NFL Week #3 5-3-1 YTD

SmokeDetector · Sep 19, 2003

NYJ +6 1/2: NE is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in its L6 games hosting NYJ. They are coming off a big win and the number is likely overvalued.

Tampa Bay -4: ATL is 0-5 SU and ATS in its L5 games vs. TB. Expect nothing different as a Bucs team is out to prove they are STILL the SB Champs.

Miami -3: Biggest trap of the weekend. Don't fall victim to those who say "Buffalo is undefeated with a passing game and Miami is ranked 32nd in the pass defense." It don't work that way my friends. Miami is giving points for a reason. They are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in its L9 games hosting Bills.

jaypaw · Sep 19, 2003

I agree on the jets but I think it has less to do with their history against the pats in the last 6 games than it does with the way the pats are banged up - and I think will have a tougher time pulling off the "3 corner" set against these guys and with johnson and now colvin out I think that this may actually be a chance for the jets to get something going - the way vinny likes it, underneath - against a weakened linebacking corps. Belechick may whip em into shape and bring it against the weak jets line - but now would be as good a time as any for the Jmen to pick it up.

I like tampa too - and again - less because of their history against the falcons in the last 5 games but more because of how their D matches up with Atlanta's offense. I think they should be able to "bounce back" (god that is overused) by shutting em down on O and forcing them into situations that "sling" wont be ready for...

I went with buffalo but yer reasoning looks good - however again, I dont think their last 9 games have much to do with this matchup. The bills are much improved - vinny threw for 373 last week against the fins secondary and the texans threw for 266 - so I kinda have to fall for that "Buffalo is undefeated with a passing game and Miami is ranked 32nd in the pass defense." it is a classic situation of where a team has a strength and the other has a weakness. it should be a tough game but miami has given up the long ball this year and the bills can chuck it if need be.

just my 3 cents

Oren1 · Sep 19, 2003

I thought Miami had the #6 pass defense so far this year?

jaypaw · Sep 19, 2003

nope - they are last in yds per game at 316...

jaypaw · Sep 19, 2003

also last in total yards - at 632...

But its only been 2 games - who knows.

All I know is that they gave up lots of passing yds vs the texans - who all last year averaged 139.1yds, and against the jets - -who lost their leading 2002 receiver .

SmokeDetector · Sep 20, 2003

Jaypaw-

I liked your thoughts. However, I do look for a ball control plan by the Dolphins. RUN RICKY RUN! And I'm not even close to being a PHINS fan. For the life of me, I cannot see how the Miami defense goes from being so steady a year ago to what they have been in the first two games. The two teams they have faced so far have WRs who are deep threats, as where the Bills have two possession-type receivers in Moulds and Reed, who both live on yards after the catch...I don't look for these two guys to thrive on Sunday!

My two cents!

SD

jaypaw · Sep 20, 2003

good points man.

I hope yer wrong !

its reasonable to think that with - the unexpected bad play of Miamis D and the seemingly unstoppable play of the bills in the air - something has to give for things to balance out. This one may have trapped me...

hope not