NFL Survivor Picks
Week 15. What an achievement if you’ve made it this far in Survivor, especially with how rough of a start to the season most people had. This week is a tough one if you don’t have the Ravens available and most people probably don’t. This is one of those weeks where the decision looks kind of agonizing and there is a lot of money on the line at this point.The question always comes up about hedging. When my partner Marc Goldberg (Spooky Express) and I got deeper into the season, we started trading and swapping pieces and parts of entries with our Circa Survivor competitors so that we had some equity in other people that had different teams than we did. That is definitely an option for you if you are in a contest that big or even in a smaller contest. Reach out to those still alive and see if some 10%, 15%, etc. swaps would interest them. That way, you don’t leave empty-handed for all of the hard work to this point.
If you don’t want to get others involved, you can play against your pick or on/against the available teams of others, but that can be a deep rabbit hole that can be very costly. It’s an option, but make sure you plan it out really well, as you would any option at this point.
But it is still critically important to look at the team schedules the rest of the way and make sure that you are using the team in question at the most optimal time possible. The Survivor tools over at PoolGenius can help with that, and so can this week’s article.
Week 15 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Baltimore Ravens (-16) over New York Giants
What a gift from the football gods if you have the Ravens available. For the purposes of this article, I used them back in Week 2 when they somehow lost to the Raiders. I’m trying to not repeat teams, even though this article “entry” was one of many victims in Week 1 thanks to the Bengals.Nevertheless, the Ravens are clearly the option if you have them and I don’t really need to go deeper than that as the biggest favorite this season.
PoolGenius lists the Ravens at 90% win probability.
Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) over Chicago Bears
Daaaaaa Bears would absolutely give Bill Swerski his 37th heart attack with the way that they’ve played this season. The Vikings had all sorts of issues with Chicago last time out, as the game required overtime and the Vikings prevailed 30-27.The Bears have not replicated their offensive performance from that game over the last two games. They had 320 passing yards and 398 total yards in that game against Minnesota. They have 301 and 162 yards, respectively, in the losses to the Lions and 49ers. It is a seven-game losing streak now for the Bears since the bye week. They’ve given up over 400 yards in each of the last three games.
Minnesota is looking to keep pace with the Lions, so they’re plenty motivated at this time of the year. They’re also 11-2 and riding a six-game winning streak. They just gave up nearly 500 yards to the Falcons, so that feels a little worrisome, especially with the success Chicago had a few weeks ago. But, still. These are two teams in very, very different spots on Monday night.
This is the last good opportunity to take Minnesota, as they finish up with Seattle, Green Bay, and Detroit.
The Vikings are 73% at PoolGenius.
Denver Broncos (-4) over Indianapolis Colts
The Broncos are a team that you may still have available. I’ve maintained all season long that the Colts are a better team than their record, but maybe they’re not. They barely beat the Patriots and Jets in their last two wins and have losses to four playoff teams in the Lions, Bills, Vikings, and Texans. The Broncos will be a playoff team barring a huge collapse.The Colts are off of the bye, but so are the Broncos, so these are two well-rested teams. I like Shane Steichen a lot, but you have to think Sean Payton will have the home favorite ready to go in this one. The Broncos are the top defense in the NFL by EPA/play. The Colts are 12th. Denver also has the better offense by that metric and probably the much safer QB option in Bo Nix.
If you have Denver, this is the best spot and maybe the only spot as they’re at the Chargers and Bengals the next two weeks and then host the Chiefs.
The Broncos are 65% at PoolGenius to win this week.
Week 15 NFL Survivor Pick
Arizona Cardinals (-6) over New England Patriots
As I said, my goal is to try and isolate a team that people are still likely to have. I don’t know that there has been a great spot to take the Cardinals and certainly not lately. But, this is a massive step down in class for Jonathan Gannon’s team after losing twice to the Seahawks with a loss to Minnesota in between.Gannon had a lot of success in Philadelphia pressuring the quarterback and he should be able to find similar opportunities here against a New England front that is just awful. I really expected the pass rush to be stronger for Arizona with some of the additions and draft picks, though injuries have not helped in that regard.
Nevertheless, this is a terrific matchup for Kyler Murray and the passing game, as the Patriots rank 31st in Dropback EPA and 29th in Dropback Success Rate. They’ve been a bit better against the run, but that isn’t a big part of Drew Petzing’s offense.
I realize that the Patriots are off of the bye, but in a 3-10 season, that isn’t always a good thing since the guys would rather be on a beach somewhere instead of back on the field and it is pretty much a must-win for the Cardinals if they want to stay alive in the NFC West race.
Arizona does face Carolina next week, but it is an early kick with cross-country travel, so I definitely prefer this spot.
PoolGenius has the Cardinals at 72% to win.
Week 15 Survivor Pick: Cardinals
