually be able to run the ball as well against a poor Houston rush defense. Meanwhile, the Indy defense hasn't been too stellar themselves, playing their cover-2 schemes, which has allowed teams to rush for 4.7 ypr against 3.8 ypr. They have played solid pass defense, allowing just 5.8 yps against 6.4 yps but they'll face a pretty good Houston passing attack, that is averaging 6.5 yps against 6.1 yps. When Houston has played the other elite passing teams in the league, they have been lit up, allowing 42 points to Kansas City (7.0 yps against 6.1 yps) and 38 points to Tennessee (8.1 yps against 6.2 yps) and I don't see it being much different this week. Indy allows 5.3 yppl and against the two other teams they have faced this year that allow at least 5.3 yppl or more, Houston has scored 14 points against Kansas City (5.4 yppl) and 17 points against Tennessee (5.7 yppl). If they can get their 17 points in this game, which I think they can (Indy has allowed 21+ points in each of their last three games), then this game should fly over the total of 43. Indianapolis should be good for 28 points, at least, and Houston should be able to get their 20 points. This game actually qualifies in a 75-41-2 over situation, which is 2-0 this year. My final numbers show about 52 points being scored in this game and I think there is tremendous value towards the over, along with a solid situation to support it. Houston does qualify in a very solid contrarian situation, which is 104-37-5. Because of the situations, despite the poor match up, I will lean towards Houston, but the play here is the over. INDIANAPOLIS 31 HOUSTON 20
KANSAS CITY -6.5 Buffalo 43.5
The mood in Buffalo isn't very good, knowing this team has underachieved their expectations so far this year but maybe last week provided a glimpse of hope for the Bills. Buffalo destroyed what is appearing to be a weak Washington team. Buffalo gained 432 yards at 6.5 yppl and allowed Washington to only gain 169 yards at 3.2 yppl. But, most surprising for Buffalo, was their rushing game, which gained 196 yards at 5.0 ypr. That was obviously solid improvement but still leaves the team averaging only 3.1 ypr against 3.6 ypr. The passing game has been about average and may be without Eric Moulds again this week. But their defense has played fantastic so far, allowing just 4.2 yppl against 4.8 yppl and they have defended the pass extremely well, allowing just 4.6 yps against 5.6 yps. Their rushing defense has been about average, allowing 3.9 ypr against 3.8 ypr. Naturally they will get a solid test from the undefeated Chiefs this week. Kansas City had won three straight games that they may not have deserved to win before finally playing a solid game last week. Although it came down to the last play, they played well enough to deserve that win. The Chiefs offense has played well this year, although not quite as well as some people expect. Still, they are averaging 5.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl and throwing the ball for 7.0 yps against 6.1 yps. Again, they will face a very good test from Buffalo this week because the Bills defend the pass extremely well. On defense, KC has been much better than last year, but still average, allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.3 yppl. Kansas City qualifies in a 168-118-9 situation that actually plays against Buffalo in a letdown spot. That situation is a winner but not the strongest situations that I use. The value also appears to lie with Kansas City here. I will lean with them because of the situation and the value but I think Buffalo could be a pretty good dog in this game. KANSAS CITY 26 BUFFALO 17
Miami -3 SAN DIEGO 37.5
San Diego won their first game last week, in easy fashion over Cleveland. This week the test gets a little tougher, against a Miami team, who lost last week at home to New England. SD's strength this year has been rushing the ball, which is exactly why I took them last week, and they didn't disappoint, gaining 228 yards at 6.3 ypr. For the season, they are averaging 5.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr but they'll face a very stiff test this week against a Miami defense, which is allowing just 2.9 ypr against 3.7 ypr. SD doesn't throw the ball well enough (5.2 yps against 5.6 yps) to take advantage of the weakness of the Miami defense, which is their pass defense, allowing 6.4 yps against 6.0 yps. But Miami does throw the ball well themselves, averaging 6.1 yps against 5.8 yps and they'll face a SD secondary that is allowing 6.4 yps against 5.7 yps. SD does qualify in a 152-105-10 home dog momentum situation and my numbers make this line about 1.5. Despite the poor match up for SD, I will lean with the home running dog to get the job done against an average Miami team. MIAMI 21 SAN DIEGO 20
BEST BETS
YTD 19-17-1 +4.10%
3% HOUSTON/INDIANAPOLIS OVER 42.5
2% PITTSBURGH -1
2% STL/PITTSBURGH UNDER 46
2% NY GIANTS +5.5
2% JACKSONVILLE +4
All side opinions went 7-7 last week and they are now 53-45-3 54% over the first seven weeks this year.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND -5 Cleveland 37.5
Everyone keeps waiting for NE to collapse because of all of their injuries but it doesn't look like it's going to happen. During the preseason, NE looked very good. They are starting to look like that team once again. The numbers for NE are really just average, gaining 4.8 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl and allowing 4.9 yppl against teams averaging 4.9 yppl. But, somehow, someway, they are getting the job done. As for Cleveland, they bring an anemic offense (4.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl) along with a better than average defense. Unfortunately for them, there is a weak link to their defense, which is the rush defense. I used SD as my top play last week because of Cleveland's inability to stop the run, allowing 5.1 ypr against teams averaging just 4.2 ypr. And, because of that, NE qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 510-391-30 (21-11-1 TY), including it's best subset, which is 135-56-6 (6-2-1 TY). But Cleveland falls into a very solid contrarian situation, which is 108-55-5 (2-0 TY) and they also qualify in another contrarian turnover situation, which is 754-588-30. Line appears to be about right, but the situations lean towards Cleveland and I will to, in a bounce back roll, after losing as a favorite last week. NEW ENGLAND 17 CLEVELAND 14
BALTIMORE -2 Denver 38
This is a tough game for me to call because the situations lean one way, the value leans another way, yet there are key injuries for Denver that must be accounted for. Misleading final #1 comes from Cincinnati last week, where the Ravens dominated the game from the stats department, but failed on the scoreboard because of turnovers. That's happened a lot this year to them and they'll need to change that if they hope to get any better. Baltimore gained 390 yards last week to only 303 for Cincinnati and averaged 6.6 yppl to only 5.1 yppl for Cincinnati. But a -3 in the turnover department killed any hopes they had of winning that game. Denver also suffered a -3 in the turnover department and was out averaged by Minnesota, 4.7 yppl to 6.8 yppl. In their defense, two long pass plays really did them in, along with an interception returned for a touchdown. But, that's life in the NFL with a back up quarterback. They are now down to their third string qb, in Danny Kanell, who looked pretty good last week. But, often, back up qb's look good until a team sees them on game film and can game plan against them. Baltimore has been just average on offense this year, gaining 5.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.1 yppl. Obviously, they have been very strong rushing the ball (5.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr) and very unproductive throwing the ball, averaging just 4.5 yps against 5.8 yps. They did average 8.9 yps last week so maybe things are changing a little. But they were also playing from behind and some of those yards were mop up yards. Baltimore gets a break this week by going against just an average rush defense, in Denver, who allows 4.1 ypr against 4.1 ypr. The strength of the Denver defense has been their pass defense, which is allowing 5.0 yps against 5.9 yps. But, for a team like Baltimore, who likes to run the ball, they should have some success on the ground. Baltimore actually qualifies in two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 71-31-3 and 129-53-7 and set them up nicely here. The strength of the Denver offense has been their running game, averaging 4.9 ypr against 4.4 ypr but they'll face a Baltimore defense that is above average against both, the run and the pass, allowing just 3.6 ypr against 3.8 ypr. But Baltimore's poor defensive effort last week, allowing 34 points to Cincinnati, sets them up in a negative 60-125-10 situation, including the best subset of that, which is 22-65-2 and plays against Baltimore here. Value also appears to lie with Denver but the situations lean towards Baltimore and so will I. BALTIMORE 21 DENVER 17
PITTSBURGH -1 St. Louis 46
I've gone against the Rams three straight weeks now and lost all three times. And, I'm going against them again this week. The Rams have only played two games on the road this year and haven't been on the road in over a month (three straight home games surrounding a bye week). The Steelers come off a bye week, after playing a good game at Denver but coming up short (they did cover for me as a 3% play). If you go back to my write up for that Denver game, you'll notice how I commented on Pittsburgh's defense has played fantastic this year but they've been given extremely short fields to play with because of turnovers. I talked about how they had allowed 62 points either directly to turnovers or kick returns or their opponent having to go less than 25 yards for a touchdown. I talked about if you removed those numbers from their defense, they were allowing only 14 points per game, instead of the 26 points per game they were allowing going into that game. They only turned it over once in that game and allowed Denver only 17 points. Their defense has been solid, allowing just 4.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl, which includes just 3.5 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 5.5 yps against 6.2 yps. And that will match up very well against the Rams offense, which isn't running the ball well at all, averaging just 3.6 ypr against 4.0 ypr. Until last week's outburst of 4.9 ypr against GB, the Rams hadn't topped the 3.8 ypr mark. The reason I've chosen to go against the Rams as of late is because of their defense. The defense is just not that good. They are allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.2 yppl, which includes 4.5 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 5.9 yps against 5.8 yps. Take out their two games against anemic teams Arizona and Atlanta, and they have allowed at least 4.4 ypr to every other team. Can Pittsburgh take advantage of that? I'm not sure because their rushing offense has been terrible this year too, averaging just 3.2 ypr against 4.3 ypr. But, at home, they haven't allowed a team to rush for better than 3.8 ypr, which includes their game against Baltimore. So, I don't think either team will rush the ball very well, but I think Pittsburgh has the better chance to succeed. Pittsburgh has been successful again this year throwing the ball, averaging 5.8 yps against 5.6 yps so they should have some success in the air again this week. With the turnover problem, I think Cowher would like to establish the run a little more and by inserting Bettis into the starting lineup, he may be looking to run the ball a little more as well. The Rams have succeeded partly because they have won the turnover battle the last three weeks but they actually qualify in a negative situation based on that premise, which is a 77-30-1 play against them here. Teams don't continue to turn the ball over or get turnovers, in general, with the exception of a few teams. And, a lot of their success has come because of fumbles, which are even more random, meaning their luck is even more likely to come to an end very soon. The Rams have also scored an awful lot of points here the last few weeks, which has kept this line down. Because of that, they qualify in another negative situation, which is a 79-41-5 play against situation. The Rams, after allowing 11 sacks the first two weeks, are now keeping more people on the offensive line to block for Bulger (only three sacks the last four weeks). That generally means they are only sending two and sometimes three receivers downfield, and keeping the tight ends in to block. Although they have been able to score some points because of turnovers and anemic teams they have been facing, they aren't the same explosive offense they used to be because of this. Ball control has actually become more important to Mike Martz. That'll suit just fine against a very good Steeler defense. Meanwhile, like I said earlier, I believe Pittsburgh would like to run the ball a little more and take some of the pressure off of Tommy Maddox. This game sets up into two terrific under situations, which are 293-218-11 (7-2 TY) and 222-118-6 (6-1 TY). My final numbers indicate about 43 points being scored but, remember, Pittsburgh is actually allowing about 10 points less because of the turnovers they have put themselves in, which means their defense is really only allowing about 14 points per game instead of the 24 points per game their numbers show. And, the Rams have succeeded as of late because of turnovers, which are due to turn on them. Pittsburgh and the under look to be the winning ticket here. PITTSBURGH 24 ST LOUIS 14
Seattle -1.5 CINCINNATI 42
Read my write up on the Baltimore/Denver game to find out how misleading Cincinnati's final last week was. And, quite honestly, so was Seattle's. Seattle dominated that game, from a stats standpoint, gaining 335 yards to only 221 for Chicago and averaging 5.9 yppl to just 3.2 for the Bears. Turnovers were even but for some reason, they just couldn't put the Bears away. Chicago did control the clock, with 34+ minutes of ball control, which had something to do with it. Cincinnati does qualify in a 152-102-10 home underdog momentum situation this week but Seattle qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 210-391-30 (21-11-1 TY) but they don't qualify in any of the better subsets. Let's face it. Seattle has the better offense (5.3 yppl against 5.2 yppl to just 4.7 yppl for Cincy against 4.8 yppl) and the much better defense. Their defense is allowing just 4.5 yppl against teams averaging 5.2 yppl, while Cincy is allowing 5.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl. The strength of Cincinnati's offense has been their passing game, averaging 6.1 yps against 5.2 yps but they'll face a very tough test against Seattle's pass defense, which is allowing just 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps. Very short number for the team with the better offense and defense, who should be focused after seeing what Cincinnati did to Baltimore last week and getting their own scare against Chicago last week. SEATTLE 23 CINCINNATI 15
CHICAGO -3 Detroit
Does anyone really care about this game? Detroit is below average on offense, gaining just 4.4 yppl against 4.9 yppl but their rushing offense has been getting better, averaging 3.8 ypr against 3.9 ypr. They'll go against a Chicago defense that is allowing 5.5 yppl against 5.5 yppl but has been poor against the rush, allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.5 ypr. For Chicago on offense, they are below average, gaining just 4.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl, including being good with the rush (4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr) but poor with the passing game (3.7 yps against 5.7 yps). They'll face a Detroit defense, which is about average, allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.5 yppl but better against the rush than the pass. But, the Bears can't throw the ball anyway, and with Chris Chandler at qb, he's a sitting duck with any type of pass rush. Both teams qualify in contrarian situations, but the value seems to lie with Detroit and I will lean that way as well, because of the value and the match up seems to favor Detroit slightly. DETROIT 23 CHICAGO 19
MINNESOTA -5.5 NY Giants 44
If you believe turnovers never change and teams getting them continue to get them and teams committing them continue to commit them, then the Vikings are your play this week. But, I'm telling you that just doesn't happen. Trying to predict when it changes is another battle, in and of itself, but this week looks like a good shot at it happening. The Giants qualify in my turnover table situation, which is 754-588-30 since 1983. The fact the Giants have lost three games in a row is just about directly related to turnovers. And, they must change that if they are to win this week. But looking back at their last three games, they have dominated the competition, only to lose the game because of turnovers. Their game last week was actually even in the turnover battle and they ended up losing the game because of the punt return. But their games against Miami and New England, they won the yardage and yards per play battle but lost because of massive turnovers. For the Vikings, their defense is allowing 5.2 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl but only 17 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game. That means they are allowing the yards but getting the turnovers to keep other teams from scoring. No question the Minnesota passing offense has been nothing short of spectacular this year, gaining 8.3 yps against teams allowing just 6.2 yps. They'll face a Giants defense, which has been above average defending the pass, allowing just 5.4 yps against 5.7 yps. Still, the Vikings will get their yards through the air this week. But the Vikings rushing game hasn't been as good this year, gaining just 4.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr. Even more telling is if you take out their games against Chicago, Detroit and Atlanta (three sorry ass teams), they have failed to average more than 4.3 ypr against Denver, San Francisco and Green Bay. Against those three teams, they are averaging just 3.7 ypr. They are still throwing the ball successfully against those teams but the running game hasn't been as good. And except for the Green Bay game (where the Packers got down early and gave up on the run) and against Detroit, they have allowed at least 4.7 ypr against each of their other opponents, including Atlanta and Chicago (who actually is above average rushing the ball). The Giants average 4.1 ypr against teams allowing 3.5 ypr so they should get some yards rushing the ball and control the clock some. They also have the offensive weapons at the receiver position to do some damage through the air. They just need to stop turning the ball over. The Giants also qualify in another contrarian situation, which is 121-55-6, including a subset of that, which is 105-38-5. The final numbers support Minnesota but they should because of the turnover situation for both teams. That's why I say situations are better indicators than the value because teams don't continue to turn the ball over. Unless your numbers take into account this information, the situations are the better indicator. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 293-218-11 (7-2 TY). MINNESOTA 22 NY GIANTS 21
Tennessee -4 JACKSONVILLE 44
Teams that continue to overcome situations going against them, week after week, are usually teams that go far into the playoffs. I have gone against Tennessee each of the past three weeks and gone 1-2 in those games. The lone win was the New England game and Tennessee could have won and covered that game too. But, the situations go against them this week and they are simply too strong to ignore them. I'll either go down in flames again or they will finally catch up to Tennessee. Misleading boxscore #1 comes from the Titans game last week. Yes, they dominated the game on the scoreboard, winning 37-17. But, if you simply looked at the final numbers, you would have seen Carolina out gain Tennessee 383-348 and out average them 5.5 yppl to 5.4 yppl. And then you would look and see Carolina turned the ball over four times and you might conclude that Carolina was the right side. But, you must look further into the numbers to really realize what happened. Tennessee averaged 3.7 ypr to Carolina's 2.6 ypr and averaged 7.6 yps to Carolina's 6.4 yps. If they won both of those battles, why were they out gained and out averaged? Simply because Tennessee got the lead and ran the ball 36 times to only 17 times for Carolina, while Carolina was playing catch up mode, by throwing the ball 49 times to only 25 times for Tennessee. Just make sure you understand the numbers when you look at them. For this game, the match up is a good one for Jacksonville. This game, as do most games, will come down to turnovers. If Bryon Leftwich, who I like an awful lot, can avoid throwing the turnovers, which might be asking a lot, they can win this game. The weakness to the Tennessee defense, which is allowing 5.7 yppl against 5.1 yppl, is their pass defense, which is allowing 6.6 yps against 6.0 yps. Jacksonville can take advantage of that, as they are averaging 6.3 yps against 6.2 yps and I think they will find some holes in the Tennessee pass defense. The weakness to the Jacksonville defense, is their pass defense as well, allowing 6.4 yps against 6.1 yps. And, they'll face a very stiff challenge from the Tennessee passing game, which is averaging 8.1 yps against 6.2 yps. Tennessee still can't run the ball and Jacksonville stops the run very well, allowing just 3.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr. Hard to tell if that will come into play here with the passing games both likely to succeed but the Jacksonville defense is playing better, from a yards perspective, but allowing points because of the turnovers. I'm betting that changes this week. Jacksonville qualifies in my turnover table situation, which is 754-588-30 since 1983. They also qualify in a two different fundamental rushing situations, which are 108-53-6 and 510-391-30, including a subset, which is 235-134-12. Value lies with Tennessee, of course, but if the turnovers turn a little, Jacksonville stands a good chance. Tennessee, who has been getting the turnovers, also qualifies in a negative 62-101-2 situation that implies their luck will run out this week. The over also looks good in this game, with both teams having the ability to throw the ball in this game. My final number suggest about 51 points being scored. JACKSONVILLE 27 TENNESSEE 24
TAMPA BAY -6.5 Dallas 36.5
Solid match up between two teams heading in opposite directions. I was wrong when I picked Washington over Tampa Bay two weeks ago but was right on, for the same reasons, when I picked San Francisco last week. Actually, in hindsight, SF has a much better defense than Washington and has the big playmakers that were needed to beat Tampa Bay last week. But I took both of those teams because they fit solid fundamental rushing situations. The facts continue that TB can't run the ball (3.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr) and aren't doing much to stop the rush either, allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.2 ypr. Last year their pass defense was out standing, and while it is still above average, it isn't nearly as good, allowing 5.3 yps against 5.5 yps. And, it might continue to get worse with the injuries they are suffering on defense. Life sure is harder when you have injuries and they stayed relatively healthy last year but are finding the going much tougher with their current rash of injuries, which is depleting their depth. This week, Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 510-390-30 (21-11-1 TY), including the best subset, which is 135-56-6 (6-2-1 TY). The Dallas rushing offense is actually below average as well, gaining just 3.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr but their rush defense is outstanding, allowing just 3.2 ypr against 4.0 ypr. And their pass defense is allowing just 4.9 yps against 5.2 yps, which is key against a solid TB pass offense, which is averaging 6.8 yps against 6.3 yps. The Dallas passing offense has been great this year, gaining 7.0 yps against 6.4 yps. They have plenty of speed at the receiver position to take advantage of TB if they come out of the cover-2 scheme and are forced to play man to man defense. TB does qualify in a very solid bounce back situation that is 120-67-4, based on their bad loss last week. And TB is 19-1 off a loss as a favorite in their last 20 tries (2-0 TY) but Bill Parcells is now 34-15-1 as an away dog of more than three points. Situations lean both ways, numbers suggest about a five point game. Looks like a great game to watch but not bet on. I'll lean with the dog. TAMPA BAY 21 DALLAS 17
NEW ORLEANS -2 Carolina 39
Even though I was on Carolina last week because of the situations they were in, I've talked for weeks now about how their record might be a little deceiving. Carolina is allowing just 18 points per game against teams averaging 23 points per game but their defense is allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.4 yppl, which makes their defense average, from a stats standpoint. They are allowing 3.9 ypr against 3.7 ypr, while NO is averaging 4.4 ypr against 4.2 ypr and should be able to move the ball some on this defense. The NO defense is just average, as well, allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl but the Carolina offense has been below average, averaging just 4.9 yppl against 5.4 yppl and they've been horrific trying to throw the ball, averaging just 5.4 yps against 6.4 yps. NO does qualify in a 102-60-11 (6-3 TY) home momentum situation based on their convincing win last week but they don't qualify in the better subset (just 34-32 without the subset). My final numbers make this line two so the line appears to be about right. I will side with, what I consider to be the better team, and that is New Orleans. NEW ORLEANS 20 CAROLINA 15
San Francisco -6.5 ARIZONA 41
Arizona comes off a bye this week, while San Francisco comes off their dominating win over Tampa Bay last week. I used San Francisco last week because they fit some very strong fundamental rushing situations, and rush they did. SF gained 212 yards rushing last week at 5.2 yards per rush. They also passed the ball for another 246 yards at 8.2 yps, gaining 458 total yards at 6.5 yppl. TB gained 326 themselves at 5.7 yppl. Even with that success, SF is still only gaining 4.4 ypr against 4.5 ypr but their passing game has been succeeding, gaining 6.0 yps against 5.6 yps. As I mentioned last week, it's been their defense that is playing so well for them, allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.1 yppl and succeeding against both, the run and the pass. For Arizona, well, their defense hasn't been that good, although they have defended the run pretty well, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 4.4 ypr but they're allowing a whopping 6.9 yps against 5.9 yps. They can't run the ball themselves, gaining just 3.4 ypr against 3.9 yps but they have thrown the ball well, gaining 5.9 yps against 5.7 yps. Arizona qualifies as a turnover table system play, which is 754-688-30 since 1983 and they also qualify in another contrarian situation. Final numbers support SF but the situations are always considered stronger for me and I will lean their way. Arizona simply isn't good enough for me to play but the situations dictate SF comes back down to earth and Arizona rises to the occasion. SAN FRANCISCO 21 ARIZONA 20
PHILADELPHIA -3 NY Jets 36.5
Chad Pennington will play in this game, although he won't start. I've been saying for weeks now that the Jets offense has actually played well, in terms of gaining yards, but they haven't been able to turn those yards into points. They are averaging 5.1 yppl against 5.0 yppl so they are above average but only scoring 16 points per game against teams allowing 19 points per game. They have thrown the ball well, averaging 6.3 yps against 5.9 yps but they will face a stiff test from the Philadelphia secondary this week, which is allowing 5.6 yps against 6.0 yps. The Jets haven't been able to run the ball, gaining just 3.4 ypr against 3.7 ypr and I don't see that changing much against a Philly defense, which is allowing just 3.0 ypr against 3.7 ypr. The Jets did rush the ball well last week, gaining 136 yards at 5.0 ypr and they have gained at least 118 yards in each of their last two games, but two games ago, they still only averaged 3.6 ypr so I can't really say their rushing game is back yet. Meanwhile, I don't see them stopping Philly from running the ball. Yes, Philly has been terrible trying to pass the ball this year, gaining just 3.5 yps against 5.4 yps and the Jets have stopped the pass very well, allowing just 5.4 yps against 6.1 yps. But when it comes to the run, Philly is averaging 4.8 ypr against 3.8 ypr and the Jets are allowing 4.4 ypr against 3.7 ypr. Two games ago the Jets held Buffalo to just 53 yards at 2.8 ypr but Buffalo has been terrible trying to run the ball and played most of the game from behind. In every other game, the Jets have allowed teams to rush for at least 147 yards and 4.1 ypr, at a minimum, including allowing Houston to run for 169 yards at 4.7 ypr last week. Philly qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 510-391-30 (21-11-1 TY) but they don't qualify in any of the better subsets. They also qualify in another rushing situation, which is 128-50-7. Final numbers actually support the Jets to win this game by three points but, as I have said all year, the situations are stronger than the final numbers and I will lean with them and Philadelphia to be able to get the job done on the ground on Sunday. PHILADELPHIA 20 NY JETS 14
INDIANAPOLIS -13 Houston 42.5
The situations lean heavily towards Houston this week. They have leaned towards Houston in each of the past two weeks as well but Houston has failed to cover those games. Why? Simply because they have had bad match ups the last two weeks, and guess what? They get another bad match up again this week. The problem with Houston is their pass defense, which is allowing an unheard of 8.0 yps against teams averaging just 6.7 yps. The rush defense hasn't been good either, allowing 4.2 ypr against 3.8 ypr but it sure looks respectable when you compare it to their pass defense. Indy must be chomping at the bit to play Houston as they average 7.5 yps against 6.0 yps. Indy hasn't run the ball well this year, gaining just 3.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr but if they can throw at will, they will eventually be able to run the ball as well against a poor Houston rush defense. Meanwhile, the Indy defense hasn't been too stellar themselves, playing their cover-2 schemes, which has allowed teams to rush for 4.7 ypr against 3.8 ypr. They have played solid pass defense, allowing just 5.8 yps against 6.4 yps but they'll face a pretty good Houston passing attack, that is averaging 6.5 yps against 6.1 yps. When Houston has played the other elite passing teams in the league, they have been lit up, allowing 42 points to Kansas City (7.0 yps against 6.1 yps) and 38 points to Tennessee (8.1 yps against 6.2 yps) and I don't see it being much different this week. Indy allows 5.3 yppl and against the two other teams they have faced this year that allow at least 5.3 yppl or more, Houston has scored 14 points against Kansas City (5.4 yppl) and 17 points against Tennessee (5.7 yppl). If they can get their 17 points in this game, which I think they can (Indy has allowed 21+ points in each of their last three games), then this game should fly over the total of 43. Indianapolis should be good for 28 points, at least, and Houston should be able to get their 20 points. This game actually qualifies in a 75-41-2 over situation, which is 2-0 this year. My final numbers show about 52 points being scored in this game and I think there is tremendous value towards the over, along with a solid situation to support it. Houston does qualify in a very solid contrarian situation, which is 104-37-5. Because of the situations, despite the poor match up, I will lean towards Houston, but the play here is the over. INDIANAPOLIS 31 HOUSTON 20
KANSAS CITY -6.5 Buffalo 43.5
The mood in Buffalo isn't very good, knowing this team has underachieved their expectations so far this year but maybe last week provided a glimpse of hope for the Bills. Buffalo destroyed what is appearing to be a weak Washington team. Buffalo gained 432 yards at 6.5 yppl and allowed Washington to only gain 169 yards at 3.2 yppl. But, most surprising for Buffalo, was their rushing game, which gained 196 yards at 5.0 ypr. That was obviously solid improvement but still leaves the team averaging only 3.1 ypr against 3.6 ypr. The passing game has been about average and may be without Eric Moulds again this week. But their defense has played fantastic so far, allowing just 4.2 yppl against 4.8 yppl and they have defended the pass extremely well, allowing just 4.6 yps against 5.6 yps. Their rushing defense has been about average, allowing 3.9 ypr against 3.8 ypr. Naturally they will get a solid test from the undefeated Chiefs this week. Kansas City had won three straight games that they may not have deserved to win before finally playing a solid game last week. Although it came down to the last play, they played well enough to deserve that win. The Chiefs offense has played well this year, although not quite as well as some people expect. Still, they are averaging 5.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl and throwing the ball for 7.0 yps against 6.1 yps. Again, they will face a very good test from Buffalo this week because the Bills defend the pass extremely well. On defense, KC has been much better than last year, but still average, allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.3 yppl. Kansas City qualifies in a 168-118-9 situation that actually plays against Buffalo in a letdown spot. That situation is a winner but not the strongest situations that I use. The value also appears to lie with Kansas City here. I will lean with them because of the situation and the value but I think Buffalo could be a pretty good dog in this game. KANSAS CITY 26 BUFFALO 17
Miami -3 SAN DIEGO 37.5
San Diego won their first game last week, in easy fashion over Cleveland. This week the test gets a little tougher, against a Miami team, who lost last week at home to New England. SD's strength this year has been rushing the ball, which is exactly why I took them last week, and they didn't disappoint, gaining 228 yards at 6.3 ypr. For the season, they are averaging 5.4 ypr against 4.3 ypr but they'll face a very stiff test this week against a Miami defense, which is allowing just 2.9 ypr against 3.7 ypr. SD doesn't throw the ball well enough (5.2 yps against 5.6 yps) to take advantage of the weakness of the Miami defense, which is their pass defense, allowing 6.4 yps against 6.0 yps. But Miami does throw the ball well themselves, averaging 6.1 yps against 5.8 yps and they'll face a SD secondary that is allowing 6.4 yps against 5.7 yps. SD does qualify in a 152-105-10 home dog momentum situation and my numbers make this line about 1.5. Despite the poor match up for SD, I will lean with the home running dog to get the job done against an average Miami team. MIAMI 21 SAN DIEGO 20
BEST BETS
YTD 19-17-1 +4.10%
3% HOUSTON/INDIANAPOLIS OVER 42.5
2% PITTSBURGH -1
2% STL/PITTSBURGH UNDER 46
2% NY GIANTS +5.5
2% JACKSONVILLE +4
